Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 10 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

Welcome to the second half of the NFL season in the Tuley’s Takes home office, as we just completed Week 9 of the 18-week schedule. We’re also happy to report that we closed the first half – which was a roller-coaster ride as we started great with dogs barking early in the season and then chalk taking over in October – with our third straight winning week. I’m sure some casual readers will be surprised at that as favorites have continued to do well, going 14-1 straight-up in Week 9 and 10-5 against the spread, but we went 4-3 ATS with my NFL Best Bets here.

I won with the Patriots +3.5, Panthers +7.5, Jaguars +7.5 and Buccaneers +9 while losing with the Texans +2, Broncos +9 and Raiders +7.  That means that on another NFL weekend when faves dominated, I had four of the five dogs that covered (missing only the Dolphins +6), so our “dog or pass” approach is doing its job in weeding out the weaker plays. I’m actually more proud of that than the weeks when underdogs were dominating ATS, and it was easier to find live dogs. For the record, we improved to profitability at 27-24 ATS with our NFL Best Bets on the season.

 

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Our “Tuley Teaser Portfolio” recommendations also fared well as the Browns +8 was the only losing leg in 2-team, 6-point teasers, with the Cowboys +8.5 and Seahawks +7.5 covered. One further note on teasers: in last Wednesday’s column, we gave out Texans +8 as the first leg of the TTF, and they ended up losing 21-13 to the Jets on Thursday Night Football, so that pushed the teaser. Now, I bet some teasers at +8 after filing my column and then played some on Thursday when the line moved to Jets -2.5, so I got +8.5 and trust most followers. Either way, I hope you have access to a book that gives a refund on pushed teaser legs, and they don’t take a freeroll on you to require you to win the other leg to get your money back (let the bettor beware!).

Without further ado, let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 10. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my NFL Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Thursday nighter gives me a big AFC North matchup with the Ravens (6-3) half a game behind the Steelers (6-2), with the Bengals (4-5) two games back but making their patented midseason move. Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson was listed as “questionable,” but John Harbaugh said he was in no danger of missing this game, so the line hasn’t budged. The Bengals have won three of four and are playing better (if you throw out the Week 8 clunker vs. the Eagles) since they took the Ravens to overtime in Week 5 and lost 41-38. I see no reason why this doesn’t come down to a field goal again, especially since I write every week how home-field advantage isn’t what it used to be – and road teams lead 65-51-3 ATS (56%) mostly thanks to these spreads skewed by supposed HFA. Thanks for the bonus points to increase our change to cash on this live divisional road underdog.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Bengals +6 (pool play: Bengals 67/33 in my rare ATS contests, though Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools).

New York Giants (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET

On the Cashing Out Sunday night show on VSiN with Joe Ceraulo, he asked me if any Week 10 opening lines jumped out to me, and I immediately jumped on the early Sunday morning game in Munich, Germany. The advance on this game last week was Giants -4 before they lost 27-22 to the Commanders, failing to cover as 4-point home dogs, and the Panthers pulled a 23-22 outright upset of the Saints as 7-point home dogs. We would think the line would dip, right? Nope. Instead, the Giants re-opened at -4.5, and by the time we were on the air (Ceraulo’s show is 11 p.m. to 2 a.m. ET), the line was up to -5 at most books. I was sure I would be on the Panthers, though it’s mostly a fade of the Giants. When I started writing this piece, the line was up to -6, and before I finished, we were at -6.5. I’ll take whatever the market gives us.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Panthers +6.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Giants still 67/33 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-4) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Colts were one of the dogs I was glad I passed on in Week 9 (as I said above, that’s a big part of what makes “dog or pass” work), though they were a little unlucky to fail to cover in their 21-13 loss at the Vikings as closing as 6-point dogs. I have the same feeling here as they’re only 4-point home dogs (again, we think the books giving too much credit for HFA) vs. the Bills, who are on a four-game winning streak and 3-1 ATS on the run, though they did fail to cover Sunday in their 30-27 win vs. the Dolphins as 6.5-point faves. This line is too short for me.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This line has been bouncing all over the place as the Vikings were -3.5 on the advance line last week, reopened at -4 after both teams covered on Sunday, has gone as high as -5.5 but seems to have settled at -4.5. The Vikings ended a two-game losing streak with that 21-13 win vs. the Colts, while the Jaguars have lost two straight but covered in both, including in their 28-23 loss Sunday at the Eagles as 7-point road underdogs. They were being dominated in that game before getting back into it with a scoop-and-score. Like the Bills-Colts game, this line is too short to take the home dog (or at least bet it straight, as I will use in some contests).

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests – though small number in confidence pools – but Vikings still 70/30 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-2.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This is a battle of first-place teams, with the Steelers (6-2) visiting the Commanders (7-2), believe it or not. With the way the Steelers’ offense has been more balanced since Russell Wilson took over, I was tempted to grab the +3 on Tuesday, but it dipped to 2.5 and into the prime teaser zone (where we can move the line through the key numbers of 3 and 7), so this is a good time to list our “Tuley Teaser Portfolio” recommendations. Well, because of the way the lines have fallen this week, there aren’t many 2-team, 6-point underdog teaser options, as I’m just going with Steelers +8.5 to the Dolphins +7.5 at the Rams on Monday Night Football. Now, for those who like to tease favorites (and we’ve had plenty of success with those this season as well), you can mix in some Chiefs -2 vs. the Broncos and Eagles -1.5 at the Cowboys.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Steelers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 55/45 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-8)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Speaking of the Chiefs, we were proud to cash by successfully fading them Monday night with the Buccaneers +9 as the Chiefs once again let a team stick around and brought the spread into play in their 30-24 victory in OT. But as I often write here, we strive to be selective with our “dog or pass” plays and don’t just bet or fade teams blindly. So, I’m passing on taking the Broncos here, even though they’re getting more than a full TD. As much as they have overachieved this season, they’re certainly capable of getting blown out like the Ravens did in a 41-10 rout as 9-point favorites. The Ravens’ D figured out the Broncos’ offense, and the Chiefs are actually winning more with defense (ranked No. 5 in yards allowed per game), so I’ll wait for a better spot to fade the Chiefs again.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Chiefs -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons (-4) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line for this game was pick ’em last week with Derek Carr returning to the lineup for the Saints, but then they went out and suffered an embarrassing 23-22 loss to the Panthers while the Falcons won and covered in their 27-21 win vs. the Cowboys. The line reopened Falcons -3 and went to -3.5 and is now up to -4. I get it, but I’m also willing to fade it as I still see it as too big of an adjustment. Besides, we also have two more things working for us. 1) The Saints fired Dennis Allen, and we usually see a bump from teams with a new coach. 3) The Falcons continue to play a lot of close games, as it always seems like Younghoe Koo is lining up for a late game-winning or game-tying field goal. I’ll take that.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Saints +4 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests, but Falcons 65/35 in SU pools).

San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I wrote earlier about home-field advantage not being enough to get me on underdogs (though I did take the Saints above), but in addition to road teams being well above .500 ATS overall, the subset of road favorites is also 29-17-1 ATS (63%), so again I’m being selective and passing on the Bucs here even though they covered for me vs. the Chiefs on Monday night. The 49ers are still the better team and could be getting stronger if Christian McCaffrey returns. I just think there will be better spots to fade the 49ers.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Bears -7 before the Patriots covered in their 20-17 loss in overtime at the Titans as 3.5-point road dogs and the Bears were blown out 29-9 at the Cardinals in a game that had been pick ’em last week before the Cardinals closed as 1.5-point home chalk. The line dipped to +6.5 and had gone down to 6 at some books, but I’m still willing to back the Patriots with Drake Maye continuing to improve. Maybe it was a one-game fluke for Caleb Williams and the Bears – perhaps a hangover from the Hail Mary loss at the Commanders the week before – but I still don’t think they should be laying this many points to anyone.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Patriots +6.5 or +6 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

My VSiN colleague Matt Youmans and I have written for years about how we love to fade the Chargers as chalk, as it hasn’t mattered who was the head coach or QB. Fortunately, we haven’t been fading them as much this year as they’re 5-1 SU and ATS as chalk, but this is a prime spot to do it with this line inflated over a full touchdown. The Titans were blown out by the Bills and Lions, respectively, in Weeks 7 and 8, so this is a little scary, but their defense continues to lead the NFL by allowing just 269.1 yards per game, and we feel they can contain the Chargers’ No. 22-ranked offense and stay within one score.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Titans +7.5 (pool play: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chargers 67/33 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The advance line was Eagles -3, but then the Cowboys lost 27-21 at the Falcons and Dak Prescott was injured, which is more of the reason – as opposed to the Eagles 28-23 non-covering win vs the Jaguars – for this line to steam up over a TD. I’m not averse to backing the Cowboys with Cooper Rush, but not this week. If you want to discuss home-field disadvantage, we might see that this Sunday with the boo birds out in force at JerryWorld. In fact, I wrote that I’m much more likely to play the Eagles (in teasers; I mean, you know Mr. Dog Or Pass isn’t laying -7.5!).

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Eagles -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 90/10 in SU pools).

New York Jets at Arizona Cardinals (pick ’em)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

Here’s a game that was pick ’em on the advance line before the Jets beat the Texans on Thursday Night Football and the Cardinals routed the Bears on Sunday, and after some books went to the Cardinals as short home favorites, it’s back to a consensus pick-’em. It is a true coin flip, so I’m going to stay away, except I will say that if either team moved to a 1.5-point favorite, I’ll probably add some teasers on the dog +7.5.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Jets 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The advance line on the Sunday nighter was Lions -2.5 last week before the Texans lost 21-13 at the Jets last Thursday night, and the Lions beat the Packers 24-14 on Sunday. I would understand if the line ticked up to a full field goal, but I can’t resist with it crossing the key number as we get the Texans with the “hook” at +3.5. This could very well come down to a field goal between these two division leaders. As stated above, I don’t bet home dogs blindly as much as I used to, but this certainly looks like a great spot to buck the trend.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Texans +3.5 (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions still 60/40 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams (-1.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Rams (4-4) are getting healthier and are back in the wild-card hunt, while the Dolphins (2-6) continue to scuffle despite the return of Tua Tagovailoa. This very well could be a shootout and should come down to a one-score game, so while I’m not willing to take the Dolphins ATS, I’ll tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7. Hopefully, I’m alive from my TTF recommendations from Sunday, or else I’ll probably tease Dolphins +7.5 to the Over 42.5 on Monday night or to some early Week 11 dogs in the teaser zone.

NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests, but Rams 55/45 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 10 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 10 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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