Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 2:
NFL Preseason Week 1 is in the books, and we’re excited here in the Tuley’s Takes home office for Preseason Week 2.
We went 2-1 ATS with our “dog or pass” plays last weekend with wins on the Browns and Chargers and a loss on the Bills, though it would have been a shame if I had a losing mark, as underdogs have dominated at 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) so far, including the Hall of Fame Game. The Lions-Falcons game last Friday isn’t included as it was graded no-action due to the 55-minute rule (old–school “Vegas rules” require football games to get to 5:00 left in the fourth quarter). It was suspended with 6:19 remaining after Detroit’s Morice Norris Jr. was carted off the field, and Atlanta snapped the ball, but both teams refused to continue. The push was in the Dolphins-Bears game on Sunday as they played to a 24-24 tie in a game that ironically closed pick ’em!
Dogs are also dominating 10-4-2 SU as the Raiders-Seahawks game ended 23-23 last Thursday for the other tie. I wish I had played more dogs so far. I did lose my lone Over/Under bet on the Under 37.5 in that Raiders-Seahawks, but I’m certainly glad we avoided more Unders as Overs have dominated at 14-2 (87.5%) through Preseason Week 1.
What does this all mean? Will dogs and Overs continue to be the way to bet? I’m hearing a lot of people say the Overs could be a trend that could continue into the regular season (which usually starts off heavily in favor of Unders as the proverbial “defenses are ahead of the offenses” mantra goes), but I’m not so sure that assumption can be made.
Let’s look at Preseason Week 2, which doesn’t start until Friday. I’ll avoid Unders this weekend just in case, but obviously hope the dogs are still barking (regular readers wouldn’t expect anything else). I hope I’m not kicking myself again after the weekend for not playing more dogs, but after reviewing the schedule multiple times, I only came up with two live dogs, as all the other teams I like this weekend are favored.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-4)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET/10 a.m. PT
I’m not one to overreact to what we see in preseason, so I’ve mostly been avoiding the hype around Shedeur Sanders’ debut last Friday when he started for the Browns and led them to a 30-10 rout of the Panthers. I did watch 75% of the game as I was on Cleveland and expected a good effort (and didn’t think Carolina should be favored by more than a field goal in a preseason game). I didn’t think he was too impressive, as his decent completion percentage on 14-of-23 passing was mostly due to checking down and only threw for 138 yards. He did throw two TD passes, but his completions downfield were to wide-open receivers that even I could have hit (and my only QB experience was on the scout team in high school when I would run the triple-option).
Having said all that, I’m back on them this week as the whole team was out to win (coach Kevin Stefanski improved to 7-6-1 ATS in the preseason). Now, all of the above was written before Sanders suffered an oblique strain at Wednesday’s practice and won’t play Saturday, but everything still stands with fellow rookie Dillon Gabriel expected to get a longer look. He sat out the opener as the Cleveland QB room has been battling injuries throughout practice and the preseason. This line opened around Eagles -1 and then rose as high as 4.5 mid-week, before dropping to 3.5 and appearing to settle at Eagles -4 as of this filing on Thursday afternoon.
This is just as much a play against the Eagles as coach Nick Siriani hasn’t shown too much interest in winning during the preseason, even though he improved to 4-7-2 SU and 5-7-1 ATS with last week’s 34-27 win led by backup QB Tanner McKee vs. the Bengals (note: that was vs. another bet-against preseason coach in Zac Taylor). Philadelphia certainly has nothing to prove as defending Super Bowl champs, so I’m still giving the motivational edge to Cleveland.
Tuley’s Take: Cleveland Browns +4
Buffalo Bills at Chicago Bears (-2.5)
Sunday, 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT
This line was trending toward Buffalo. After opening Bears -1 to -2 earlier this week, it was down to pick’-em and even Bills -1 at some books. Then, first-year Chicago head coach Ben Johnson said he’s playing all the Bears’ starters this Sunday night, including QB Caleb Williams, and the line has flipped back to the Bears being favored everywhere. I guess the line move makes sense, despite reports of Williams struggling to pick up Johnson’s system in practice, as handicappers expecting the Bears to play to win with their starters after tying the Dolphins 24-24 in their preseason opener (that was Johnson’s first game, so he’s an odd 0-0-1 SU & ATS as a preseason coach).
However, I think bettors are forgetting that Buffalo’s Sean McDermott is among the best at playing to win these exhibition games at 15-10 ATS (60%) despite losing 34-25 vs. the Giants in Preseason Week 1. The Bills were without 13 players (though starting QB Josh Allen and holdout RB James Cook weren’t expected to play no matter what). But they still put up 25 points, so we should see a better overall effort Sunday night. And while the Bears’ QB rotation is decent with Tyson Bagent, Case Keenum and Austin Reed potentially following Williams, I’ll still take the Bills’ Mitchell Trubisky (9-for-13 and a TD vs, Giants and now playing vs. his former team), Mike White (8-for-13, two TDs vs. Giants) and Shane Buechele (10-for-12 vs. Giants) as they combined for 331 yards last week.
Tuley’s Take: Buffalo Bills +2.5 (or better)
