MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, August 15.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
1:10 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Both starting pitchers appear overdue for regression. Anthony Kay has given the White Sox nine straight starts of three earned runs or fewer, with two earned runs or fewer allowed in seven of them. For the season, he owns a 3.96 ERA and 4.80 fielding independent. Tigers starting pitcher Troy Melton has a 1.46 ERA despite getting seven strikeouts and 2.7 walks per nine innings. His 3.63 fielding independent screams that regression is coming. He faces a White Sox lineup that is eighth in scoring with 4.7 runs per game. The Tigers entered the series averaging 5.9 runs per game in their first 25 games since the All-Star Break.
Pick: White Sox vs. Tigers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
2:20 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Cardinals starting pitcher Michael McGreevy has pitched to a lot of contact despite a solid 3.64 ERA with 6.1 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings. Cubs starting pitcher Matthew Boyd has also pitched to a lot of contact with a 3.50 ERA and 3.95 fielding independent with 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed up by a lineup that is second in scoring with nearly 5.2 runs per game. The Cardinals are fourth in road offense with 5.1 runs per game. Both offenses should benefit from the wind blowing out.
Pick: Cardinals vs. Cubs Over 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 10.7
4:05 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Rockies starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen has had a rocky season, posting a 6.83 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.7 walks per nine innings. He is supported by a bullpen that is last in the National League in ERA at 4.92. Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb has a 3.59 ERA and a career-low seven strikeouts per nine innings this season. He has a 2.75 ERA with just under 0.6 home runs per nine innings allowed in his past 13 starts. For his career, he has a 3.91 lifetime road ERA compared to a 2.93 home ERA with less than 0.5 home runs per nine innings.
Picks: Giants Run Line -1.5 +125 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Giants -1.5 -114 and Total 8.4
6:40 PM Eastern
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Reds starting pitcher Brady Singer overall this season has a 4.66 ERA with 1.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings. He has been in better form recently with three earned runs or fewer allowed in 11 of his past 13 starts. Marlins starting pitcher Ryan Gusto has a 4.78 ERA. Though his 3.90 fielding independent with 1.1 home runs per nine innings point towards positivity, he is supported by a Marlins lineup that entered the series last in the National League in post-All-Star Break scoring with just under four runs per game.
Picks: Reds Moneyline -110 and Under 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -132 and Total 8.9
7:15 PM Eastern
Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones is going through a rough patch with a combined 14 runs in 13 innings allowed across his past three starts. This season, he has a 5.03 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed. The Pirates offense leads the league in scoring at home with 5.4 runs per game. They face Red Sox starting pitcher Sonny Gray, who has a 2.79 ERA, but a higher 3.58 fielding independent with 7.9 strikeouts per nine innings, his fewest since the 2016 season.
Picks: Red Sox Moneyline -115 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -123 and Total 8.6
7:15 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski has a low 3.44 ERA with only two walks per nine innings allowed. The amount of contact he is pitching to is concerning, getting only seven strikeouts per nine innings with 1.3 home runs per nine innings for a fielding independent of 4.13. Brewers starting pitcher Jacob Misiorowski has been exceptional with a 1.76 ERA and 13.8 strikeouts to just two walks per nine innings. He has allowed six total home runs across his past five starts. Misiorowski faces a Dodgers lineup that is fourth in the league in scoring with five runs per game. The Brewers are fifth with 4.9 runs per game.
Pick: Brewers vs. Dodgers Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
9:40 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Rangers starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore has pitched better than his 4.43 ERA would suggest this season. He has a 3.74 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts per nine innings, but that ERA balloons to 5.48 away from home. Athletics starting pitcher JT Ginn has a 3.41 ERA, but his 3.9 walks per nine innings and 4.22 fielding independent are concerns. He is supported by a bullpen that is last in ERA at 5.80 and shoots up to 7.07 since June 1.
Picks: Rangers Moneyline -130 and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Rangers -136 and Total 9.7
