Tuley’s Takes – NFL Conference Championship Weekend:
The college football season is behind us here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (though we’re still celebrating, having Indiana +330 before the start of the CFB Playoff as given out in the VSiN Bowl Betting Guide). Now it’s on to the NFL’s version of the Final Four with the conference championship game this weekend.
We mostly traded money in the divisional playoffs with a loss on the 49ers +7 in their ugly 41-6 loss at the Seahawks and a win on the Bears +3.5 in their 20-17 OT loss vs. the Rams. Our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio started great with the Bills +7.5 and Seahawks -1 both hitting last Saturday, but then the Texans +9 fell short in their 28-16 loss at the Patriots.
Overall in the NFL playoffs, we’re 4-2 (66.7%) overall with our Best Bets posted here in these weekly columns at 3-1 ATS with sides (all underdogs, of course, with our “dog or pass” approach) and 1-1 on Over/Unders.
We’re pretty happy with those results as followers of my betting recaps at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X know that favorites are 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS overall through two rounds, so dog bettors still had to be selective, while Over/Unders have split 5-5.
But enough looking back (except to learn from what we saw). Without further ado, let’s get to the conference championship games, which will both be played on Sunday. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play, or if I recommend passing on the game.
New England (-4.5; 42.5) at Denver
Tuley’s Take: Those of us with Super Bowl futures on the Broncos were thrilled as they closed out their 33-30 win over the Bills last Saturday, as we expected them to be favored in the AFC title game over the winner of the Patriots-Texans game on Sunday. But then Denver coach Sean Payton announced in the post-game press conference that QB Bo Nix had fractured his right ankle and would be out for the rest of the playoffs and replaced by Jarrett Stidham.
However, instead of considering if I should hedge my position, I knew I would be betting more on the Broncos, as longtime “Tuley’s Takes” readers know I’ve had a lot of success with backup QBs when the market overadjusts. I also anecdotally remembered back to several times that Payton (who I’ve followed his whole career as my high school football team played him in 1981 when I was a sophomore) has won with backup QBs.
I’ve since found that he’s 8-1 with backups, and that’s straight up.
And we definitely have a case where the line has been overadjusted as the Broncos were projected to be a short favorite of around -1.5 with Nix, but instead the Patriots opened -4.5 and was bet up to 6 at some books. Even at 4.5, that 6-point move is too much, even though I know Stidham hasn’t taken a meaningful snap in more than two years. He’s been in the system a long time, and I’m confident Payton will have him prepared with a full week of practice.
This game features the No. 3 and 4 defenses in points allowed and, even if Nix was playing, should be a relatively low-scoring game (Over/Under around 42) that comes down to a field goal. I’m calling it at 23-20 either way, so I will pass on the total.
NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Broncos +4.5 or better.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-2.5, 47)
Tuley’s Take: From what I wrote above, I obviously think the AFC championship game should be closer to pick ’em, but the same could be said for this NFC title game, as it’s hard to find two more evenly matched teams.
The Rams have the No. 1 scoring offense in the league at 30.1 points per game, while the Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense at 16.6 ppg. The Seahawks have the No. 2 scoring offense at 29.1 ppg, while the Rams are No. 10 in scoring D at 20.7 ppg, so in addition to home field, that’s why Seattle is a short favorite.
These NFC West division rivals also split their regular-season meetings with the Rams beating the Seahawks 21-19 in Week 11 (but failing to cover as short 3-point home chalk) and the Seahawks getting revenge with a 38-37 OT win in Week 16 (also failing to cover as a short 2-point home fave).
Even though both dogs have covered short numbers, this line is still too short for me to bet the Rams straight, so I’m going to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, as this looks even more like a one-score game, and we can move the line up through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Unfortunately, we don’t have another point spread to tease (the Broncos aren’t an optimum team to tease at +4.5, even though it looks tempting at +10.5, as you’re basically paying for a lot of dead numbers you don’t need), so we’ll turn to the total. I think the Over/Under should be closer to 48 even with the Seahawks’ defense at home, so it’s an easy call to tease the total down to 41. As always, shop around for not only the best lines to tease but also the lowest juice.
NFL Conference Championship Best Bet: Rams +8.5/Over 41 in a 2-team, 6-point teaser.
For more NFL Conference Championship predictions and analysis, visit the NFL Playoff Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
