Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 1:
We’ve enjoyed the appetizers on the 2025 football menu with the NFL preseason and CFB Week 0 and Week 1, but now we finally get to the main course with NFL Week 1.
And we get it as early on the calendar as possible with Labor Day falling on a Monday (as the NFL traditionally starts the weekend after Labor Day, which was September 1 this year). The regular season kicks off with another tradition of the defending Super Bowl champion (the Eagles in this case) hosting the Thursday night opener (vs. the divisional rival Cowboys), and then we get a Friday night game with the Chiefs and Chargers facing off in Sao Paulo, Brazil, before the regular Sunday slate and then wrapping up with a single Monday Night Football game with the Bears hosting the Vikings.
Even though I picked two favorites to close out the NFL preseason (going 1-1 ATS), I’m planning to stick with my “dog or pass” approach through the season (but never say never). In this weekly column, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup (full 16-game card for Week 1, some weeks will be fewer games with byes) and will be from the point of view of trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game.
Now, a lot of people ask, “if you don’t like a dog, why don’t you just bet the favorite if you believe that’s the right side?” Well, I used to do that, but the problem is that when I would lose, I’d feel doubly bad because not only would I lose money, but I’m supposed to be the dog whisperer and I couldn’t see that the dog was live. So, I feel the best course of action is to pass, at least for me personally.
Now, I know not everyone is as “dogmatic” as me, but I’ve always had a lot of readers who bet chalk tell me that they still read these columns every week because they like to see which dogs I’m not able to make a case for, as that gives them the green light to lay the points. So, the goal here is to have something for everyone as we’re all trying to beat the books, right?
Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
One more intro note: regular readers know I’ve done very well in recent years with 2-team, 6-point teasers. Many times, when I’m struggling or breaking even with my ATS Best Bets, I’ve still had winning weeks with the teasers bailing me out. The problem we face is that too many books have raised the vig. If your book has -110 on 2-team, 6-point teasers, you’ve got gold. I believe they’re still playable at -120, but we have to refuse to lay -125, -130 or higher that a lot of books are charging now (maybe they’ll lower the juice if enough bettors boycott those inflated prices – I’m not confident, but we can try, and hope).
So, let’s get to the Week 1 card. This week is a little different as these lines have been up since the NFL released the full schedule on Wednesday, May 14, so a lot of our analysis of the games will be about how the lines have arrived to where they are in game week and where the value can be found now.
THURSDAY
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)
Tuley’s Take: The 2025 Thursday Night Football lid-lifter finds us in Philadelphia with the defending champion Eagles hosting the Cowboys. The Eagles are flying high, of course, and hoping to repeat while there’s turmoil in Dallas. The Eagles should obviously be favored, and I thought it was fair to open at -7; however, after the trade of Micah Parsons, it went over the key number to 7.5. Now, several books at -8 and some already up to -8.5. In addition, the VSiN Betting Splits Page is showing 66% of the Bets on Eagles -8, while DraftKings has 66% at -8.5 (and even higher at lower numbers), so I’m perfectly willing to fade the line move. Note: I wouldn’t talk anyone off using the Eagles in teasers as I still expect them to win outright, but there are tons of games the rest of opening weekend where we can cross the key numbers of 3 and 7, so I’m not going to tie up a bunch of combos with the TNF game like I usually do when it qualifies. But since I have a bit of degeneracy in me, I will go with a 2-team 6-point teaser on the Eagles (to try to catch a middle) to the Chargers.
Best Bet: Cowboys +8 or higher, plus Eagles -2/Chargers +9 in 2-team, 6-point teaser (pool play: Cowboys 65/35 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Eagles 75/25 in SU pools).
FRIDAY
Kansas City Chiefs (-3 -115) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Tuley’s Take: Regular readers know I love fading the Chiefs because, even though they usually pull out victories, they tend to let teams stick aroun, and we can often cover with the dog against the spread even if they lose straight-up. I woulda have passed if the line stayed at the opener of Chiefs -2.5, but became playable at Chargers +3. The good news is we don’t have to lay -120 like we usually do in these cases, as the line has steamed to Chiefs -3 -115/Chargers +3 -105 at most books as of Tuesday afternoon, and we’re hoping to get the hook at +3.5 by Friday. Either way, it’s a play as the Chargers under Jim Harbaugh are narrowing the gap on their division rival, so this isn’t just a fade of the Chiefs.
Best Bet: Chargers +3 or better (pool play: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Chiefs still 55/45 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5/-3) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: The top game on Sunday’s betting board finds new Jets QB Justin Fields starting vs. his former team. In fact, there might be an added bit of revenge for Fields as he was 4-2 in Pittsburgh last year before being pulled for Russell Wilson, who went 6-6 overall. Granted, it seemed like Mike Tomlin made the right call at first as Wilson started 6-1 (though against a much weaker schedule than Fields faced), but then the schedule got tougher to close the regular season vs. the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals, and lost all four. And then lost again in the playoffs vs. the Ravens.
This line has bounced around -2.5/-3, which I use when books are split, plus they usually use added vigorish of -120 on the side you want. I might add Jets +3 if I get -110 (or in ATS contests where there is no vig), but for now, let’s officially use this to start our 2-team, 6-point teaser portfolio as we can take it up past the key number to +8.5 or +9. Here’s where we come in with a ton of potential teams to use (there are a total of 10 of the 16 games this weekend, including the aforementioned Thursday/Friday games, in what we call “the teaser zone” where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7). Possibly combos to use with Steelers +8.5/+9: Raiders +8.5 at Patriots, Falcons +8.5 vs. Buccaneers, Broncos -2 vs. Titans, Seahawks +8 vs. 49ers, Lions +8.5 at Packers, Texans +8.5/+9 at Rams and Bears +7.5 vs. Vikings.
Best Bet: Jets +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Steelers 60/40 in SU pools).
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (pick ’em)
Tuley’s Take: Most people view this game as a toss-up, including oddsmakers, as it’s been right around pick ’em all summer with both teams being -1 at different books here and there. But I keep going back to feeling the Dolphins are the better team, and my opinion that the only time to bet them is when Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. If you bet the Colts, you pretty much have to believe Daniel Jones will have his career revived with the change of scenery (ala Sam Darnold). I’m not confident that will be the case. Clearly, if this game was in Miami or on a neutral field, the Dolphins would be favored, so we’re all-in.
Best Bet: Dolphins pick’-em or better (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Jaguars went just 4-13 last season under coach Doug Pederson, who was fired and replaced by former Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen. I’m not sure why bettors have been confident enough to steam the Jags from -2.5 to -3.5 (especially as there’s a good chance Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars offense have some growing pains with the new system), but I’ll take it. The Panthers weren’t much better last season at 5-12, but started a woeful 1-7 and went a very competitive 4-5 the rest of the way, including a stretch of three games where they lost by just a combined 12 points to the playoff-bound Chiefs, Buccaneers (in OT) and Eagles. Carolina QB actually looked like a No. 1 overall pick. I’m calling for the outright upset, but will gladly take the points.
Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 (pool play: Panthers 67/33 in ATS contests and even 55/45 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)
Tuley’s Take: These are two teams that I’ve had a tough time getting a handle on the past few years. Jayden Daniels did make me more of a believer in the Commanders, but you know I’m not laying this many points. And I can’t make a case for the new-look Giants yet. I’ll be interested to hear how many of my chalk-playing readers see this as a tacit endorsement of the chalk. Best of luck if you do.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contest and 80/20 in SU pools).
Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns
Tuley’s Take: It’s strange that all my ATS Best Bets this week are early in the betting rotation, but I broke the habit long ago of trying to have a certain number of early Sunday games, a Sunday afternoon game or playing the prime-time games just because it’s the only game going on. Disciplined bettors need to just bet when they have a strong opinion or an edge. I’m not completely thrilled with this play on the Browns +5.5, but this is more of a bet against the Bengals, who have been slow starters under Zac Taylor. They’re 7-14-1 (33.3%) SU in September games the past six years, and even worse, 1-11 SU in Weeks 1-2.
They’ve tried to address the situation, including playing starters more in the preseason, but can an old Bengal change its stripes? Heck, I’m shocked at how many Circa Survivor contestants have said they’re using the Bengals despite them famously burning so many players in Week 1 last year (and twice more in later weeks). They might still win Sunday, but we just need the Browns to stay within a field goal, and we trust Joe Flacco to play game manager and keep it close.
Best Bet: Browns +5.5 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: And now we’re back to the teaser section of the schedule (the rest of the way). I do like Mike Vrabel as a coach (he was good to underdog bettors in his Titans tenure) and will be looking to bet the Patriots as dogs this season, but I’m happy to fade them – at least in 2-team-point teasers – in the season opener vs. the Raiders, who should be improved under Pete Carroll. I went ahead and bet Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers with the other early Sunday teaser games with the Jets +8.5 and Falcons +8.5. I’ll see how I feel closer to Sunday if I use the Raiders with any of the other later games below.
Best Bet: Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 60/40 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints
Tuley’s Take: We take a quick pause in the midst of our run of teaser plays to pass on this Cardinals-Saints game. Arizona is another of the top Survivor candidates in Week 1 (behind Denver at No. 1 and ahead of the Commanders, Bengals and Eagles). I wish I could make a case for the home underdog, but Spencer Rattler being named the starting QB last week (after a training camp battle with rookie Tyler Slough as New Orleans didn’t bring in a better option) makes one think the organization is tanking already..
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons
Tuley’s Take: Back to the teasers, we have what is an intriguing NFC South battle. The Buccaneers are the four-time defending division champs and are -110 favorites to win it again, but the Falcons are hoping to close the gap and are the +225 second choice. Atlanta went 8-9 last season with mostly Kirk Cousins, who was replaced by Michael Penix Jr, in Week 15 and has been given the reins to start this season. As with the other dog teaser plays, I’m not confident enough to take the very low points as we would just about need to win outright, but really love our chances moving the line six points and getting more than a touchdown.
Best Bet: Falcons +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-8)
Tuley’s Take: As you would suspect, due to my “dog or pass” philosophy, I much prefer teasers where I’m getting more points as opposed to teasing down favorites of more than a touchdown under a field goal. But I certainly do use them when warranted, and the Broncos, who we’re high on as we included a bet on them to make the playoffs in the VSiN Betting Guide, fit the bill. Titans rookie QB Cam Ward might be as good as advertised, but we’ll trust Denver to win by at least a FG.
Best Bet: Broncos -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 85/15 in SU pools).
San Francisco 49ers (-2) at Seattle Seahawks
Tuley’s Take: The line opened between 49ers -1 and -1.5 and is up to -2, but we don’t think it’ll get a field goal, so we continue with the teaser parade. Sam Darnold takes over in Seattle after his comeback season in Minnesota, and now faces the 49ers, where he really started to turn around his career. I’m not saying this is as much of a revenge game as Fields vs. the Steelers, but I’m sure he wants to show the 49ers they should have given him more of a chance to be the starter. For whatever reason, Mike Shanahan offenses never seem to fully live up to expectations, so the Seahawks should be able to keep this within one score..
Best Bet: Seahawks +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: OK, I know Micah Parsons is pretty damn good. However, I’m always willing to fade a line move when it involves a non-QB, and that’s what happened here with the Packers going from a short underdog to a short favorite after getting the former Cowboys edge rusher in a trade last week. The weird thing is we then heard reports that he might not even start the opener (though now reports say he may need an epidural injection to deal with a minor back sprain. Yet the line has remained at Packers -2.5. I’m thisclose to calling for outright minor upset, but with the line still under a field goal, I feel more comfortable using the Lions in teasers just in case..
Best Bet: Lions +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 ATS contests, but Packers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Tuley’s Take: This game has been wavering at -2.5/-3 for a long time and if it’s offered at Texans +3 as expected in my ATS contests (Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest, among others), I would call it my sixth play to work into the mix on my multiple entries with my aforementioned Best Bets, but for our purposes here I’m going to keep it in my teaser portfolio. A lot of the uncertainty was if Matthew Stafford would be able to play for the Rams after struggling with a back injury. He is expected to start, so that’s why the line has settled at 3, but I still think the Texans are the right side. I gave them out again in the VSiN NFL Betting Guide to get over 9.5 wins, win the AFC South and a longshot play to win the Super Bowl, so I better like them to get off on a winning note, right? So maybe think of the teaser play here as a bit of a hedge just in case.
Best Bet: Texans +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Rams still 60/40 in SU pools).
Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills
Tuley’s Take: The Bills have been a small favorite in this mega Sunday Night Football battle between top AFC contenders, but then the market started moving toward the Ravens as it went to pick ’em at all books. Now, as of this writing Wednesday, the major books have flipped to Ravens -1. This is a true coin flip that could go either way. As stated above, just because it’s a marquee game that everyone seems to be betting doesn’t mean we have to. With that being said, if the line continues to move and it gets to Ravens -1.5 (back into the “teaser zone” as we can get over a TD at Bills +7.5 with a 6-point tease), I might add it to the portfolio. Conversely, if the line reverses to the Bills -1.5, the Ravens +7.5 would be playable. Use this as you see fit.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
MONDAY
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Chicago Bears
Tuley’s Take: We end the weekend with a final teaser play, and hopefully will be alive with a lot of tickets to Bears +7.5. I hope I’m not being a homer here with confidence that Ben Johnson will be the answer in Chicago, as Bears fans have endured several highly touted offensive coordinator hires as head coach that turned out to be busts. Meanwhile, I’m not high on JJ McCarthy, who takes over for the Vikings. Like most people, I was higher on Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams entering last year’s draft and hope he improves in his sophomore season under Johnson. As with earlier teaser plays, I’m just not willing to call for the outright upset, so we’ll take the added points to get more than a TD. And I’ll likely be looking at the Week 2 lines before gametime and betting some 2-team, 6-point teasers with those games that fall in the teaser zone. Based on advanced lines, there appear to be eight eligible teaser plays in Week 2 (a full half of the 16-game schedule).
Best Bet: Bears +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers from Sunday, and possibly kicking off Week 2 (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings 60/40 in SU pools).
For more Week 1 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 1 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
