Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Sunday, October 18 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 4.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Smart N Centsible (4th Race)
Fourth Race
1. Smart N Centsible
2. Munningsredprince
3. Croatoan
Really don’t care about SMART N CENTSIBLE’s debut dud on turf. Far more interesting are the quite encouraging dirt workout videos for a horse running down with $30K maidens. Expect much better than his last – though possibly at a price much lower than the listed odds. Ohio-based trainer R Cline is 0-6 the last five years at KEE. Wins with firsters at a decent clip; the sample size with firster in maiden claimers is too small to be of much use. MUNNINGSREDPRINCE has a solid enough looking Belterra workout pattern that I’d have to guess he shows up at Keeneland for good reason. As with Munningsredprince, we can’t see any workout video for debuting CROATOAN, but the times and pattern encourage, and would rather guess at a firster like this at a price than debuting INFORMER, who’s listed at 2-1.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Sunday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. No What Ifs
2. Carol’s Melody
3. Tizianna
NO WHAT IFS looked like she got tired returning in August at Colonial from a long layoff. She looked in her most recent start at Churchill – nothing like her best self, failing even to muster her usual positional pace. Clearly, the mare is capable of much better – or, at least, was capable last year. And was capable at Keeneland – if she could get back to the way she ran last October – and connections, while dropping from allowance competition, still run her above the claim price they paid – she can beat favored CAROL’S MELODY. Just a 3yo, Carol’s Melody’s form really leapt forward after a claim three back – everything in trainer E Kenneally’s barn seems to be running like that this fall. At something like the published odds, I’d be a little skeptical that this two-race peak sustains, though drawn outside in a relatively short field, she probably gets the clean stalking trip she wants. Thought going in that TIZIANNA was very well meant last time, and she was – claimed and stepped way up in class, and I wonder if she still might have another level to find.
Second Race
1. Richiesgoldengirl
2. Spun Up
3. Flirtin Again
Will take it as no coincidence that RICHIESGOLDENGIRL’s best race by a fairly wide margin among six starts came in her lone route. Granted, it was Fairmount, and this competition will prove stiffer, but she showed she can roll right along if able to make a clear lead – and she might be able to in this spot. It has been very, very hard to pass the leader at the top of the stretch in 1 1/16-mile contests much of this meet. SPUN UP on paper at least is a better horse on turf than dirt, and won’t run back to her recent grass form. But she will, with a decent break take up a stalking or pressing position behind Richie, and my guess is they go one-two all the way around. When I back an A Shorter-trained horse, I want a price, not a 5-2 morning favorite like FLIRTIN AGAIN. Not sure she actually will be favored, though Wits and Wagers, who won earlier in the KEE meet, did flatter the race – that looked poor at the time – both Flirtin again and Parking Lot Pours exit.
Third Race
1. Single Dot Yaht
2. Excel Calculator
3. Bestfriend Rocket
Granted, it was three Octobers ago, but SINGLE DOT YAHT does have a dirt-route win at the Keeneland fall meet. The 6yo has been in steady decline, unfortunately, since 2024. Dropped to lowest level last out, way back on May 7, ran poorly, and a $25K claim was voided. Goes for an even lower tag now – but I’ll guess the barn has him fully set to win off the break. The work pattern says they’ve been able to train him as one would hope with a horse trying to get fit coming back from a five-month layoff, and he has the right running style if my guess is correct and this race goes off at a fast pace. That pace setup is really the only reason I included EXCEL CALCULATOR and BESTFRIEND ROCKET. EC at least has been in respectable form, though not his best, and will slog through the nine furlongs with some degree of effectiveness. Bestfriend Rocket runs first off the claim for half the price these connections paid, and even if you add up the winner’s share of the purse and the $16K they’d get if he’s taken, it still doesn’t suggest they really value what they bought.
Fifth Race
1. Judge Davis
2. Show of Force
3. Johny’s Rendezvous
Seems like JUDGE DAVIS, five races into his form cycle and after three higher-end performances, was just over the top when last seen in the IND stakes race a few months ago. Trainer M Maker off this kind of layoff with older turf route horses? That is no concern at all. You’ve got the drop back into allowance company and the very good April race over the KEE course; moved too early into a strong pace, and was run down by Just a Touch, who subsequently won turf stakes races. SHOW OF FORCE might not be good enough, and his last-out victory won’t win this race, but he got over a yielding course very well two starts back, which could come into play here, and does seem like a 4yo gelding on the upswing whose ceiling we don’t yet know. JOHNY’S RENDEZVOUS chances hinge on how much pace shows from the outside, because, drawn on the rail, he’s surely going forward. Capable on his day.
Sixth Race
1. Skindred Spirit
2. First Look
3. Appeals to Me
SKINDRED SPIRIT did most of his breezing toward this debut at Ellis Park, where we don’t get work video, but we can get a look at that most recent CD gate drill – and putting that visual together with the on-paper pattern, I like the horse. Broke outside two workmates and was always going better than them – going well, in fact, in his own right – and despite obviously losing ground on the turn, he was the one who came onto the backstretch with momentum. Just one work video from KEE-based firster FIRST LOOK, that the Sept. 19 breeze. It’s far from a definitive video, but she looks racy and talented. I’m bullish. You don’t see many B Cox-trained live maidens take a lead at the stretch call and get run down like APPEALS TO ME did. Kind of a funky drying-out track, and she can do better, but I doubt the price is right.
Seventh Race
1. Pretty Tapit
2. Massarat
3. Venencia
There’s the class element, sure, because she comes out of an N1X allowance and into a graded stakes race, but even more so, the big question is how much Kentucky Downs had to do with PRETTY TAPIT’s breakout performance last time. My guess is – not everything. Her actual breakout came three back in the CD maiden win in her first try out at this 1 1/2-mile trip – she might well have run better than the Beyer figure implies. At Saratoga two back, the filly never looked comfortable – pulled a little too hard, had her ears pinned going past the wire for the first time – I’m throwing it out. She traveled sweetly at KD and perhaps even more so in work video of the 10/10 KEE grass drill. Think she’ll handle the ground and can get first run sitting off Modarosa’s pace. MASSARAT holds appeal, too. They keep taking a very hard hold of her early to get her well back off the pace – and she keeps catching false-paced races that give her no chance to catch up to the leaders. Moreover, she has struggled to properly settle, though three back she did all right. Galloped out in front, actually, when finishing very well in the Glens Falls. VENENCIA looks like a shadow of the horse that won this race a year ago, but her proven ability to stay 1 1/2 miles and go well over a wet fall KEE course could go a long way toward a bounce-back.
Eighth Race
1. Kid Twist
2. Ring Curl
3. Rocky Raccoon
Trainer A Shorter, mentioned in an earlier-race analysis, has two horses racing on this card first off the claim, which has been a good move for the barn. KID TWIST listed at what would be a very fair 10-1; consistently competitive form, a decent race over the surface, and my guess is he gets a favorable stalking trip behind an honest pace. In a vacuum I might prefer RING CURL, but he’s drawn down inside without quite the speed to make the lead, and his trip could turn quite tricky. ROCKY RACCOON just won Oct. 3 at Remington (trainer S Asmussen has so many tracks at which to find races for his vast equine holdings). He looked kind of at the end of his rope both in that seven-furlong contest and the one before it, and this cut back to 6f might help him. I’m a sucker for competitive stalking types with outside draws.
Ninth Race
1. Time in Motion
2. Which One
3. Bold Speaker
Am fairly sure TIME IN MOTION will go off a considerably heavier favorite than the listed 5-2. Thought his SAR debut was both encouraging and useful, expected him to improve second time out, and he did – only to run into a B Walsh-trained first-time starting buzzsaw named Not For Long, who simply ran him down. Perhaps there’s another such rival lurking in this field – I can’t find one. WHICH ONE debuts for barn that will pop with a KEE firster here and there; One work video – body type of a grass route horse, it seems, and finished with good energy on the KEE dirt. BOLD SPEAKER came under a ride more than 5 /16 out in his last race and went very flat thereafter – might have disliked the Kentucky Downs experience, though Walsh adds blinkers, so maybe it was more than merely that. His debut at Ellis was much better – though not good enough to take down the top pick.
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