Don’t bet Unders in this weekend’s NFL Preseason Week 3 just because they went 14-2 last weekend and are 26-6 (81.3%) overall in this year’s exhibition games.

That first paragraph is in honor of my favorite journalism teacher at Northern Illinois University, Mary Ann Whitcomb, who taught us: “Don’t bury the lede.” Her lessons have been on my mind as I was in the Chicago suburbs earlier this month for my 40-year high school reunion (yikes!) and visited her tombstone as she is interred at the same cemetery as my parents.

 

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So, if you take nothing else away from this column, don’t be like all those other bettors who have been hearing about how Unders have been gold this preseason and follow like lemmings off a cliff in jumping on the Under bandwagon. The problem is that the oddsmakers obviously know the trend and have already set the totals very low, as they average just 34.5 points for this final weekend of the preseason.

I’ve long written (and said) that whenever the masses hear about a trend like this, it’s usually when it reverses. Having said that (a Curb Your Enthusiasm/Seinfeld reference for those who know), don’t blindly bet Overs this weekend either, as some bettors made that mistake last weekend, thinking that the totals were adjusted too low and got burned.

As always here in the “Tuley’s Takes” home office, we advise looking at each game as its own entity and weighing whether it’s worth a wager before deciding on an NFL best bet.

The same goes with ATS bets as underdogs are leading 17-14 straight-up with one pick ’em (49ers-Saints this past Sunday) over the past two weekends after the Hall of Fame Game between the Bears and Texans was graded no-action and an even more impressive 20-11 ATS (64.5%). I wish I had been betting more dogs this preseason with my “dog-or-pass” philosophy, but it’s not the time to go overboard on that bandwagon either (or jump all over the chalk blindly).

So, let’s look for my NFL best bets as the preseason winds down as we get our last looks at these teams (even if mostly backups) before the regular season kicks off two weeks from Thursday.

Miami Dolphins +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET

File this pick under the “no one knows what they’re talking about” category and take the points. Oddsmakers and the vast majority of bettors have been way off so far this preseason with the aforementioned SU and ATS records by the dogs. This line opened Miami between a 1.5- to 2.5-point fave at most books (and as high as -5 at Station Casinos here in Vegas), but now it’s flipped to Buccaneers -3 as of Wednesday morning. I hear people saying all the motivation is on the Tampa Bay side, but I can’t help but think the Dolphins’ backups are also motivated to get more playing time in the high-powered offense. And I don’t put any stock in home-field advantage as I’ve written many times in recent years here at VSiN that we’ve seen HFA become negligible in all team sports since the pandemic, and especially don’t put any stock in it for these exhibition games in front of lackluster crowds. For those curious, home teams lead just 17-15 SU in the preseason (after the neutral-site Hall of Fame Game was no-action) and right at .500 at 16-16 ATS.

Baltimore Ravens +3 at Green Bay Packers

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

Everyone knows John Harbaugh has built a culture of trying to win in the preseason, even though they lost their home opener 16-13 to the Eagles. They won their second game last Saturday, 13-12 vs. the Falcons, though they failed to cover as 2.5-point home favorites. But they still play to win the game. This line opened Ravens -1 but has flipped to Packers -3, so we’re getting a full field goal. And we saw the Packers not play their starters at all in their 27-2 loss at the Broncos on Sunday.

Detroit Lions +3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

This is basically just another line-move play as the Steelers opened as 3-point road favorites and have been adjusted up to -6.5. The Lions do give effort for coach Dan Campbell no matter who’s on the field, and I’m not sure if the Steelers should be laying more than a football game even in a scrimmage whether with their starters or backups.

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