Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 9:
NFL Week 8 certainly did not go as well as planned in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We went 1-5 ATS with our Best Bets to put a dent in what had been a great NFL season so far, as our lone winner was on the Titans +10.5 (and we actually bet it at +13.5) in their 43-36 OT loss at the Bengals, with losses on the Panthers +3.5 on Thursday Night Football, Vikings +3.5 (by half a point), Colts +10 (by a ton), Browns +3,5 and Eagles +6. That dropped our record here to 23-20-3 ATS (53.5%) after we were at 59.5% entering the week.
As for our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, we had another winning week as our recommended plays (all advantage teasers including the key numbers of 3 and 7, aka “Wong Teasers” for the old-timers) went 3-1 with the Raiders +9.5, Patriots -1 and Bears +9 all covering and the only loss on the Falcons +8.5. I would love to continue those, but there’s no clear-cut teaser options this week except Seahawks -2.5 (and I like the dog … see below).
Anyway, enough looking back (except to learn from our mistakes), let’s get to my “takes” on the full NFL Week 9 schedule, which has 15 games, with just the Steelers and Titans having their bye week.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Jacksonville (-10) at Baltimore
This Thursday nighter has lost a lot of its appeal with the Ravens in last place at 4-4 in the AFC South and losing Lamar Jackson after one play this past Sunday. The Jaguars are 5-2 and look like they can challenge the Bills for the No. 1 seed (especially playing in the worst AFC division). The advance line was Ravens -2.5 last week with Jackson expected back, but it reopened to Jaguars -9.5 Sunday afternoon after Jackson’s injury and the Ravens looked lost in a 36-10 loss to the Bills, while the Jaguars routed the Colts 42-7. The line has gone to double digits, and I have to take the overadjusted line, as Baltimore’s undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano should be more prepared with a week of reps with the first team (albeit a short week). Rumors surfaced early Wednesday that the Ravens are trading for Cardinals QB Jacoby Brissett, but that deal isn’t expected to be completed before this game. The Jaguars easily covered as 10-point chalk vs. the Colts, but that was at home. Besides, don’t forget they barely beat an ailing Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in London and lost to the Texans, so this spread is a big ask for the Jags to cover. I’ll jump back on primetime underdogs (they had covered 12 straight in Weeks 3-6 before primetime chalk covered five straight in Weeks 7-8 until the Bears’ upset on MNF).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Ravens 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Jaguars still 75/25 in SU pools).
Cincinnati (-3) vs. Atlanta
Sunday starts with another early international game, this time in Madrid, Spain, with the Bengals facing the Falcons. The Bengals are 5-2 and chasing the Steelers (6-2) in the AFC North after barely beating the Titans 43-36 (and barely avoided being the Survivor “team of death” once again), while the Falcons are 3-5 and still in the NFC South race as the whole division is below .500 and the Panthers lead at 3-4. The advance line was Bengals -2.5 and climbed to -3 after their narrow win because the Falcons were shut out 16-0 by the Buccaneers in a rainstorm. If the Falcons can bounce back and play as they did in their 29-20 upset of the previously undefeated 49ers in Week 8, they can keep up with the Bengals, but this line is too short for me.
Best Bet: Pass.
Cleveland at New Orleans (-3 -115)
The advance line was Saints -2.5 and only moved to -2.5 -120 after the Browns were routed 27-6 by the Steelers on Sunday (the Saints were on their bye). It actually dipped to 1.5 by Tuesday, but then it was announced Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson had concussion symptoms leftover from a hit on Sunday (even though he returned to that game), and the line was raised to -3 with Shedeur Sanders expected to get the start. The last time we saw the Saints (2-5), they were losing 16-10 to the Steelers in Paris, so I’m not sure they should be favored by a field goal (or even favored at all) as it’s not much of a downgrade from Watson to Sanders. Put me down on the Browns, though I’ll be waiting to hopefully get the hook at +3.5.
Best Bet: Browns +3 or better (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Saints still 65/35 in SU pools).
Detroit (-7) at Miami
This line has been a solid Lions -7 on the advance line and still is now. The Lions have clawed their way back into the NFC North race with three straight wins, including narrow wins over the Packers and Vikings. But they haven’t been blowing teams out and now have to travel south to Miami to take on a better-than-expected Dolphins team. I know they’re 1-6 and still in the race for the No. 1 pick; however, in addition to beating the Jets for their first win two weeks ago on the road, their last two home games were 7-point home dogs just like this and they pushed vs. the Bengals in a 31-24 loss in Week 5 and covered vs. the Patriots in a 24-19 loss in Week 8. The Lions aren’t playing better than either of those teams, so I’ll take the TD head start here.
Best Bet: Dolphins +7 (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, lower if offered +6.5 and higher if offered +7.5, but Lions still 70/30 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Washington
The Commanders (2-4-1) are a team I haven’t quite figured out. I lost when trying to fade them with the Eagles on Sunday night, but even though they’re tempting as home dogs here, I don’t think I can trust them to show up again, especially with the Rams back to .500 at 4-4 and looking more like the team everyone expected them to be when they were preseason Super Bowl favorites. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 75/25 in SU pools).
Dallas (-5) at Indianapolis
The Cowboys are another Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team after getting upset as 7.5-point favorites in a 33-30 OT loss to the Cardinals. But the Colts are looking even worse after their 42-7 loss at the Jaguars and continued trade rumors. I tried to give their remaining players credit in backing them on Sunday, but can’t pull the trigger again here even against the Cowboys.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants (-3 -120) at Philadelphia
The Eagles are another team, just like the Colts, that I have been backing more often than I should with all their injuries and other issues. I certainly can’t back them here, getting just a field goal (and wouldn’t be tempted even at +3.5).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Kansas City (-10)
The Chiefs dropped out of first place in the AFC West with their 28-24 loss at the Broncos on Sunday. I usually don’t like fading Andy Reid and the Chiefs off a loss, but that didn’t help them last week even though they were coming off a 20-3 loss at the Seahawks in the Week 7 Sunday nighter. I did lose fading the Chiefs three weeks ago as they covered -7.5 in a 22-6 win over the Chargers, but that was off their bye week (I shoulda known better than that with Reid’s career record with two weeks to prepare) and against the Chargers. The Jets are 2-6, but have been more competitive than that and playing mostly close games, with just one loss by more than one score (23-12 by the Bears in Week 4), so I’ll take the double digits.
Best Bet: Jets +10 (Pool Play Percentages: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still at least 80-20 in SU pools).
Denver (-3 -115) at Carolina
As stated above, the Broncos took over first place in the AFC West at 6-2 with their win over the Chiefs on Sunday. The Panthers are also in first place in the AFC South, but just 3-4. These first-place teams are not the same. In fact, I feel this line is way too short to take the dog here (though I will say that betting short road favorites is often a trap game and one of many instances that led to my “dog or pass” mantra). Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 67/33 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at San Francisco (-10)
On Sunday afternoon, the Raiders return to the Bay Area (well, not really, since the game is in Santa Clara, about 44 miles from their former home in Oakland). The 49ers are coming off their bye week, but they’re still in an “anti-swagger spot” in my book after having their six-game winning streak to start the season snapped by the Falcons, 29-20, in Week 7. I would probably be on the Raiders, who have played well against top teams (though mostly at home against the Chiefs and Bills) anyway if getting more than a TD, but especially with it steamed up to 10.
Best Bet: Raiders +10 (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, but 49ers still at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Houston (-4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
I’m gonna sound like a broken record (hmm, I wonder how many of my readers have ever listened to music on a 33 1/3 or 45 rpm vinyl record), but I feel the same way about the Chargers that I do about the Eagles and Colts. My record would be so much better if I had stopped trying to make cases for these teams this season. I’m sure there will be spots I’m back on all of them (especially as lines continue to get inflated), but Texans -4.5 is not one of those cases as too short to take a winless team even at home.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 70/30 in SU pools).
Green Bay at New England (-3 -115)
Both teams are 5-3 and back into the playoff hunt where they expected to be before the season, though the path is probably tougher for the Packers as they’re in last place in the strong NFC North but would still be “in the playoffs if they started today.” This game should probably be closer to pick ’em, as I see it as a straight-up coin flip. However, I don’t always like these 3-point dogs, as you might be risking your money just to get the upside as a push and break even. I’m not sure I’ll be willing to lay the -120 we’ll likely see if the line does get to 3.5, but I would love the Packers +3.5 in contests.
Best Bet: Pass for now, probably Packers at +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Patriots still 67/33 in SU pools).
Arizona at Seattle (-8.5)
This line has been all over the place. The advance line last week was Seahawks -11 before the Cardinals upset the Cowboys 33-30 in OT on Sunday afternoon; the line still reopened Seahawks -11.5 that night. Then, the Seahawks were blown out 34-17 by the Bears on MNF, but the line went as high as -13 before it was announced Wednesday that Seattle QB Sam Darnold would be out with a quad injury. Unfortunately, I was waiting to see how high the line would go so I could take the pesky Cardinals (who looked even better with Gardner Minshew on Sunday than they had as dangerous dogs all season with previous upsets of the Chargers and Rams), but the line is now down to 8.5 with Drew Lock starting. But, hey, I don’t think the line has been adjusted low enough, as I’d still take the Cards as low as +7 in this divisional rivalry.
Best Bet: Cardinals +8.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 67/33 in ATS contests, but Seahawks still 75/25 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay at Chicago (-6)
I’ve had a couple of underdogs this week where I just haven’t quite been able to pull the trigger, and here’s another one. I’m a lifelong Bears fan and excited about this team (and have them +350 to win the NFC North along with Over 9.5 Wins at plus-money from my picks in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide back in July) and loved the 34-17 rout of the Seahawks on Monday, but if I were a chalk bettor, I still wouldn’t feel comfortable laying this many points. The Buccaneers have won three straight after starting 0-5 and are right in the thick of the NFC South race after their 16-0 shutout of the Falcons on Sunday in a downpour, and Baker Mayfield didn’t even complete a pass. They look like a live dog, but I also think the line should be higher. So I have to invoke the “pass” part of “dog or pass” again, as we have plenty of dogs we already like this week.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bears still 70/30 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-3.5) at Minnesota
The Monday nighter gives us a pretty good matchup of the current No. 1 seeds in each conference with the formerly unbeaten Vikings, who lost their first game of the season 19-15 at the Lions on Sunday, hosting the Bills, who are coming off their bye. I’m sure a lot of longtime readers are assuming I’ll be on the primetime home underdog here, but the Vikings are in an “anti-swagger spot” after having their six-game winning streak snapped. And even though the Vikings’ defense has been darn impressive, Josh Allen and the Bills can score on anyone, and this line is too short in my opinion.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
For more Week 9 NFL best bets, visit the Week 9 NFL Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
