Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 8:
This is one of the busiest weeks of the year in the Tuley’s Takes home office, with our regular NFL and CFB columns on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, plus our annual horse racing columns on the two-day Breeders’ Cup Friday and Saturday.
And longtime readers know our plate is also full, as Halloween is a big deal at the Tuley Haunted Mansion, with annual traditions like decorations, pumpkin patches, haunted houses/mazes (Moapa Haunted Corn Maze was Tuesday night), parties, trick-or-treating, etc. Don’t get me started on how busy I used to be when the World Series of Poker held its “November Nine” Main Event final table that same week, but thankfully I’m not juggling that at this time of year anymore.
Anyway, all of this monthly madness hasn’t hurt our handicapping as we went 3-2 ATS again with our NFL Best Bets here in Week 7 (and 3-1 ATS in CFB Week 8) to sit right around 60% for the season at 22-15-3 ATS (technically 59.5%) after a slow start.
In Week 7, we won with the Giants +10.5 in their 27-21 OT win at the Texans, Colts +6.5 in their 16-10 loss at the Vikings, and Packers +3.5 in their 20-17 loss at the Lions, with losses on the Saints +3.5 in their 16-10 loss to the Steelers in Paris and Eagles +4.5 in their 38-21 home loss to the Cowboys on Monday Night Football.
Even though our 3-2 ATS mark wasn’t as good as in other recent weeks, we felt just as good about it, as favorites led 8-6 ATS in Week 8, so we outperformed the market and found the right plays with our “dog or pass” approach. On the season, my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines (tracked on Twitter/X at @ViewFromVegas) have dogs leading 54-45-6 ATS (54.5%), so we’re also beating dogs in general by being selective.
As for our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, we had another winning week as our recommended plays (all advantage teasers including the key numbers of 3 and 7, aka “Wong Teasers” for the old-timers) went 3-1 with the Patriots +9, Buccaneers +9, and Titans +8 all winning their legs but unfortunately lost our anchor play on Sunday night with the Chiefs +9. As I wrote the last two weeks: Because of this success, we’ll keep pointing out our teaser plays, though we always stress to not only shop around for the best lines to tease (through the key numbers of 3 and 7) but also the lowest juice.
Enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes), let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 8 schedule, which again has just 14 games this weekend with the Giants, 49ers, Texans and Saints having their bye week. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Carolina at Green Bay (-3.5)
Before the season, this didn’t look like an attractive Thursday Night Football matchup, but the Panthers are in first place in the NFC South (albeit with a 3-3 record while the Packers are still in the Wild Card hunt at 4-3. The advance line for this game was Packers -3.5 and reopened at -4.5 on Sunday afternoon after the Panthers were blown out 43-13 by the Buccaneers and the Packers lost 20-17 at Detroit. However, the line has since been bet back down to 3.5, and I feel the money is on the right side. I like betting teams off a blowout loss as they’re obviously embarrassed and will make necessary adjustments on both sides of the ball. In addition, the Panthers have covered the last 13 times after an outright loss, so they’re used to bouncing back. It should be noted that primetime favorites went 3-0 ATS this past weekend after an underdog run of 12-0 ATS the prior four weeks, but hopefully the primetime dogs are barking again in Week 8.
Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Packers still 67/33 in SU pools; note: as I’ve written several times the last few weeks, these percentages basically meant that if these two teams were to play three times, the dog would win once and the fave would win twice but only cover once, hence the 67/33 splits).
Minnesota at Detroit (-3.5)
Moving to Sunday (and no early international games, hurray!), the advance line for this NFC North matchup was Lions -2.5 -120. After the Vikings beat the Colts 16-10 as 6.5-point favorites and the Lions beat the Packers 20-17 as 3.5-point favorites (both failed to cover by half a point), the Lions reopened -3 and have since been up to a consensus -3.5. Did bettors see Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs intentionally go down when the Packers were trying to let him score a TD and feel the Lions could have or should have covered? Personally, I see it the opposite way, in that it shows the Lions only care about winning and would do it again (note: this is another unspoken additional reason why I see more value in betting dogs overall). In addition, the Vikings are undefeated and mostly winning with their defense, but the offense might step up this week against the Lions’ No. 32-ranked defense (391 yards per game!).
Best Bet: Vikings +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Vikings 67/33 in ATS contests, but Lion still 67/33 in SU pools – see TNF).
Las Vegas at New York Jets (-1.5)
The Raiders started 3-0 but have come back to reality with four straight losses, and the countdown has started on when No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza will take over at QB. For now, the Raiders believe Kirk Cousins gives them the best chance, so they’re sticking with him. They’re definitely taking a step down in class (to steal a horse racing phrase since it’s Breeders’ Cup Week) here after losing to the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills and Rams. Still, I’m not confident of a minor upset, so we’ll start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio here by moving the Raiders up to +7.5 with 6-point teasers and through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Best Bet: Raiders +7.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests, but Jets 60/40 in SU pools).
Arizona at Dallas (-6.5)
I wrote about “Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde teams” last week (since I’ve been watching the classic story on Turner Classic Movies, including Bugs Bunny and Sylvester/Tweety versions, with Halloween approaching) and these two teams fit the bill. The line opened at Cowboys -5.5 last week before the Cardinals were blown out 30-16 by the Broncos and the Cowboys pulled away to beat the Eagles 38-21 on Monday night. However, the line has only increased to -6.5, which is too short for me to trust the Cardinals with a wager.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Cowboys 70/30 in SU pools).
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
The Buccaneers lost their first five games but have to feel they’re back in the hunt in the weak NFC South after winning two straight and getting QB Baker Mayfield back. And I get why this line has gone from pick-’em to Bucs -2.5 as the Falcons have the fourth-worst pass defense. So, I can’t take the short number on Atlanta. However, the Falcons’ offense has shown signs of competence since Michael Penix Jr’s return, and this should be a one-score game as both teams try to catch the Panthers in the division, so we’ll add it to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
Best Bet: Falcons +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Baltimore at Buffalo (-3 -120)
This is one of Week 8’s marquee games: the AFC East-leading Bills (5-1) host the Ravens (4-3), who are last in the AFC North but are expecting to get back QB Lamar Jackson, who practiced Wednesday. The advance line was Bills -3 but was raised to -3.5 on Sunday afternoon after the Ravens lost 35-13 to the Bengals, but that was with Tyler Huntley, and most reports were that Jackson would be back for this battle. The line has since dipped back to -3 at most books, though most are attaching -115 or -120. That’s too short for me to fade the Bills fresh off their bye, especially since I thought the line wasn’t high enough at 3.5 and didn’t bet it then either.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bills still 65/35 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-10)
The advance line for this AFC South matchup was Jaguars -7.5. While the Jags were on a bye, the Colts lost 16-10 at the undefeated Vikings and covered as 6.5-point road dogs, and the line reopened at the same -7.5. However, in the last few days, there have been reports of a “fire sale” by the Colts (after firing GM Chris Ballard and trading G Quenton Nelson and DT DeForest Buckner with RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Josh Downs and WR Keenan Allen also being rumored on the trading block), and this line has steamed to double digits. I hear all that news, but I still believe the line has been overinflated and will gladly fade it with the remaining Colts players, as they still gave the Vikings a game and covered for us.
Best Bet: Colts +10 (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 67/33 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 80/20 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Cincinnati (-10.5)
Another double-digit dog, which plays right into our hands, as we’ve done well with dogs getting more than a TD all season. The advance line was Bengals -9.5, then moved to -10.5 after the Bengals routed the Ravens 35-13 and the Titans lost 27-24 to the Browns. Joe Burrow looked great in the second half with four TD passes, but let’s not forget the Bengals looked terrible in the first half as they trailed 13-0, and the Titans, despite winning only one game, have been competitive in most of their games and should be able to keep within one score to get us the cover.
Best Bet: Titans +10.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 90/10 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-3.5)
Hey, this game is for first place in the AFC North between the Browns (5-2) and Steelers (5-2), just like everyone expected at the start of the season, right? Well, we’re not even halfway through the regular season, so it’s no guarantee the winner will win the division come the New Year, but they’ll be in the driver’s seat. The Steelers are favored, but let’s remind everyone that teams coming off an international game in Europe without a bye week are 0-4 SU and ATS this season and 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS since the start of last season (note: to be fair, the 49ers and Rams both won and covered in Week 2 after playing in Australia in their season-opener, but this is still a lot to overcome). Let’s also not forget that the Browns already beat the 27-24 in Week 4, so we know they can play with them. I’m not a big “revenge” handicapper, as I prefer to have the team that proved they could beat the other team, especially when we’re getting points in the rematch and, in this case, more than a FG.
Best Bet: Browns +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 67/33 in ATS contests, but Steelers 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
It’s the battle of Los Angeles, though we all know who L.A.’s team is, even before the Chargers got off to an 0-6 start before their bye week. The Rams, the preseason Super Bowl favorites, have also been underperforming at 3-4, but they are coming off a convincing 35-21 win over the Raiders and trying to get back in the playoff hunt. This line was as high as Rams -7, but I wasn’t tempted to take the Chargers at that number and definitely dipping to 6.5 has me running away. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Rams 75/25 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-1) at Denver
This is definitely the best game in Sunday’s afternoon slate with the AFC West-leading Chiefs (5-1) visiting the Broncos (5-2), and it’s a coin-flip in every way as the Chiefs were -1.5 on the advance line and it only got closer to pick-’em at -1 after the Broncos beat the Cardinals 20-16 and the Chiefs lost 20-3 to the Seahawks. I lean to the Chiefs here off the loss, but not going to lay even one point as it’s “dog or pass” and not “dog or make an exception for small chalk or pass.” This should be a one-score game, so I would consider teasing the Broncos up to +7.5 if the line goes back to 1.5, but otherwise pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Chiefs 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New England (-7) at Miami
Here’s another underdog where I just couldn’t pull the trigger this week. The advance line was Patriots -7.5 and reopened there even though the Pats lost 30-24 at the Bears last Thursday and the Dolphins upset the Jets 28-25 on Sunday for their first win of the season. The spread has since been bet down to 7, but I wasn’t one of the early bettors as I felt the line was too short. And it doesn’t look like it’ll get back to 7.5 as several books are attaching -115 to the Dolphins at +7. Instead, I might add the Pats -1 to our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to mix a favorite in there.
Best Bet: Pass, though maybe Patriots -1 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but Patriots still 70/30 in SU pools).
Philadelphia at Washington (-6)
We usually get a good matchup on Sunday Night Football (helped by the fact the league flexes out late-season duds), but it’s too early for that, and we’re stuck with Eagles (2-5) at Commanders (1-4-1). My one regret last weekend was betting the Eagles +4.5 against the Cowboys on Monday Night Football, even with seeing their loooong injury report. The line for this game was Commanders -3.5 with them on a bye in Week 7 and has steamed to -6 after the Eagles blowout and further injury woes. I hope I don’t regret this, but I’m fading the move again with the Eagles as I don’t see how the Commanders should be favored by this much over anyone. It’s still a division rivalry, and I expect the Eagles to step up and at least get the cover. I keep going back to their leading the Cowboys 7-3 and 14-10 on MNF before the game got away from them in the second half.
Best Bet: Eagles +6 (Pool Play Percentages: Eagles 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 67/33 in SU pools).
Chicago at Seattle (-3 -120)
The Bears come into this appealing MNF matchup at 5-2 and chasing the undefeated Vikings (6-0) in the NFC North, while the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks are 4-3 and chasing the 49ers (6-1), who lost their first game on Sunday to leave the NFC West door open. This should be a primetime game with playoff-type intensity as both teams want to stay in their divisional races, plus this could be a wild-card tiebreaker. I lean toward the Bears plus the points, but +3 is too short for my liking. Several books have gone to -3 -120, so we might see a move to 3.5, which would probably get me to bet on the Bears, though I’m expecting to pass in the Circa Sports Million and the Westgate SuperContest if the contest lines are only 3. The stronger play to me looks to be to anchor my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with Bears +9, as this should be a one-score game with so much on the line.
Best Bet: Bears +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Seahawks still 65/35 in SU pools).
For more Week 8 NFL best bets, visit the Week 8 NFL Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
