NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
My NFL best bets have clearly leveled off in recent weeks since a very hot start to the season. After a 4-6 record last week, I am now at 36-25-2 ATS (59%) after seven weeks. In most cases, I would be thrilled with that kind of result, but only if there were more consistency. I’ve had seasons of 57% and 59% since starting this column five years ago, but the recent mediocrity has stained what looked like a special season. Fortunately, my college stuff was fantastic last week to make up for it. Hopefully, I can get it going again this week.
A word of caution, because I will never forget this…two years ago, in Weeks 8 and 9, I somehow put together back-to-back 1-8 ATS weeks. The fact that I am even bringing this up means I still clearly have some PTSD from it. This week, I even dug through my NFL data log to see if there were any systems I should watch for in these mid-season weeks, and I didn’t find anything worthwhile. Thus, I am going to push forward as normal and consider what happened two years ago just a fluke. After digging through this week’s VSiN NFL Analytics Report, take a look at what I’ve come up with for the NFL weekend.
Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This week’s Atlanta-Tampa Bay line seems like both an overreaction to Tampa Bay’s blowout win over Carolina last week and a lukewarm endorsement of the Bucs’ chances by oddsmakers. Since 2012, NFL teams that beat a point spread by 32 points or more in any given game have gone just 17-16 SU and 10-23 ATS (30.3%) when playing at home the next week. I am not surprised to see most of the bets at DK on the visiting Falcons here.
Look at the interesting betting splits angle on that: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 159-123 ATS (56.4%) record for +23.7 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 92-64 ATS for 59% and +21.6 units of profit.
The Falcons come off a game where they looked pretty good themselves, handing the 49ers their first loss. They also played well recently against TB: Atlanta is 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS versus divisional foe Tampa Bay in the last four seasons. With QB Baker Mayfield back, we need to also consider this unique angle: Tampa Bay’s QB Baker Mayfield is 17-14 SU but 7-24 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
NFL Best Bet: This is a very uncomfortable favorite line; give me Atlanta +2.5
Baltimore Ravens (+3) at Buffalo Bills
With Buffalo coming off its bye week and QB Lamar Jackson returning to the Ravens’ lineup, this is the NFL’s game of the week. It seems to be getting heavily bet, too, with a 4-1 disparity backing the Bills, according to DraftKings. Even still, the DK oddsmakers refuse to budge on the key line of -3. This leads me to believe the experts behind the counter expect a close game. A couple of key systems and prominent trends lead me to take the points.
First, against the Bills: Home teams coming off a high-scoring close win (>= 27 PF, <= 3-point differential) have been a strong fade candidate recently, going 79-66-1 SU but 54-86-6 ATS (38.6%) since 2016. Next, on Jackson and the Ravens: Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-106 SU and 146-111-4 ATS (56.8%) since 2015.
More on Jackson: He is on runs of 9-5 SU and 8-4-1 ATS vs. elite offenses scoring >=27 PPG, and his team is 23-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018. I hate to use the term must-win, but this does seem like a very important game for the Ravens as they sit at 4-3. Even if they don’t win, I do believe this is going to be hotly contested.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with the Ravens +3 at Buffalo
Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (-11.5)
Tennessee almost made it two in a row last week but feel short of an upset win of Cleveland by a late FG. Instead, now sitting 1-6, the Titans will try to generate some momentum heading into their bye week. History however, shows that teams that are struggling are more likely to check out in the game prior to the bye: Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 48-9 SU and 37-19-1 ATS since 2008, 66.1%, +16.1 Units, 28.8% ROI, Grade 67).
As a franchise, Tennessee has gone 4-8 ATS in its last 12 pre-bye week road/neutral contests. From a matchup perspective there are a couple of nice edges with the host Bengals too: First from a head-to-head standpoint, Cincinnati is 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 games versus Tennessee, including pouring in 37 on the Titans two years ago. Cincinnati’s QB Joe Burrow is also 23-12 SU and 24-11 ATS (68.6%) vs. non-divisional AFC foes. DK has moved this line from -10 to -11.5 throughout this week despite only modestly more money coming in on Cincy, almost as if they are baiting us to take Tennessee.
NFL Best Bet: I look for the Bengals -11.5 to score early & often in taking care of Tennessee
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
I’ve seen the trends about teams coming back from overseas without a bye week, which would negatively impact Pittsburgh here, but I simply can’t get over the facts that the Steelers seem to be putting it together now, have played extremely well at home this season, and have raved about how nice the flight home was from Paris. Specifically, QB Aaron Rodgers indicated it was the nicest flight home he’s ever had from a road trip. Speaking of the veteran QB, Pittsburgh’s QB Rodgers is on a 10-1 SU and ATS run as a divisional home favorite. He has re-teamed up with head coach Mike McCarthy this season, and it seems to be working.
By the way, retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 27-19 ATS (58.7%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. This trend is on a 16-5 ATS run heading into 2026. Yes, this is a rematch of Cleveland’s 27-24 win last month. The Browns are on a lengthy 12-30-1 ATS rematch skid in their last 43, as well as 27-41 ATS (39.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015. Including that earlier Cleveland win, this h2h series has also belonged to the hosts: Home teams are 15-2-1 SU and 15-3 ATS in the Browns-Steelers AFC North rivalry since the start of the 2018 season.
Perhaps more important than anything else here is that Pittsburgh heads to its bye after this week: There are two key systems in place: 1) Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-28-1 ATS since 2013). 2) Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 79-41-2 ATS since 2010). As a franchise, Pittsburgh is on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run overall in pre-bye week games, and has won its last four pre-bye week divisional games SU and ATS.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3.5 points with the Steelers
Los Angeles Chargers (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
For as much as neither the Rams nor the Chargers figure to enjoy much home-field advantage in this battle for LA supremacy, the line doesn’t seem to reflect a 3-4 Super Bowl contender facing a 0-6 flailing squad. I would expect the better host to be around a 9-10 point favorite. So why are we looking at 6.5 points and an extremely interesting betting split showing 67% of the bets on the Rams but 72% of the handle on the Chargers?
Remember, the handle is supposedly the sharper model. It seems some big money players expect the Chargers to play well here. Plus, if you recall, there is a nice system in place indicating where the line is set on bad teams is key: Oddsmakers set a pretty good path for whether or not real bad teams have a chance to compete, as those with -10 PPG differentials are 117-121 SU but 143-91-4 ATS (61.1%) so long as they are not a TD underdog or bigger (+7 or more) in the last 238 games.
I’m not sure anyone believes the Chargers are on the same level as some of the league’s worst teams, such as Tennessee or Miami, so perhaps getting a refresher last week with the bye could help clean the slate. The Chargers have gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six post-bye week road contests. Their QB Justin Herbert is 10-4 SU and 9-4-1 ATS with his team coming off a double-digit loss since 2021.
There is also this little nuggets from Rams’ head coach Sean McVay regarding the turn of the calendar: Sean McVay is just 13-16 SU and 9-18 ATS in its last 28 November games. This may seem like a fluke angle to you, but this is the part of the season where teams are facing fatigue and other issues. Plus, I simply don’t like what we are getting from the Rams consistently lately.
NFL Best Bet: Give the Chargers +6.5 to make a game of it versus their LA housemates
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Denver Broncos
We’re only in Week 8 of the NFL season and we are already getting the second matchup of the season between the favorites in the AFC West Division, Kansas City and Denver. In the season-opening MNF game, if you recall, the Chiefs won big, 31-10 at home. That could have a big impact on this week’s contest, since teams that won by 21 or more points in the opening game between teams are 93-29 SU & 75-47 ATS (61.5%) in the rematch. Head coach Andy Reid’s team comes off a rough outing at Seattle this past Monday, scoring just 3 points.
Regardless, my effective yards per play number describes a matchup here between two completely different-level teams. Right now, KC gains 6.48 yards per play and allows 5.21. At the same time, Denver averages 4.94 yards per play effectively and allows 5.11. Those stats are more befitting of a team that is 3-4 or 2-5. Furthermore, the fact that the Broncos only score 20.6 PPG puts them in a strong play against angle for Sunday, since low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 15-46-1 SU & 16-43-3 ATS (27.1%) since the start of the 2015 season. This is a statement game; I don’t expect the team that’s been winning with smoke & mirrors to come up big.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll go with the Chiefs -1.5 to win in Denver
New England Patriots (-7) at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just earned their first win of the season last week at New York. However, that tight victory sets them up in a tough system for this week versus New England: Home teams coming off a high-scoring close win (>= 27 PF, <=3 point differential) have been a strong fade candidate recently, going 79-66-1 SU but 54-86-6 ATS (38.6%) since 2016. It could be said that Miami is “hot,” since it has won its last three games against the spread while going 1-2 outright. That is typically not a good thing in the NFL, as teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 18-51 SU and 19-46-4 ATS (29.2%) in game #4 since 2003.
Meanwhile. New England is truly the hotter team, at least offensively, as the Pats have scored 31 PPG in their last four and rank third in the league with 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 155-106 SU and 146-111-4 ATS (56.8%) since 2015. New England has looked at Miami’s Hard Rock Stadium as a house of horrors of sorts, but they did win 33-27 last year here against a better Dolphins team after five straight losses prior. That said, favorites are on a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS surge in the Patriots-Dolphins set.
NFL Best Bet: I expect a big offensive effort and cover from the Patriots (-7) in Miami
Philadelphia Eagles (+6) at Washington Commanders
Although the Eagles were beaten 38-21 on MNF by Dallas this past week, I was somewhat impressed by their effort and the fire they played with, particularly in the first three quarters. They let it get away late in the game, but let’s be honest: the Cowboys are a much more capable team than Washington at this point. In this matchup of teams that didn’t win a single game in November, are you prepared to lay 6 points? In games between two teams with 35% or less winning percentages, and totals <= 41, underdogs are 36-31 SU and 45-21-1 ATS (68.2%) since the start of the 2015 season.
How worthy of being a favorite are the Commanders here? According to this system, not very: Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 62-62-1 SU and 48-74-3 ATS (39.3%) since 2016. Before their bye, head coach Dan Quinn’s team got a scratch cover on MNF versus San Francisco. That doesn’t figure to help them here, since teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-47 SU and 34-63 ATS (35.1%) since the start of the 2019 season (including 20-19 SU but 9-30 ATS (23.1%) in divisional play in that same time frame).
Overall, Washington is 21-36 ATS (36.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2017 and on a 1-6 SU and ATS skid in post-bye-week divisional games. This is also another rematch game after Philly’s 24-22 win in Week 1. Well, Washington: 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in its last 14 rematch games at home. With the Eagles on a 7-2 SU and 7-1-1 ATS run in their last nine SNF games, I expect them to come to play under the national spotlight again.
NFL Best Bet: I’ll back Philadelphia +6 at Washington
For more NFL Week 8 best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
