Tuley’s Takes – NFL Preseason Week 3:
We had a little change of heart here in the Tuley’s Takes home office regarding NFL Preseason Week 3. Originally, our plan was to sit out this weekend and get ready for the regular season, as we expected coaches to sit a lot of starters and use mostly players who will be cut before the season. However, NFL coaches are also still trying to figure out how best to use their three preseason games (remember, it was four before the 2020 pandemic), and with an extra week off now before the real Week 1, this week is more playable.
Besides, I’m happy with my 3-2 ATS (60%) record so far this preseason, though we only split 1-1 ATS last weekend with the win on the Browns +4 in their 22-13 upset of the Eagles and the loss on the Bills +2.5 in their 38-0 loss at the Bears. For the record, we are 0-1 with our lone total, so basically losing a little vig is the price we pay to keep up on the goings-on on the NFL landscape.
After underdogs (and Overs) dominated the Hall of Fame Game and Preseason Week 1 at 11-4-1 ATS, favorites did bounce back at 9-7 ATS last week, but leaving dogs still with an 18-13-1 ATS (58.1%) edge, just below our 60% hit rate.
I was hoping for a couple of live pups this weekend, and I think I found one. However, I also have a surprise for my longtime followers with not one but two chalk plays on Saturday.
Chicago Bears (+1.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Friday, 8:20 p.m. ET/ 5:20 p.m. PT
Don’t call me a homer with this pick, as I grew up in the Chicago suburbs. And I’m not trying not to be unduly influenced by the Bears’ 38-0 rout of the Bills in Preseason Week 2 (though, believe me, I was cheering more for my bet on the Bills until it was too late). However, Caleb Williams and the Bears offense certainly looked much better under new coach Ben Johnson, former offensive coordinator for the Lions who oversaw the rejuvenation of Jared Goff’s career.
Both teams are expected to play their starters at least some, even Patrick Mahomes for the Chiefs, but KC already has a winning culture as the near-dynasty that it is. This game should mean much more to the Bears up and down the lineup. Even though most of the talk was about Williams, especially after reports of him struggling to pick up Johnson’s system in practice, backups Tyson Bagent went 13-for-22 for 196 yards and a TD, and Austin Reed even went 6-for-7 in mop-up duty as the Bears still outscored the Bills 10-0 after halftime. I’m sure the Chiefs’ main goal is to get out of the preseason healthy.
Tuley’s Take: Chicago Bears +1.5
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) at Washington Commanders
Saturday, Noon ET/9 a.m. PT
Yes, believe it or not, Ripley, I’m laying the points in this game (and my next choice below). My “dog or pass” detractors always say I should mix in some more favorites, especially when I “pass” because I can’t make a case for the underdog. When I appeared on VSiN’s “Cashing Out” a week ago Sunday night with my colleague Dustin Swedelson, I explained again that I used to bet more chalk (especially under a field goal). When I would lose, I’d feel doubly bad because not only did I lose money, but I wasn’t able to see that the dog was live (and that’s supposed to be my specialty LOL). If I lose these two games, I don’t want to hear any more talk during the regular season about me being dogmatic with my “dog or pass” approach.
Anyway, we have NFL Preseason GOAT Coach in John Harbaugh, who is 41-20-2 ATS (67.2%) lifetime with these “meaningless” games as he clearly puts stock in winning them. He won 24 straight preseason games from 2015 through 2023 before going 0-3 last year, but has returned to form at 2-0 SU and ATS this year, including a 31-13 win over the Cowboys last week as a short underdog (how did we pass on that one?). Additionally, Washington coach Dan Quinn is already 0-2 this August, with losses of 48-18 to the Patriots and 31-17 to the Bengals. That drops him to 6-20 ATS (23.1%), worst among current head coaches; he’s also coming off a short week after playing on Monday night and turning around to play at noon on Saturday.
Tuley’s Take: Baltimore Ravens -2.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Saturday, 10 p.m. ET/ 7 p.m. PT
This is the preseason finale late Saturday night. Let’s take the Raiders as a very short favorite. Pete Carroll is one of the best NFL preseason coaches from his time with the Seahawks, even though he’s 0-1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS this year with a 23-23 tie against the Seahawks in Preseason Week 1 (failing to cover as 5.5-point chalk) and then a 22-19 loss vs. the 49ers last week as 4.5-point faves. As of this writing on Wednesday, neither head coach has said how much they are playing starters (though the line flipping from Cardinals -1.5 to Raiders -1.5 certainly says that someone knows something, right?). But whether or not Carroll starts QB Geno Smith, I’m fine with former starter Aidan O’Connell and Cam Miller (41-yard TD pass in the preseason opener at Seattle).
Tuley’s Take: Las Vegas Raiders -1.5
