Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 10 Picks:
We’re thrilled by how Week 9 went here in the Tuley’s Take home office as we hit the halfway point of the 18-week NFL regular season and look forward to a better second half.
I went only 2-3 ATS with my best bets (which was disappointing as underdogs went 9-5 ATS overall on the weekend, so we landed on too many of the losers and not enough of the winners), but it’s encouraging to see dogs barking again after so much chalk lately. I won on the Falcons +5.5 in their 24-23 loss at the Patriots and the Panthers +13 in their 16-13 outright upset at the Packers, but lost on the Dolphins +7.5 on Thursday Night Football and the Saints +14 and Commanders +3 on Sunday.
That dropped our posted record here to a subpar 22-22 ATS, right at .500, but obviously losing the vig. We gotta do better with our “dog or pass” plays, and, again, Week 9 gave us hope. My Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio recommended legs went 5-2, and they were 5-1 if you passed on the Lions when their line was raised to -9.5 later by the weekend, as it’s not in the “teaser zone” to only go down to -3.5. I want to stress that I know it’s hard to find fair prices on 2-team, 6-point teasers, so I always stress to shop around not only for the best lines but all the lowest juice (or use alternate teasers where bookmakers haven’t raised the vig as much).
Let’s get to this week’s relatively short 14-game card (Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals and Titans are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Las Vegas at Denver (-9)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this Thursday nighter was Broncos -10.5 before they pulled out an 18-15 win at the Texans, and the Raiders lost 30-29 in OT vs. the Jaguars (but covered as 1.5-point home dogs). The line reopened down slightly at Broncos -10 but has been bet down slowly since. I believe the money is on the right side. The Broncos are 4-0 SU at home (though remember how they lucked out in the Week 7 miracle rally vs. the Giants), but only 2-2 ATS as they also failed to cover as 9-point chalk in Week 1 vs. the Titans. While the Raiders (2-6 SU, 3-5 ATS) have been pretty pathetic overall, they did play better—at least offensively—vs. the Jaguars. Besides, except for their blowouts of the Bengals and Cowboys, the Broncos (7-2 SU, but a subpar 4-5 ATS) have been more likely to let even bad teams stick around, so we just need another one-score game here.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Raiders +9 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Broncos 80/20 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Atlanta at Indianapolis (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: Most of us picked up an extra hour last Sunday with the switch to Standard Time, and we’ll put that to use with the 6:30 a.m. VT (Vegas Time) kickoff of this game in Berlin, Germany. Regular Tuley’s Takes readers will recognize this as a “mini-anti-swagger” play against the Colts, who just had a four-game winning streak snapped by the Steelers. The Colts have dropped from No. 1 to No. 2 in total offense (383 yards per game), and hopefully, the Falcons’ underrated No. 4 defense (282.5 yards per game) learned something from what the Steelers’ No. 30 defense was able to do to contain the Colts. And the Atlanta offense looked better in the return of Michael Penix Jr. (3 TD passes, no INTs).
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7, but Colts still 70/30 in SU pools).
Cleveland (-2.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: The advanced line was Jets -2 last week after the Jets snapped their season-opening seven-game losing streak in their 39-38 upset at the Bengals (Browns were also on their bye week). It reopened Jets -2.5 but has since flipped to the Browns -2.5 after New York traded away CB Sauce Gardner and DT Quinnen Williams. In my mind, this is still a swagger play on the Jets (despite the week off after ending their skid), but let’s instead kick off the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio by moving them to +8.5. Other teams in the “teaser zone” this week are: Texans +7.5 vs. Jaguars, Patriots +8.5 at Buccaneers, Lions -2 at Commanders, Steelers +8.5/+9 at Chargers and Eagles +8.5 at Packers. Mix and match as you see fit.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Jets +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Browns still 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Carolina (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Panthers are coming off their shocking 16-13 upset of the Packers as 13-point road underdogs, but it’s still hard to imagine them favored by more than a field goal over anyone, even the pathetic Saints. I want to fade the Panthers on principle, going from a big dog to a decent-sized chalk, but I just can’t pull the trigger on the Saints, who haven’t been competitive since their Week 5 win over the Giants (and that was as a favorite).
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Panthers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-9.5) at Miami
Tuley’s Take: I’ve loved NFL divisional home dogs of more than a TD for a long time. They’re not an automatic play like they used to be, but I’m willing to jump on the Dolphins here. They let me down in a very similar spot (minus the divisional angle) last Thursday in their 28-6 loss to the Ravens, but they showed in their rout of the Falcons two weeks ago that they can still step up as big dogs, and don’t forget that they also covered vs. the same Bills as 11-point road dogs in Week 3, so I’ll count on the Bills again being content to just grind out a win..
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Dolphins +9.5 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still around 90/10 in SU pools).
Jacksonville (-1.5) at Houston
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Texans -3 before they lost 18-15 vs. the Broncos and the Jaguars held off the Raiders 30-29 in OT (but didn’t cover). It reopened Texans -1 on Sunday night, but has since flipped to Jaguars -1.5 with the news that Houston QB C.J. Stroud is still in concussion protocol and will miss the game. Jacksonville acquired WR Jakobi Meyers from the Raiders at the trade deadline as Travis Hunter is on IR and Brian Thomas is nursing an ankle injury, but I’ll fade this line move and add the Texans to Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. The Texans weren’t able to hold the lead after Stroud’s departure and only managed five field goals in the 18-15 loss to the Broncos, but with Davis Mills getting a full week of reps with the first team, they should be able to stay within one score (I mean, if the Raiders were able to take the Jags to OT…).
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Texans +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contest, but Jaguars 55/45 in SU pools).
Baltimore (-4) at Minnesota
Tuley’s Take: One of my regrets from last weekend was not seeing the Vikings as live divisional dogs against the Lions, as I passed on that game and watched the Vikes not only cover +9.5 but pull the 27-24 outright upset. I hate when that happens! I don’t want to make that same mistake here, but I just can’t pull the trigger as the line seems too short to me, especially with the Ravens seeming to get back on track with Lamar Jackson’s return last Thursday.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
New England at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: This is a battle of division leaders with the Patriots 7-2 in the AFC East (though they’re going to be hard-pressed to hold off the Bills, who are -170 favorites) and the Buccaneers 6-2 in the NFC South and already holding a 1.5-game lead over the Panthers. I get why the Bucs are favored at home, but this might be my strongest teaser of the week on the Patriots, who have won six straight and haven’t lost by more than a TD all season.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Patriots +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contest, but Buccaneers still 55/45 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Chicago (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Giants were one of the underdogs I had circled when I looked at this week’s schedule, but as you’ve seen above I was able to pass on the Saints and Vikings as I try to weed out the weaker plays and I’m going to do that with the Giants as well. After their No. 29-ranked defense collapsed in the embarrassing 33-32 loss at the Broncos three weeks after leading 19-0 entering the fourth quarter, they again gave up more than 30 points each to the Eagles and 49ers while the offense wasn’t able to keep up and the same thing can happen against the Bears’ surprising No. 4-ranked offense under Ben Johnson.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Pass. (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Arizona at Seattle (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Seahawks -5.5 last week and increased to -6.5 after they routed the Commanders 38-14 on Sunday Night Football. I’m a little surprised it didn’t drop even a half-point after the Cardinals upset the Cowboys 27-17 on Monday Night Football, but I guess the chalk-loving fans trust their eyes more on favorites. Maybe it would have dropped if Kyler Murray was returning (he was placed on IR on Wednesday), but the fact remains the Cards played better with Jacoby Brissett. In addition, Arizona is a “mini-swagger” play after snapping a five-game losing streak.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Cardinals +6.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks 67/33 in SU pools).
Detroit (-8) at Washington
Tuley’s Take: The Commanders have lost four straight (including me having them the last two, including with Marcus Mariota two games ago) and now lose Jayden Daniels, so I didn’t even want to consider them here no matter how many points they’re getting. Instead, let’s count on the Lions to bounce back from a loss again. No, you know I’m not laying more than a TD, especially on the road, but we will move the line under a FG in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Lions -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 90/10 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at San Francisco
Tuley’s Take: Hopefully you read above where I took the Dolphins +9.5 vs. the Bills partly because they covered vs. them earlier this year on the road and are now getting them at home. Well, it’s the same thing here as the 49ers upset the Rams 26-23 in OT back in Week 5 as 8-point road dogs and now are still getting more than a FG at home. Being objective, this line should be a lot closer to pick ’em and certainly no higher than Rams -3 as it totally looks like another game decided by a FG.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: 49ers +4 (pool play: 49ers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 65/35 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
Tuley’s Take: After not being able to keep up with the Packers in their 35-25 home loss two Sunday nights ago, I doubted that they could do that vs. the Colts this past Sunday, but they did. I’m not making that same mistake again in the Sunday nighter, especially since the Colts outplayed these same Chargers just three weeks ago. I’m tempted to take the +3, but feel the better bet is to just include the Steelers in teasers.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Steelers +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, lower if only offered +2.5, but Chargers still 65/35 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Philadelphia at Green Bay (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Monday nighter is similar to the Sunday nighter as I’m going to anchor my Tuley’s Teaser Teaser Portfolio with the defending Super Bowl champs, but I also might bet the Eagles straight as I’m not sure the right team is favored. The Packers are 5-2-1, but the tie vs. the Cowboys exposed some weaknesses, and they’re coming off an embarrassing 16-13 loss at home vs. the Panthers to go with an equally no-show performance in a 13-10 loss at the Browns in Week 3. I know most people will say they won’t do that vs. the Eagles, but I’ll take the more consistent team.
NFL Week 10 Best Bet: Eagles +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers and possibly adding Eagles +2.5 (pool play: Eagles 60/40 in ATS contests, especially if offered +3, but Packers still 55/45 in SU pools).
For more Week 10 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 10 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
