Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 1:
The NFL kicked off its preseason schedule with the Hall of Fame Game last Thursday, but football season doesn’t really start in the Tuley’s Takes home office until my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans posts his QB rotations. He did that on Sunday here (and updated his chart on Monday, which I’ll put at the bottom of this column for easy reference).
The annual debate has already started on Twitter/X and the VSiN airwaves about whether betting NFL preseason games is beatable or if it’s unpredictable and for degenerates. I’ve long been in the camp that it’s beatable and will parrot my colleagues (or have they been parroting me on my soap box for years at the Daily Racing Form, ESPN Chalk and here?) that this is the only time that football coaches openly and honestly discuss their gameplans, especially how much they plan to play their starters and how much each QB is expected to play. These press conferences often move the lines several points, and we’ve already seen that for these Preseason Week 1 games. As you’ll see below, there are some cases where I’m planning to bet on that news, and other times I’m going to fade it with my “dog or pass” approach when I feel the market has overadjusted.
The other profitable approach in the NFL preseason is betting on or against coaches who have shown a tendency to take these games seriously and try to win or fade coaches who clearly don’t care if they lose these mostly meaningless games.
I passed on the Hall of Fame Game, and that’s a good thing as I probably woulda landed on the Cardinals +1. They lost a back-and-forth, coin flip of a game 33-30. I have long loved to bet Unders in preseason games, but I’m glad I passed on the total as well. As my boss, Bill Adee, wrote in the VSiN newsletter, Overs dominated 31-18 (63.3%) last August, so I’m not looking to play as many preseason Unders as I used to,
We have six games this Thursday with three more on Friday and seven on Saturday. I don’t bet as much as when the games are real (and will be invoking the “pass” part of ”dog or pass”’ more often than now, but I’ll give a small “take” on each game as I’m preparing for the regular season, too.
Green Bay at Pittsburgh -1.5
Aaron Rodgers vs. his former team? Nope, not in the first preseason game for both teams. Hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass
Detroit at Cincinnati -6.5
Likewise, the Lions are not playing QB Jared Goff on Thursday while Joe Burrow is expected to start for Cincy and play a series or two. That has caused this line to leap from Bengals -3.5 to -6.5. Teddy Bridgewater retired or I would have already faded this move. The signing of Joshua Dobbs is tempting as he has a history of being able to be plug-and-play. Still debating but will probably take Lions, especially if I can get +7.
Best Bet: Lean Lions +6.5
Indianapolis -2,5 at New England
Riley Leonard and Anthony Richardson are in a battle for Indy’s No. 2 QB spot, so this line has gone from Patriots -1.5 to Colts -2.5, Wish I had grabbed Indy as dogs, so will pass.
Best Bet: Pass
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston -1
Texans are a 1-point home favorite between these two playoff hopefuls, but don’t see any edge in a coin-flip battle.
Best Bet: Pass
Arizona Cardinals at Las Vegas -1.5
Kirk Cousins will start the Raiders’ preseason opener with No. 1 draft pick Fernando Mendoza also expected to get some reps with the starting offensive line, so that’s basically why the Raiders are favored. However, I’ll be on the Cardinals as I like the fact they have a game under their belt. Besides, Carson Beck looked good in the Hall of Fame Game as the Cards also have Garner Minshew behind Jacoby Brissett.
Best Bet: Cardinals +1.5
Tennessee -5 at San Francisco
Tuley’s Take: The 49ers aren’t playing their starters and have had a reported 20 players miss practices, so this line has gone from Titans -2.5 to -5. I would normally fade such a move, but maybe there’s something to that electrical substation near the practice facility in Santa Clara.
Best Bet: Pass
Miami -3 at Washington
This line has flipped from Commanders -1 to Dolphins -3, which is a little strange as everyone I hear is calling the Dolphins the worst team in the league. But the Commanders have been mum on their QB plans for the opener..
Best Bet: Pass
Tampa Bay at New York Jets -6
Here’s another I wish I had grabbed early, as I like the Jets this preseason (just the preseason). Geno Smith is starting, and fourth-round pick Cade Klubnik is expected to see action. I also have no problem with Bailey Zappe and Brady Cook in the preseason, but I guess others see that as well, as this has gone from Bucs -1.5 to Jets -6.
Best Bet: Pass
Denver -5 at Atlanta
The Falcons have a QB battle between incumbent Michael Penix Jr. and newcomer Tua Tagovailoa, but coach Kevin Stefanski has already declared Penix is out of the preseason opener until he’s cleared by team doctors (and Tua is dealing with injuries as well). That news has led to this line going from Broncos -3.5 to -5. If we knew Cooper Rush would play most of the game for Atlanta, I’d take the points but haven’t met a bet as of Tuesday.
Best Bet: Lean Falcons +5
Carolina at Buffalo -1
This line opened Bills -2.5 and flipped to Panthers -1.5 but is now back to Bills -1. Just like the Cardinals above, I like the Panthers with the Hall of Fame Game under their belt. And Haynes King could be the Cinderella Story of the preseason after his last-second TD run for the 33-30 win.
Best Bet: Panthers +1
Minnesota -1,5 at New York Giants
We have a QB battle in Minny with newcomer Kyler Murray vs. incumbent J.J. McCarthy, so this line originally went from Vikings -2.5 to -3, but has dipped to -1.5. I’m on board with fading the original move with John Harbaugh taking over as the Giants’ new coach. Harbaugh had a historic run of 24 straight preseason wins between 2016 and 2023, and I expect him to try to bring that winning culture to his new job.
Best Bet: Giants +1.5
Cleveland -1 at Chicago
Deshaun Watson and Shedeur Sanders are in a QB battle in Cleveland with both expected to get a start in the first two preseason games. No starter named for this game yet, but the line has gone from Bears -1 to Browns -1 with the Bears not having as much motivation.
Best Bet: Pass
Jacksonville at New Orleans -3.5
The Jaguars aren’t starting Trevor Lawrence and most starters, so this line has gone from Jaguars -1.5 to Saints -3.5. It’s tempting to take preseason dogs of more than a field goal, but I’ll probably pass.
Best Bet: Lean to Jaguars +3.5
Los Angeles Rams at Kansas City -2.5
Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes aren’t expected to play. The Chiefs have Justin Fields at backup, so this line has gone from Chiefs -1.5 to -2.5. But that’s not enough for me to fade.
Best Bet: Pass
Philadelphia -3 at Baltimore
Eagles coach Nick Sirianni hasn’t said if Jalen Hurts will play. Lamar Jackson is definitely out for the Ravens, so this line has drifted up from Eagles -2 to -3. However, I’ll fade that move with backups Tyler Huntley and Skylar Thompson, plus even though coach Harbaugh is gone, there are still plenty of Baltimore players around who are used to trying to win preseason games.
Best Bet: Ravens +3
Dallas at Seattle -3.5
Dak Prescott and Sam Darnold aren’t expected to play, but this line has climbed from Seahawks -2,5 to -3.5. It appears to be driven by support for the defending Super Bowl champions, but I’m willing to fade that move as I’d argue that’s even less of a reason to bet on them. The Cowboys do have a backup QB battle between Joe Milton and Sam Howell, so I’ll back them in what should be closer to a pick ’em.
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5
NFL PRESEASON QUARTERBACK DEPTH CHARTS 2026 (from Matt Youmans)
ARIZONA: Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew, Carson Beck, Kedon Slovis
ATLANTA: Tua Tagovailoa, Michael Penix Jr., Cooper Rush, Jack Strand
BALTIMORE: Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson, Joe Fagnano
BUFFALO: Josh Allen, Kyle Allen, Shane Buechele
CAROLINA: Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Kyle Trask, Haynes King
CHICAGO: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum, Miller Moss
CINCINNATI: Joe Burrow, Joe Flacco, Josh Johnson, Sean Clifford
CLEVELAND: Deshaun Watson, Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, Taylen Green
DALLAS: Dak Prescott, Joe Milton, Sam Howell
DENVER: Bo Nix, Jarrett Stidham, Sam Ehlinger
DETROIT: Jared Goff, Luke Altmyer, Joshua Dobbs
GREEN BAY: Jordan Love, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle McCord, Kyron Drones
HOUSTON: C.J. Stroud, Davis Mills, Graham Mertz
INDIANAPOLIS: Daniel Jones, Riley Leonard, Anthony Richardson, Easton Stick
JACKSONVILLE: Trevor Lawrence, Nick Mullens, Carter Bradley, Joey Aguilar
KANSAS CITY: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Fields, Garrett Nussmeier, Chris Oladokun
LAS VEGAS: Kirk Cousins, Fernando Mendoza, Aidan O’Connell, Jacob Clark
L.A. CHARGERS: Justin Herbert, Trey Lance, DJ Uiagalelei
L.A. RAMS: Matthew Stafford, Stetson Bennett, Ty Simpson, Matthew Caldwell
MIAMI: Malik Willis, Quinn Ewers, Cam Miller
MINNESOTA: Kyler Murray, J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, Max Brosmer
NEW ENGLAND: Drake Maye, Tommy DeVito, Behren Morton
NEW ORLEANS: Tyler Shough, Spencer Rattler, Zach Wilson, Hunter Dekkers
N.Y. GIANTS: Jaxson Dart, Jameis Winston, Brandon Allen
N.Y. JETS: Geno Smith, Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook, Bailey Zappe
PHILADELPHIA: Jalen Hurts, Andy Dalton, Tanner McKee, Cole Payton
PITTSBURGH: Aaron Rodgers, Mason Rudolph, Will Howard, Drew Allar
SAN FRANCISCO: Brock Purdy, Mac Jones, Kurtis Rourke, Adrian Martinez
SEATTLE: Sam Darnold, Drew Lock, Jalen Milroe
TAMPA BAY: Baker Mayfield, Jake Browning, Connor Bazelak, Jalon Daniels
TENNESSEE: Cam Ward, Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis, Hendon Hooker
WASHINGTON: Jayden Daniels, Marcus Mariota, Sam Hartman, Athan Kaliakmanis
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