Tuley’s Takes – NFL Divisional Round Weekend:
We hope everyone enjoyed the Super Wild Card Weekend round as much as we did in the Tuley’s Takes home office. It started off really awesome for underdog bettors like yours truly with the Panthers covering Saturday’s first game as 10-point dogs in their 34-31 home loss vs. the Rams and the Bears pulling a 31-27 minor upset of the Packers as 2-point home dogs. The dogs kept barking in the early games on Sunday with the Bills beating the Jaguars 27-24 after closing as 2-point road dogs and the 49ers upsetting the Eagles 23-19 as 5.5-point road dogs; however, favorites won and covered the last two games on Sunday and Monday night with the Patriots beating the Chargers 16-3 as 3.5-point home faves and the Texans routing the Steelers 30-6 as 3-point road chalk.
Faves and dogs finished the weekend tied 3-3 SU, but dogs led 4-2 ATS. Home field again wasn’t too much of an advantage as road teams actually led 4-2 SU but home/road split 3-3 ATS. Unders led 4-2, though it was interesting that the first two games went Over and the last four stayed Under.
Our Best Bets here went 3-1 on the weekend as we swept our only two ATS plays on the Panthers +10.5 and the 49ers +4.5 while splitting our totals with a loss on the Packers-Bears Under 46 and winning on the Bills-Jaguars Under 52.
The wild-card round wasn’t as kind to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as the recommended plays won with the Bears +7.5 and lost with the Chargers +9.5 and Steelers +9.
But enough looking back (except to learn from what we saw). Without further ado, let’s get to the four divisional matchups this Saturday and Sunday. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play—or if I recommend passing on the game.
SATURDAY
Buffalo at Denver (-1.5, 46)
Tuley’s Take: I was at the Westgate on Sunday when some of the opening lines came out and asked Matt Youmans, Doug Kezirian and Circa Sports Million III champ Tony “Durbify” Gordon what they thought the Bills–Broncos line would be, and we all thought they’d be small favorites. They were surprised when I told them it was pick ’em there at the Westgate and actually Bills -1.5 at William Hill.
With CFB Playoff bye teams faring so bad the last two years, a lot of discussion has surfaced about “rest vs. rust,” so I kinda get why early money showed on the Bills. However, the line has since flipped (probably due to bettors seeing initial value with getting points – or point – with the No. 1 seed at home.
With the Bills now the underdog in the “teaser zone” where we can move the line 6 points through the key numbers of 3 and 7, it makes sense to start the “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” here. For one, I have to respect the oddsmakers favoring the Bills in the first place, and now we’re getting points with what we believe is the better team.
In addition, a lot of people are talking about the Broncos being in a revenge spot as they lost to the Bills in the wild-card round last year, but regular readers know I don’t put too much stock in revenge, especially since the Bills won that game 31-7. The Broncos haven’t improved THAT much.
The logical teams to play it with would be the Seahawks -1.5 vs. the 49ers and the Texans +9 at the Patriots. As always, don’t only shop around for the best lines to tease but also the lowest juice (note: +7 is OK only if your book doesn’t count ties in teasers as losses).
NFL Divisional Best Bet: Bills +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers.
San Francisco at Seattle (-7.5, 45)
Tuley’s Take: As stated above, I’m using the Seahawks -1.5 in teasers. However, I still have to look at this game as its own entity and definitely like the 49ers after they opened as 7-point road dogs at the Seahawks, and it’s been bet up to 7.5.
So, put me down as shooting for a middle with the Seahawks, hopefully winning between 2 and 7 points.
Why do I like the 49ers +7.5 (besides the hook)? Well, I’ll repeat what I wrote last week in picking them against the Eagles: “San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan did a great job overcoming countless injuries to get the 49ers to a 12-5 record and a shot at the No. 1 seed before losing 13-3 vs. the Seahawks last Saturday night. Oddsmakers and the public have been underestimating them all year. I remember backing them as an 8-point road down at the Rams in the Week 5 Thursday nighter when the whole world was against them, and they pulled the 26-23 outright upset in OT.
I called for a one-score game just needing the 49ers to lose by a FG to cover, but it worked out even better with them pulling the 23-19 outright upset.
We all know the Seattle defense was dominant in that 13-3 meeting in Week 18, but I’m counting on Shanahan to make the necessary adjustments to generate more scoring in another heated battle. The 49ers won 17-13 in Week 1, so we’ll call for a third low-scoring game and lean to the Under 45.
NFL Divisional Best Bet: 49ers +7.5, plus using Seahawks -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers.
SUNDAY
Houston at New England (-3, 41)
Tuley’s Take: If you read VSIN’s NFL Betting Guide last summer, you might recall I gave out the Texans as my longshot Super Bowl future at 40-1 (I also recommended the Lions – oops). Anyway, I was counting on them winning the AFC South and at least getting a home playoff game, but here they are, regardless, after getting in as a wild card and going on the road to Pittsburgh with a 10-game winning streak and three wins from pulling it off.
We all know the defense is carrying this team and now gets a huge test in New England against a defense that looked great in shutting down the Chargers 16-3 in their wild-card game.
The Over/Under opened at 41 and has budged at very few books. I would lean to the Under, but think with the projected low-scoring game that the points become more valuable and make Texans +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers the better play.
NFL Divisional Best Bet: Texans +9 in 2-point, 6-point teasers.
Los Angeles (-3.5, 48.5) at Chicago
Tuley’s Take: It’s not surprising that the Rams are favored despite being the lower-seeded road team. A lot of people have called them the best team in the NFC, if not the NFL, at multiple points this season, while the Bears continue to be the 2025-26 version of the Kardiac Kids.
The knock on the Bears – besides everyone (myself included) knocking them for taking advantage of a weak schedule like the Patriots – is that while the other seven remaining playoff teams are all in the Top 12 in scoring defense in points allowed per game, the Bears are #23 at 24.6 ppg as they keep having to rally. The upside is they’re #1 with 33 takeaways.
Also working in the Bears’ favor should be the weather forecast with the California boys visiting, and I’m sure you’ve all seen the stats circulating with the Rams being in their last 10 games in Chicago (I’m seeing the 1985 NFC Championship Game in my mind with Wilber Marshall’s scoop-and-score in the snow to ice) and Matthew Stafford’s last 10 rain/snow games with a 1-9 record and 11 INTs.
I was able to grab +4 last Sunday (after missing +4.5 at a couple of books), but think the Bears are the play at anything more than a FG.
NFL Divisional Best Bet: Bears +3.5 or better.
For more NFL Divisional Round predictions and analysis, visit the NFL Playoff Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
