Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 11 Picks:
The second half of the NFL season started nicely here in the Tuley’s Take office.
I went 3-2 ATS with my Best Bets starting with another Thursday Night Football winner with the Raiders +9 in a 10-7 loss at the Broncos and added wins in the early Sunday games with the Falcons +6.5 covering in a 31-25 OT loss to the Colts in Berlin and the Dolphins +9.5 in their shocking 30-13 home rout vs. the Bills. Unfortunately, our perfect NFL Week 10 was spoiled in the Sunday afternoon games with the Cardinals +6.5 and 49ers +4 both losing blowouts to the Seahawks and Rams.
But the other good news was our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio had another great week to add to our profits no matter how you used them as they went 5-1 with our teams in the “teaser zone” (underdogs +1.5 to +2.5 so we tease 6 points up over a TD or favorites -7.5 to -8.5 so we tease down under a FG, aka “Wong teasers” for old-timers). For those who didn’t get the Texans +7.5 before the line dropped to pick ’em, our recommended plays were 4-1 but still plenty profitable as the only losing pick was the Steelers +9. Other winning legs were the Jets +8.5, Patriots +8.5, Lions -2 and the Eagles +8.5.
My Best Bets got back over .500 at 25-24 ATS, certainly nothing to write home about but again encouraging for the rest of the season (especially as longtime VSiN viewers know that Matt Youmans and I both believe the return of the McRib at McDonald’s helps our handicapping – though I think the truth is that we both feel more confident with our plays this time of year after see these teams play half a season, but that’s a discussion for another day).
Let’s get to this week’s 15-game NFL card (Colts and Saints are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
New York Jets at New England (-13)
Tuley’s Take: Before the season, this Thursday nighter looked like a throw away game that most fans/bettors would ignore, but it certainly has more intrigue with the Patriots being one of the pleasant surprises of the season as they’re tied for the best record in the AFC at 8-2 and lead the Bills by 1.5 games in the AFC East. They’re also riding a seven-game winning streak.
This line opened Patriots -10.5, and it’s not surprising that it’s steamed to -13 with the public jumping on the bandwagon, especially since the Jets have mostly been a bet-against team this season. However, the Jets snapped their season-starting 7-game losing streak and have now won two straight, albeit over the Bengals and Browns. Even with the Patriots playing as well as they are, they shouldn’t be favored by this many, plus the Jets aren’t as bad as they looked earlier in the season, so give me the generous points with the divisional dog. In addition, we’re 5-3 ATS with TNF dogs and have written before how most people think the short week helps the better team, but we think it levels the playing field a little.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Jets +13 (pool play: Jets 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Patriots still 80/20 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Washington vs. Miami (-2.5/-3)
Madrid, Spain
Tuley’s Take: Sunday’s early international game (6:30 a.m. Vegas Time) comes from Madrid, Spain, with the unappealing matchup of the Commanders and Dolphins. My first lean was to take the Commanders plus the 3. (For newbies, the -2.5/-3 in the header means books are split and also that they usually charge added juice on the side they want.) But they’ve burned me enough this season with both Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota that I have to pass, including passing on using them in teasers.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Green Bay (-7) at New York Giants
Tuley’s Take: We’re much more excited about the early Sunday games starting in the traditional 1 p.m. ET/noon CT/10 a.m. PT window. The advance line was Packers -7 and reopened -8.5 after the Giants lost 24-20 at the Bears on Sunday. Then, after the Packers lost 10-7 vs. the Eagles on Monday Night Football, the line has gone back to 7. I wish I had bet the +8.5, but we’ll still take the full touchdown with the Giants getting the “new coach bump” after the firing of Brian Daboll. Our only reservation is that with Jaxson Dart and Cam Scattebo out (and Jameis Winston in) that the G-men might go back to how they looked with Russell Wilson to start the season.
However, I’m choosing to focus on Week 2 when everyone was throwing Wilson under the bus and the Giants rallied against the Cowboys in a game that ended in a 40-37 OT loss (though they covered as 5-point dogs). Also, remember that the Cowboys played the Packers to a 40-40 tie, so I know the Giants can play a similar game here and keep it to one score.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Giants +7 (pool play: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but Packers still 80/20 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay at Buffalo (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: This is a pretty good interconference matchup buried in the early Sunday schedule with the Buccaneers and Bills both at 6-3 and obviously eyeing the playoffs. I’m tempted to take the Bucs to bounce back from their 28-23 loss vs. the Patriots, but the Bills are also in need of a rebound win after losing 30-13 at the Dolphins. The Bucs can certainly trade scores with the Bills and stay closer throughout, but this is a case of just feeling like I’m not getting enough points with the dog.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bills 70/30 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: Both these teams have been tough to figure out this season. The Bengals are 3-6 and waiting for Joe Burrow to return. The Steelers, who are clinging to the AFC North lead at 5-4 with the Ravens gaining fast at 4-5 since the return of Lamar Jackson, looked great in upsetting the Colts 27-20 two weeks ago, but sandwiched around that performance were subpar ones in losses to the Packers and Chargers.
Granted, those teams are better than the Bengals; however, don’t forget that right before those last three games, they lost 33-31 to these same Bengals with Joe Flacco. You hear a lot of handicapping talk about revenge games, but I prefer to take the team that proved it could win head-to-head, especially when getting points in the rematch. You’ll give me +5.5 on the team that won the first matchup? Thank you very much!
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Bengals +5.5 (pool play: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contest, but Steelers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Houston (-6.5) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: These teams have also met already this season, with the Texans rolling to a 26-0 shutout. I don’t like teams (even divisional home dogs) in these revenge spots either. I mean, maybe if the Titans showed they could do something against the Texans’ No. 1 defense (allowing just 261.3 yards per game), but they didn’t, and no way I would take less than a TD. This has also moved down out of the teaser zone, so I’ll pass there as well, as we have plenty of better options on the rest of the card.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Chicago at Minnesota (-3)
Tuley’s Take: Don’t look now but my childhood heroes, the Bears, are 6-3 and tied for first in the NFC North with the Lions. Don’t get me wrong, I certainly know that the four-game winning streak earlier this season was against the non-Murderer’s Row of the Cowboys, Raiders, Commanders and Saints in between blowout losses to the Lions and Ravens when actually facing good teams. And their current two-game win streak (both on late rallies) were over the short-handed Bengals and Giants, so I’m not “crowning their asses” like Dennis Green would say.
Having said all that, I would take the Bears if this was +3.5 as they only lost 27-24 to these same Vikings in the season opener that closed pick’em. Instead, let’s kick off the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio here with the Bears up to +9 in 6-point teasers. Other recommended TTP plays include Jaguars +8.5 vs. Chargers, Seahawks +9 at Rams, Cardinals +9 vs. 49ers, Ravens -1.5 at Browns and Lions +8.5 at Eagles. Mix and match as you see fit. As always, shop around for not only the best lines to tease but also the lower juice you have access to.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Bears +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 60/40 in SU pools).
Carolina at Atlanta (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Falcons were expected to be the team to challenge the Buccaneers in the NFC South this season, but they’re only 3-6 while the Panthers are a surprising 5-5. I’m not saying the Panthers should be favored on the road here, but I’m certainly surprised the line is over a field goal, and I’ll gladly take the hook. In addition, does everyone forget the Panthers shut out the Falcons 30-0 in Week 3? Again, besides the fact the Panthers lost to the lowly Saints on Sunday, I believe oddsmakers and the public are looking at the revenge angle and still believing the Falcons are the better team.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Panthers +3.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Falcons still 60/40 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5/-3) at Jacksonville
Tuley’s Take: Youmans and I used to both love fading the Chargers as favorites as the organizations used to underachieve in that role for years, but John Harbaugh has really done a great job and we’re fading the Bolts less frequently. And we’re not going to bite on the short number here with the Jaguars as overmatched home dogs, but we will tease them up over a TD in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Jaguars +9 or +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
Tuley’s Take: I don’t know if you’re seeing a pattern, but we have several of these games this week with low spreads where it’s hard for me to pull the trigger ATS and then have to decide if it’s still worth it to play in teasers. This battle for the NFC West lead (both teams are 7-2) certainly qualifies on all levels, and I will include the Seahawks in teasers in the first meeting that should be closer to pick’em, with the Rams only really favored due to “home-field advantage.”
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Seahawks +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Rams still 65/35 in SU pools).
San Francisco (-3) at Arizona
Tuley’s Take: We have a similar situation here with the other two NFC West teams, except it’s a road favorite and the 49ers did eke out a 16-15 home win vs. the Cardinals back in Week 3. Both teams were blown out last Sunday by the Seahawks and Rams, but I expect this to be a closer game in the rematch, so the teaser is the obvious play.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Cardinals +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS pools on principle, but 49ers 65/35 in SU pools).
Baltimore (-7.5) at Cleveland
Tuley’s Take: This is an odd afternoon start (4:25 p.m. Cleveland Time), but it’s good to see the NFL trying to balance the schedule a little. The Ravens are hitting their stride since the return of Jackson, while the Browns just lost 27-20 at the Jets after closing as 2-point road favorites. I didn’t understand the love out there for the Browns last week, and I wish I had bet the Jets ATS but at least used them in several teasers. You know I’m not laying more than a TD with anyone, but I’ll include the Ravens as the lone chalk in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Ravens -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-4) at Denver
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Chiefs -2.5 last week before the Broncos eked out a 10-7 win vs. the Raiders on TNF and that caused it to reopen -3.5 on Sunday afternoon. I know the Chiefs are coming off their bye and coach Andy Reid is one of the all-time best in that ATS role, but I still think the oddsmakers have overadjusted here, especially with the line now up to 4. I have to believe the Chiefs’ bye was already factored into the line as well as the fact they’re 2.5 games behind the Broncos and need this win if they have any chance of defending as AFC West champs, so I’ll take the bonus points in a game that should come down to a field goal.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Broncos +4 (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 65/35 in SU pools).
Detroit at Philadelphia (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: This Sunday nighter reminds me of this past Monday night when the Eagles opened +2.5 at Green Bay when I felt they should have been favored. I wish I had bet them ATS but instead just went with teasers. While that game closed pick ’em, there are some +3s that have popped up, and I might add the Lions as an ATS play in contests or with bets over the weekend, but for now, we’ll just anchor our teasers with them in what should be another Sunday night barnburner that comes down to one score.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Lions +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers, and possibly Lions +3 -110 if available (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contest, higher at +3, but Eagles still 60/40 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Dallas (-3.5) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: I’m going to this game on Monday night, so I’d love to make a case to bet and cheer the Raiders, but even though they covered for us last Thursday night as 9-point road dogs at the Broncos in a hard-fought 10-7 loss and also covered as 1.5-point home dogs in a 30-29 OT loss vs. the Jaguars, I’m still feeling the line is to short to take them even with the hook at 3.5.
NFL Week 11 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Cowboys 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 11 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 11 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
