Tuley’s Takes: NFL Week 11 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

We couldn’t have been happier with how the second half of the NFL season started last weekend in the Tuley’s Takes home office, I went 5-1 against the spread with my NFL Best Bets in this weekly Wednesday column, as we won with the Bengals +6 in their 35-34 loss at the Ravens on Thursday Night Football, Panthers +6.5 in their 20-17 OT upset of the Giants in the early Sunday game from Germany (who else loves the crowd singing “Take Me Home Country Road” and “Sweet Caroline”?), Saints +4 in their 20-17 home upset vs. the Falcons, Patriots +6.5 in their 19-3 road upset at the Bears and Texans +3.5 in their 26-23 loss at the Lions on Sunday Night Football. Our only loss was the Titans +7.5 at the Chargers.

That improved our overall record to 32-25 ATS (a solid 56.1%) on the season. And our faithful followers also know that we cleaned up again with our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” as we swept our 2-team, 6-point teasers any way you played them with the Steelers +8.5 in their 28-27 road upset at the Commanders, Chiefs -1.5 in their 16-14 home win vs. the Broncos, Eagles -1.5 in their 34-6 road rout at the Cowboys and Dolphins +7.5 in their 23-15 road upset at the Rams on Monday Night Football. 

 

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But enough looking back. Without further ado, let’s get to our Week 11 NFL best bets. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Just like last Thursday with Cincinnati-Baltimore, we get a great TNF matchup with Washington (7-3) visiting Philadelphia (7-2) with the NFC East lead on the line. The advance point spread for this game last week was Eagles -3.5, and it hasn’t budged. That tells us the oddsmakers and the public still regard the Eagles as the better team, even without home-field advantage. But I don’t see much of a difference as Philly has the edge on defense, allowing 17.9 points per game vs. 21.7 given up by Washington, but the Commanders average 29 points per game compared to 25.9 for the Eagles. I have this as pick ’em to win the game straight-up (heck, if you use the above averages, you come to a score of Eagles 23.8, Commanders 23.45), so you know I love getting the “hook” at +3.5. This could very well come down to a field goal either way.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Commanders +3.5 (pool play: Commanders 67/33 in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Eagles still 67/33 in rarer SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at Chicago Bears

1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line for this old-school rivalry was Packers -3.5 before the Bears had their ugliest performance of the year in a 19-3 home loss vs. the Patriots. The Bears looked like a potential playoff team (when the entire NFC North was above .500), but they have lost three straight games, starting with the Hail Mary loss at the Commanders and really bad losses to the Cardinals and Patriots. This line reopened Packers -6.5. Even that wasn’t enough to get me to back the Bears at this point. The move down to 5.5 (not sure who saw value at +6.5 because it wasn’t me) has us running away even faster.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

The Browns were on their bye last week, so that kept us from burning money on them. Regular Tuley’s Takes readers will recognize the Saints are in a “swagger” spot after snapping a seven-game losing streak with their 23-22 upset of the Falcons as 4-point home underdogs, so you know I’m not going to fade them with the Browns ATS. However, this is a good spot to start out “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” as we can move the spread through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to Browns +8.5. We’ll use it with the other games in the “teaser zone,” with the Falcons +8.5 at the Broncos, Chiefs +8.5 at the Bills and Bengals +7.5 at the Chargers. For those who also like teasing favorites down under a field goal (like we successfully recommended doing with the Chiefs and Eagles in Week 10), you can use the Dolphins -1.5 vs. the Raiders and Texans -1.5 at the Cowboys.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Browns +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 60/40 in all SU & ATS contests).

Los Angeles Rams (-5) at New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Rams -5.5, and that’s where it reopened after the Patriots beat the Bears 19-3 and the Rams lost 23-15 to the Dolphins on Monday night. We would expect the line to dip after that, and it has to Rams -5 (what we call “no man’s land,” as it’s right smack-dab in the middle of the key numbers of 3 and 7). It pretty much tells you the oddsmakers are just as confused as the public on these two teams. But while most people were saying the Rams were coming on strong, I think we all saw that they’re still a better team to take as an underdog instead of laying points. We’re willing to fade them with a New England team that is 3-0 ATS since getting blown out by the Jaguars in London with upsets of the Jets and Bears, plus covering in a 20-17 OT loss at the Titans in Week 9. I see a similar close game here.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Patriots +5 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 67/33 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-3 -120) at Pittsburgh Steelers

1:00 p.m. ET

This is the marquee game in the early window, but it doesn’t mean we have to have a bet on it (remember that “dog or pass” is called that for a reason). Many people regard the Ravens (7-3) as the best team in the AFC, but the Steelers (7-2) actually lead the AFC North and are looking even more dangerous with the comeback of Russell Wilson. Some might think I would be all over the divisional home underdog, but I’ll pass on Steelers +3. The added juice on the Ravens -3 -120 tells us we might get +3.5 at some point, and I would flip to the Steelers on principle, but I still don’t have it as my stronger dog plays of the week.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests, flipping to Steelers if offered +3.5, and Ravens 70/30 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins (-7.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

Let’s get this straight. Heading into Monday Night Football, the whole world (or at least the TV “experts”) seemed to be thinking the Rams were on the road to the playoffs, but then the Dolphins beat them 23-15, and now those same people are on the Miami bandwagon? Well, that’s what this line tells me, with the still-struggling Dolphins favored by more than a touchdown over the Raiders. I mean, maybe the Fish will carry that momentum into this weekend and rout Las Vegas, but the Raiders have covered their last three games (+7 at the Rams, +9 vs. the Chiefs and +7.5 at the Bengals), so there’s no reason to think they can’t keep this to a one-score game as well.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Raiders +7.5 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Dolphins 75/25 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-14)

1:00 p.m. ET

Here we get the Jaguars (2-8), who many are ranking as the worst team in the NFL right now, visiting the Lions (8-1), who many have as the best team in the NFC. Look elsewhere if you want someone to make the argument that the Lions are much better, but you know you won’t get that here as we know it’s built into the line as it was Lions -10.5 last week and now up to two full touchdowns. Double-digit NFL underdogs used to be a blind play, but even we know we have to be selective nowadays as they are 0-3 ATS (Patriots +10.5 at 49ers in Week 4, Panthers +10 at Commanders in Week 7 and Titans +12.5 at these same Lions in Week 8). However, this line has gotten out of hand, especially after the Jaguars’ defense kept them in the game at the Vikings this past Sunday before only losing 12-7. I don’t see a similar score here, but if the Jacksonville defense plays half as well, Mac Jones should be able to stay within two TDs.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Jaguars +14 (pool play: Jaguars 67/33 in ATS contests, but Lions at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings (-6) at Tennessee Titans

1:00 p.m. ET

My only Week 10 loss was on the Titans, so I admit I’m a little gun-shy in backing them again, even though it is a little tempting after watching the Vikings not be able to pull away from the Jaguars, as mentioned above. However, even though the Tennessee defense (still No. 1 in total defense, allowing just 273.6 yards per game) could give Minnesota similar problems, I don’t trust the Titans’ offense to match the Vikes score for score.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets (-4)

1:00 p.m. ET

This matchup is so unexciting that it was flexed out of the Sunday Night Football game to early afternoon (and hence at the bottom of the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs listed here, even though it’s the penultimate game in the betting rotation order). How many weeks have we said the betting markets have been all over the Jets, expecting them to turn their season around? It’s crazy, yet here they are favored by more than a field goal even after an embarrassing 31-6 loss at the Cardinals? Silly me – I’ll keep fading them. Besides, while Joe Flacco certainly filled in admirably, I see the Colts getting a spark with the return of dual-threat QB Anthony Richardson. (Note: while I was writing the rest of this column Wednesday afternoon, the line inexplicably went from 3.5 to 4, making me love this play even more).

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Colts +4 (pool play: Colts 70/30 in ATS contests, and let’s call for the outright upset in more than half our SU pools at Colts 55/45).

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

As you can see, I like several dogs this week, even more than usual. Regular readers will recall that this often happens after I have a great week, but trust me when I say I’m fully aware when it “looks too easy,” and I need to study even harder and be more selective. This is the case here where, at first glance, I’m sure many of you are assuming I’ll take the divisional dog because these two teams are so familiar with each other. However, even though the 49ers didn’t cover in their 23-20 win at Tampa Bay and have underperformed overall so far this season (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS), they are getting healthier, and I’m not taking less than a TD here.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests ).

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

These have been Jekkyl-and-Hyde teams all season, and the point spread reflects that as the Falcons were -2.5 on the advance line last week, and now it’s flipped to Broncos -2.5 after the Falcons were upset 20-17 by the Saints and the Broncos valiantly covered in a 16-14 loss at the Chiefs as their game-winning field goal was blocked. As I wrote last week in my pick of the Saints +3.5 (closed +4), the Falcons always seem to play close games, so this looks like it’ll be a one-score game one way or the other so we’ll just tease the Falcons up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5. 

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Falcons +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but flip slightly to Broncos 55/45 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5)

4:25 p.m. ET

This is the game of the week, and so that’s why there are just two other games in the “afternoon” time slot. I was on “Cashing Out” again on Sunday night, and my VSiN colleague Joe Ceraulo asked me again for the line that jumped out at me (last week, I took the Panthers +5 vs. the Giants in Germany). I picked the Chiefs +2.5 here, even though I admitted I probably sounded like a square taking Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. But while I’ve done very well fading the Chiefs, as I always write that they let teams stick around even though they usually win (and the two-time defending Super Bowl champions are the last unbeaten team at 9-0 this season). I was more than happy to jump on them the last time they were 2.5-point road underdogs at San Francisco in Week 7. That was one of their easiest wins of the year when they beat the 49ers 28-12. They obviously get up for these big games. I mentioned above that we were using the Chiefs in our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” but I’m also taking them ATS and on the money line.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Chiefs +2.5, plus +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chiefs 60/40 in ATS contests and 55/45 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)

8:20 p.m. ET

This was flexed to the Sunday nighter to replace the Colts-Jets game and with good reason. The Chargers (6-3) have emerged as the second-best team in the AFC West behind the Chiefs, but let’s not get too carried away. Their three-game winning streak has been against the Saints, Browns and Titans. I know, I know, you can only play the teams in front of you. Still, the Bengals were similarly hot before narrowly losing 35-34 at the Ravens a week ago Thursday night. The Bengals are certainly live dogs here off the mini-bye, but since there are dogs I like better this week, we’ll just use them in teasers as we have another game that should come down to one score.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Bengals +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but flip to Chargers 55/45 in SU pools).

Houston Texans (-7) at Dallas Cowboys

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

This battle for Texas looked better on the schedule before the season started, with the Cowboys now 3-6 after losing Dak Prescott. Still, I was half-tempted to take the inflated line here with the home underdog, especially since no team has covered in their game after playing the Lions. However, Cooper Rush didn’t look like the answer in the Cowboys’ 34-6 loss vs the Eagles on Sunday, and if they couldn’t get up for their division rival, I’m not sure an in-state non-rival gives them much more motivation. Instead, we’ll use Texans to anchor our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” as we did with the Dolphins +7.5 last Monday night.

NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Texans -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at -7.5, and 80/20 in SU pools).

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