Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 1:
A lot of VSiN readers/subscribers wait around for Matt Youmans’ fast-food rankings every year around this time since the pandemic (the end of an era comes with the finale on Thursday’s “Follow the Money”).
However, even though I love the list and have added my input over the years, my summer rite of passage from Youmans is his annual listing of NFL quarterback rotations, which means it’s time to start handicapping preseason football games.
Every August, one of the biggest topics of discussion on VSiN and elsewhere (and I’d be surprised if you haven’t heard this already this past week) is whether you can have an edge in betting these otherwise meaningless exhibition games/glorified scrimmages or if they’re only for degenerates.
I’ve been betting preseason games for years (some years with more success than others). If you do, you really have to listen to what the coaches say about whether they’re playing their starters and for how long (it’s one of the rare times coaches actually tell the truth in press conferences), and know the QB rotations, as the backups will see the majority of the snaps. You also have to pay attention to what head coaches actually play to win these games (John Harbaugh being the G.O.A.T., Pete Carroll, Sean McDermott are a combined 94-54-3 ATS, 64.5%, from a rather large sample) and which ones don’t care about their preseason win-loss records (Dan Quinn, Nick Sirianni, Zac Taylor are a combined 17-31-1 ATS, 35.4%).
I usually skip the Hall of Fame Game (and I’m glad I did, as I only considered the Under and would have lost in the Chargers’ 34-7 rout of the Lions). I like to jump in with NFL Preseason Week 1, which kicks off Thursday night with three games. If I start winning right away, I of course keep betting throughout the preseason (though usually skipping the final weekend as most teams play almost all backups, unless I really love something). Last year, underdogs went 20-11 ATS (64.5%) in Preseason Weeks 1 and 2, so I did well and wish I had been betting more, especially as Unders also dominated 26-6 (81.3%). If I’m cold right out of the gate, I’ll usually pack it in and get ready for the regular season.
Let’s see how it goes with my “takes” on some games this weekend.
Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5, 37.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 10 p.m. ET/7 p.m. PT
This line opened Seahawks -1.5 at some books before Carroll announced he intended to play his starters vs. his former team, and it’s flipped to the Raiders being favored. Most books that opened later went with Raiders -1 (Westgate) or -2 (Circa), but the line has kept steaming up over a field goal. Now, I would usually fade such a big move, but as I mentioned above, Carroll has a history of trying to win these games (38-28 SU and 40-25-1 ATS), so I’ll pass (and you know I don’t lay points as “Mr. Dog or Pass”). Instead, I really like the Under and not just because I like Unders, especially in preseason games. Both teams are putting in new offenses with new QBs, so I’m anticipating neither side to be clicking (I’m trying to be kind). I’m actually surprised this Over/Under is set so high at 37.5 (relatively high for preseason, as we often see totals in the low 30s), though I’m guessing that’s due to bettors hearing the chatter about starters playing more. Let’s kick off this preseason with an Under.
NFL Preseason Best Bet: Under 37.5
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers (-6.5)
Friday, 7 p.m. ET/4 p.m. PT
When the Browns signed journeyman backup QB Tyler Huntley on Tuesday, the first thing I said to my nephew was, “Don’t they already have an overcrowded quarterback room?” Granted, Deshaun Watson is out for the season, but they already have presumed starter Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett, plus rookies Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders in camp. But I guess all but Flacco are dealing with minor injuries, so Huntley isn’t a bad option to throw in a preseason game. It still looks like Sanders will get the start. It’s always a soap opera in Cleveland, but I don’t mind taking a team with an unsettled QB situation, as you know everyone is playing for their jobs. Basically, this is just as much a bet against the Panthers, who were also 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in coach Dave Canales’ first season, and shouldn’t be laying this many points in any game against anyone.
NFL Preseason Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +6.5
New York Giants (-1.5) at Buffalo Bills
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT
McDermott definitely puts more effort into preseason than Marv Levy did back in the day, when he would routinely go 0-4 in the preseason and then take the Bills deep into the playoffs. McDermott is 15-9 SU and ATS (62.5%) and also 6-1 ATS as a home underdog. I know the Giants have more incentive to try and return to a winning culture, but I still think the wrong team is favored, especially with coach Brian Daboll just 3-7 ATS in preseason games. Besides, it’s not as if the Giants have taken preseason openers seriously, going 2-7 ATS over the last 10 years (no games in 2020 due to the pandemic). I doubt we see too much, if anything, from Russell Wilson in this game, and hopefully not Jameis Winston (which would concern me for this bet), and more of rookie Jaxson Dart and probable odd-man-out Tommy DeVito.
NFL Preseason Best Bet: Buffalo Bills +1.5
New Orleans Saints (-1) at Los Angeles Chargers
Monday, 4:05 p.m. ET/1:05 p.m. PT
I already talked about Baltimore’s John Harbaugh being a bet-on-preseason coach, but his brother Jim isn’t a slouch either at 12-8 ATS after the Chargers’ 34-7 rout of the Lions in the Hall of Fame Game. I also like teams coming out of the HOF tilt with a game under their belt. It sure seemed like this Harbaugh was also playing to win, and the players were on board from start to finish. And I’ll take any combo of Justin Herbert, Taylor Heincke, Trey Lance and DJ Ulagalelei.
NFL Preseason Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers +1
