Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 1:
The NFL regular season can never get here soon enough in the Tuley’s Takes home office, so I guess it’s a good thing that it starts a day earlier this year with the Wednesday night opener.
We’ve had to wait exactly seven long months for “real” pro football games since the Seahawks’ Super Bowl victory on Feb. 8. The draft was nice to occupy our time along with following all the free-agent moves, etc., and we went a very satisfying 12-4 ATS (75%) with our NFL preseason Best Bets in August. We’ll take it, especially as – full disclosure here – I went an abysmal 0-4 ATS to start the college football season last weekend.
But now we turn our attention to the NFL as we will do each Wednesday here at VSiN.com (though posting a day early this week with the extra-early season lid-lifter). For the uninitiated, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game.
Now, I did give out four Week 1 Best Bets when the NFL 2026 schedule was released on May 14 (with some early leaks), but for our purposes here I’ll give my “dog or pass” plays based on the current lines for those who don’t bet early. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game. I normally end up with five Best Bets on a regular NFL slate – the same as required in ATS contests like the Circa Sports Million and the SuperContest at the Westgate – but it looks like between early bets and ones I’m adding this week that we’ll have a few more. I’ll also give out some picks for my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, though I’ll probably be cutting back on those this season as we’ll discuss when we get to those games.
Without further ado, let’s go over the full NFL Week 1 schedule.
New England at Seattle -3/-3.5
The season kicks off with the traditional weeknight opener with the defending Super Bowl champion, the Seattle Seahawks in this case, playing at home, but this year it’s on a Wednesday night, as the Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a rematch of the last NFL game we saw in February, which the Seahawks won 29-13 in Super Bowl LX. The Seahawks opened -4.5 at the Westgate SuperBook and went as high as 5.5 before the market adjusted, and as of Tuesday afternoon it was at what we call -3/-3.5, which basically means those lines are available at several books (and usually juiced around -120 on the side you’re looking to take, right? Back in May, I passed on this game, but wish I hadn’t, as I actually wrote, “When the regular season rolls around, I’ll probably bet the Patriots plus the points (and perhaps use in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest if I don’t have five weekend games I like better)” and could have gotten a better number. Still, I believe this line should be closer to pick-’em with the Pats seeking revenge and it looks like it should come down to a field goal either way. Hopefully I get +3.5 in the big ATS contests but will still take +3, and maybe that’ll cause fewer other contestants to take the Pats.
Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 for cash bets or still at +3 in contests (Pool Play Percentages: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks still 60/40 in SU pools that use weeknight games).
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. San Francisco in Australia
We also get a Thursday night game with two NFC West teams as the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers play in Melbourne, Australia. This line opened Rams -3 and actually dipped to -2.5 at a lot of books. In May, I said the only way to bet this game was if you thought the line would go to 3.5 by Week 1 and you could lock in Rams -3 or even better at -2.5 to take a shot at a middle. It would usually be tempting to take a divisional rival at +3.5, but the 49ers’ injuries concern me, and the Rams are the preseason Super Bowl champion. I actually think the line move is warranted in this case and will pass on teasers as well.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools that use weeknight games).
Cleveland +8 at Jacksonville
Moving to Sunday’s openers, the Browns +7.5 was one of my four Best Bets in May and I wish I had waited to bet it. But I like the play now even more with insurance in case it lands on 8. I bet it not only because I think the Browns will be better than most people expect with Deshaun Watson back at starting QB but also because I don’t put the Jaguars among the NFL’s elite despite their 13-4 record (think of the 2024 Vikings’ dropoff last year), plus they let other dregs of the league stay close last year in a 30-29 win over the Raiders and a 27-24 win over the Cardinals. We just need the Browns to keep this to a one-score game, and they still have a decent defense.
Best Bet: Browns +8 (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 67/33 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 70/30 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay +3.5 at Cincinnati
This was another of my Best Bets when the schedule was released and the +3.5 has stayed solid. The Bengals are expected to be better with a healthy Joe Burrow, as they went 6-11 last season, 5-3 with Burrow starting and a dismal 1-8 without him, so this is why this line is over a field goal. The Buccaneers also had a disappointing season at 8-9 as they couldn’t even win the mediocre NFC South, but I still don’t think the Bengals should be favored by more than a field goal. In fact, I definitely think this game is a coin flip and should be closer to pick-’em, especially as Baker Mayfield is 3-0 in games that both Heisman Trophy winners have started. This might be my favorite play of opening weekend.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 60/40 in SU pools).
Baltimore -3.5 at Indianapolis
With the Ravens replacing head coach John Harbaugh with Jesse Minter (I’m still not sure why!), it’s tempting to take the Colts as a home underdog of more than a field goal. However, even though Daniel Jones is expected back from his Achilles injury sustained in Week 14 last season (opening the door for the Philip Rivers comeback), the Colts usually get off to slow starts, as they were 2-12-1 in openers the prior 15 years before routing the Dolphins 33-8 in Week 1 last year. I didn’t see this line dropping by Labor Day and it hasn’t, so I didn’t feel the need to lock in early, but now I’m taking the home dog and hoping the Colts continue to do better in openers in the Jones Era.
Best Bet: Colts +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, but still Ravens 60/40 in SU pools).
Atlanta at Pittsburgh -3/-3.5
This line might have opened with the Falcons favored if Aaron Rodgers had retired, but he announced his return for one more season right before the schedule release and the Steelers opened between -1.5 and -2.5. I wrote in May that I was hoping to get the Falcons +3.5, and that’s exactly what has happened (though some books are still at +3). I’ll gladly fade Rodgers on the downside of his career even though we have to trust new Falcons starting QB Tua Tagovailoa. But at least it’s the start of the season and he’s relatively healthy.
Best Bet: Falcons +3.5, pass at +3 (Pool Play Percentages: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at +3, but Steelers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Buffalo -1 at Houston
In May, I wrote “teasers didn’t perform as well last year as in prior seasons, plus we’re seeing fewer and fewer books offering fair teaser odds, so I think it’s best to wait until Week 1 before putting together any teaser tickets.” If this line was still widely available at +1.5 (and at a book with decent teaser odds), I would tease the Texans to +7.5 and hope for a one-score game, but I’m definitely passing at +1 even at books that don’t count pushes as losses). This is a coin-flip game, so I’m staying away and watching what should be a hard-fought battle and scout for future best on both teams.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Bills 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Chicago -2.5/-3 at Carolina
Like the Rams-49ers games, I wrote back in May that the play at this time was Bears -2.5 if you thought the line would go to 3 or higher and shoot for a side or middle. It hasn’t crossed the key number of 3 to 3.5, so I’m not as interested in backing the Panthers or fading the Bears ATS. Instead, let’s make this my first official game for Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to take the Panthers up over a TD to +8.5 or +9 if you have a book that doesn’t gouge you on 6-point teasers. As alluded to earlier, always shop for not only the best line but the lowest vig you can find.
Best Bet: Panthers +8.5 in two-team, 6-point teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Tennessee -1.5
This line is similar to Bears-Panthers except the home team is favored and the road Jets are possibly playable in teasers (though the line has dipped from 2.5 to 1.5 since May). I’m not sure the right team is favored here unless you think Cam Ward will continue to improve, but I’m still not confident enough to trust Geno Smith and the Jets with the short spread, so put this down as another in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
Best Bet: Jets +7.5 or better in two-team, 6-point teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
New Orleans at Detroit -7
The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas opened the Lions -6.5, while Boomer’s Sportsbook opted for Lions -7.5 and the line quickly settled at 7 and has stayed there throughout the summer. I was hoping that the Lions being a public team would push this to 7.5 to take the Saints with second-year QB Tyler Shough, but I’m not willing to just take +7 at this point.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests, but Lions still 75/25 in SU pools).
Arizona at Los Angeles Chargers -10
I’m glad I gave out Cardinals +10.5 as the line has settled at 10, but I still like the Cardinals as a double-digit underdog. Yes, clearly the Chargers are the much better team, which is why this is the biggest spread of the week a couple of points, but I still believe in parity in the NFL. I’m also glad that QB Jacoby Brissett ended his holding and seems to be picking up new coach Mike Lafleur’s offense.
Best Bet: Cardinals +10 or better (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chargers still 80/20 in SU pools).
Miami at Las Vegas -3.5
This is the last of my four Best Bets from the schedule release. Like most of my contrarian dog plays, this is more a fade of the favored Raiders. I mean, even though the Dolphins are in rebuilding mode, should the Raiders be favored by more than a field goal over anyone, even with Kirk Cousins getting the Week 1 start? They’re coming off a 3-14 season that earned them the No. 1 pick in Indiana’s Heisman Trophy-winning QB Fernando Mendoza. They shouldn’t be favored by this much, even against a Miami team that is expected to be one of the league’s worst. I’m not a huge fan of new Miami QB Malik Willis, but he did show improvement in his time with Green Bay and he still has some skill players to work with, led by running back De’Von Achane.
Best Bet: Dolphins +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 67/33 in ATS contests, but Raiders still 60/40 in SU pools).
Washington at Philadelphia -4.5
This line opened Eagles -4.5 (though Circa was at -4), so we passed as we felt the line would still be here after Labor Day, and it is. But even though both teams had disappointing seasons last year after having high hopes with the Eagles as defending Super Bowl champions and the Commanders coming off a playoff berth, I’m still not willing to back Washington here or fade Philly. Hard pass, as it’s not even in the teaser zone for either team.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Green Bay at Minnesota -1.5
The Packers opened between -1.5 and -2.5 but were quickly bet to a consensus pick-’em. I originally wrote that I would tease the Vikings if they went back to being short dogs as some books had gone back to Packers -1. However, the line has gone the other way with the Vikings favored after former Cardinal Kyler Murray won the QB job. If I play this game now, I’d instead tease the Packers. They might end up in last place in the NFC North, but this is still a coin-flip and should be a one-score game either way.
Best Bet: Packers +7.5 in two-team, 6-point teaser (Pool Play Percentages: Vikings 55/45 in SU and ATS contests).
Dallas -2.5/-3 at New York Giants
This was similar to the Bears-Panthers game in that my first impression was that I would tease the Giants, but the early play would be to lay the -2.5 with the Cowboys in case it rose over the summer. Again, same as the Bears, it’s only gone to -3 at some books, with others holding the line at 2.5. And, also again, let’s just tease the Giants over a TD in John Harbaugh’s New York/New Jersey debut.
Best Bet: Giants +8.5 or better in two-team, 6-point teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests, but Cowboys still 55/45 in SU pools).
Denver at Kansas City -2.5
This looks like a great “Monday Night Football” game to close out Week 1, but I wrote in May, “If the line does rise to +3.5, I’ll probably be all over the Broncos ATS … but if it dips to 2.5, I’ll probably just use the Broncos in teasers.” That’s still where we sit, though I am tempted to take the Broncos even at +2.5 since it appears Denver has flipped the AFC West script on K.C. I might end up betting the Broncos by game day (especially if we can get +3), but for now we’ll just use them to anchor our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with hopefully several live tickets from games on Sunday.
Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in two-team, 6-point teasers and possibly +3 (Pool Play Percentages: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 55/45 in SU pools).
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