Week 11 picks from a "dog or pass" point of view"
If you’ve followed my sports betting columns for any amount of time, you’ve probably heard me describe this lifestyle as a roller-coast with many ups and downs and twists and turns.
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It’s hard to beat the books (as legendary bookmaker Jimmy Vaccaro always says, “It’s a tough racket”), and no one wins all the time. We try to paint a realistic picture of the overall sports betting landscape each week and offer our “dog-or-pass” approach as our preferred way to try to end up on more winners than losers.
We also preach the dogmatic belief that we should never get too high after a win or too low after a loss. To steal other cliches, a play is a play, and the football season is a marathon, not a sprint.
Again, no guarantees, but we do our best to show an overall profit on a weekly basis as well as over the entire season.
So, did last weekend go? Well, I had my biggest winning weekend of the football season so far as I went 3-1 ATS with my college football Best Bets last Saturday (filed early Thursday nights at VSiN.com) and then 4-1-1 ATS with our NFL Bets Bets in this weekly column. In addition, we swept our “teaser portfolio” as our 2-point, 6-point teasers all came in with our top play of Patriots +7.5/Vikings +8.5 plus the Cardinals +7.5.
However, as much money as we won (and obviously hope our loyal readers cashed in as well), it didn’t feel so good as I was eliminated from Circa Survivor with the Ravens, who blew a 14-point, fourth-quarter lead before falling 33-31 to the Browns on a Dustin Hopkins 40-yard field goal as time expired. And this was after I thought I had avoided a bullet as I passed on the Bengals, the most popular play of the week, as they were upset 30-27 by the Texans.
Brutal.
It was hard to talk myself into the “never too low after a loss” mindset as I was in the dumps the rest of Sunday, even while my sports betting app balances continued to grow.
It’s a tough racket, indeed.
But now we get back on that horse (to further mix our metaphors) and look at this weekend’s 14-game NFL card with four teams again on their byes (Falcons, Colts, Patriots and Saints). For newcomers to this column, I’m a “dog-or-pass bettor,” and my breakdown of each game will usually be from that point of view as we try to determine if the dog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game, which is a very valid and valuable betting decision when trying to come out ahead against the books! Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still give my recommended “pool play strategy” for those in contests where you have to pick every game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-4)
As mentioned above, these two teams lost on Sunday, and many people have speculated that both might have been looking ahead to this key Thursday Night Football game between AFC North rivals. The Ravens (7-3) lead the Steelers and Browns by half a game, with the Bengals (5-4) a game and a half back. This game is big for both teams, but especially for Cincy so it doesn’t drop back to .500. Getting more than the field goal, the Bengals have to be the play, especially since this could easily come down to a field goal like six games did in Week 10.
Best Bet: Bengals +4 (pool play: Bengals 67/33 in our rare ATS contests that use TNF, while Ravens 67/33 in SU pools – yes, I have three each).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (pick ’em)
Sunday’s menu starts with the other AFC North battle, with the Steelers (6-3) visiting the Browns (6-3). The Steelers grinded out a 23-19 win vs. the Packers while the Browns upset the Ravens (ugh!), but Cleveland has lost QB Deshaun Watson for the season to a shoulder injury. We wish Watson wasn’t out as we would have loved to get more than a FG with the Steelers (the advance line was Browns -5.5 last week), but now it’s a hard pass.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Green Bay Packers
We pushed with the Chargers +3 in their 41-38 home loss vs. the Lions on Sunday, though later bettors lost as they closed +2 (like my momma told me, you better shop around!). Matt Youmans and I are thrilled the McRib is back (we both believe it helps our handicapping this time of year, though maybe it is a coincidence as it seems this stretch of the season is when we find a lot of live dogs because of overadjustment from oddsmakers and the betting public – psst, but we like to give credit to the McRib LOL!!!). We also agree with the “bet the Chargers as dogs but fade them a chalk” mantra, but in this case, I don’t think we’re getting enough points with the Packers.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-5)
The Cardinals earned their second win of the season on Sunday in a 25-23 minor upset of the Falcons. The Texans (5-4) were also expected to be one of the worst teams in the league, but they’re coming off that 30-27 upset of the Bengals as they’ve won three of their last four games and are just one game behind the Jaguars in the AFC South. With Kyler Murray having a game under his belt, it’s tempting to fade the Texans in their unfamiliar role as favorites, but I’m also passing here with CJ Stroud dealing a hot hand and not feeling we’re getting enough points with Arizona.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texan 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-9.5)
There was a time in the not-so-distant past when it was almost automatic for me to take any NFL underdog of more than a touchdown. While there’s still parity in the NFL, there are more spots where I pass on the big underdogs. For instance, I should have passed on the Giants as 16.5-point dogs (closed consensus +17.5) as they were blown out by the Cowboys 49-17. I don’t think the Commanders will romp that easily, but I’m not counting on the Giants to stay within single digits.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Giants 55/45 in ATS contest on principle, but Commanders at least 85/15 in SU pools).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
The Will Levis bandwagon had been filling up in Tennessee, but then the Titans (3-6) failed to score a TD in Sunday’s 20-6 loss at the Buccaneers to fall to 3-6 and into a must-win spot here as they trail the Jaguars (6-3) by three full games in the AFC South. Meanwhile, the Jags suffered an even more embarrassing loss, 34-3, vs. the 49ers. Even so, I’m more confident in the Jaguars to bounce back, so this is a good spot to go into our weekly “teaser portfolio.” There aren’t as many advantage teasers (aka “Wong teasers” through the key numbers of 3 and 7), so we’re starting with taking the Jaguars down to -1 and combining with the Vikings +8.5 on Sunday night. We’ll also play Jaguars -1/Eagles +8.5 and possibly Rams +7 vs. Seahawks.
Best Bet: 2-team, 6-point teaser with Jaguars -1/Eagles +8.5 and possibly others (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-9)
The Lions (7-2) are an even more impressive 7-2 ATS, so we’re glad we haven’t been fading them. However, we can’t pass up the Bears getting more than a TD in a division rivalry, especially as Justin Fields returns after missing four games. The expectation (hope?) is that Fields can pick up some of the pocket-passing success that backup Tyson Bagent had during his absence and add his unique play-making ability with his legs. This looks like a spot where the favorite is just concerned with winning and moving on, so the back door should be open even if the Bears don’t keep this close throughout (which we expect them to do).
Best Bet: Bears +9 (pool play: Bears 65/35 in ATS contests, though Lions still 70/30 in SU pools).
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-13.5)
As discussed, double-digit underdogs aren’t the automatic play they used to be, but I can’t pass on the Raiders here. They’ve won two straight behind interim coach Antonio Pierce, yet this line has ballooned from Dolphins -10 on the advanced line last week to -13.5 (and it was Dolphins -5.5 when the schedule was released in May). That’s too much of an adjustment, especially as the Dolphins have been hit-or-miss as they’re 3-3 ATS since their 3-0 ATS start to the season.
Best Bet: Raiders +13.5 (pool play: Raiders 65/35 in ATS contest, but Dolphins 80/20 in SU pools).
Dallas Cowboys (-10.5) at Carolina Panthers
Case in point on double-digit dogs not being as live as they used to be, I can’t pull the trigger on the Panthers even though they’re DD dogs at home. After the Panthers pulled a 15-13 minor upset of the Texan in Week 8, they received a lot of backing the following week as 3-point home dogs vs. the Colts but lost 27-13 heading into their bye. Meanwhile, the Cowboys had no problem covering an even bigger spread in their 49-17 rout of the Giants (granted it was at home), so I can’t Carolina.
Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contest and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers (-11.5)
Three straight games on the betting rotation with double-digit spreads, but I’m getting back on the horse here. After struggling before their bye week, the 49ers were impressive in their 37-3 rout in Jacksonville, but if I were a chalk bettor (which I’m not), I would have a hard time laying this many points with the way they were playing before the break. Besides, the Buccaneers (4-5) have been competitive all season at 6-3 ATS.
Best Bet: Buccaneers +11.5 (pool play: Buccaneers 65/35 in ATS contests, but 49ers 85/15 in SU pools).
Seattle Seahawks (-1) at Los Angeles Rams
These are two teams I haven’t gotten a handle on this season, so this is a pass for me, at least as far as the point spread is concerned. As mentioned, I am considering the Rams in my teaser portfolio, as we can take them up to +7. We’re hoping this line goes to Seahawks -1.5 so we can take the Rams through the key number of 7 to +7.5 (though, honestly, if the line flipped to Rams -1.5, we’d be just as happy taking the Seahawks up to +7.5).
Best Bet: Pass except for possible teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-7)
We loved our play on the Broncos +7.5 on Monday Night Football as we were mostly fading the Bills, and Denver pulled the 24-22 outright upset. The Bills have lost three of four and are 0-6 ATS in their last six games. Besides, don’t forget that the Jets upset Buffalo 22-16 in Week 1, even after losing Aaron Rodgers, so there is no reason they can’t stay within one score of the overrated Bills.
Best Bet: Jets +7 (pool play: Jets 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Both teams in this Sunday nighter came through for us in Week 10. It’s a toss-up with the spread, but we love teasing the Vikings up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5. I know Joshua Dobbs isn’t going to win NFL Most Valuable Player (he’s 100-1 at DraftKings), but he has been the epitome of an MVP with him elevating the play of the Cardinals and now the Vikings.
Best Bet: 2-point, 6-point teasers from Jaguars -1/Vikings +8.5, plus new one from Vikings +8.5/Eagles +8.5 (pool pay: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests, but Broncos 60/40 in SU pools).
Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5)
Super Bowl preview on Monday Night Football. A lot of people are predicting that. We’ll see, but this should be a tight game, and it’s another prime teaser play as we just need the Eagles to stay within one score – and we’ve also said how the Chiefs continue to let teams stick around. We’re hoping to have live teasers from early Week 11 games, but if we don’t (or you didn’t play those before reading this), I would opt for Eagles +8.5/Over 39.5 with these two offenses even though primetime Unders have been dominating all season.
Best Bet: 2-point, 6-point teasers from Sunday games, or Eagles +8.5/Over 39.5 (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests while Chiefs 67/33 in SU pools).
