Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 12 Picks:
For years, my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans and I have credited our handicapping success at this time of year to the return of the McRib at McDonald’s. We didn’t really believe there was magic in those pressed pork patties and barbecue sauce, but it was hard to ignore the coincidence that we would both usually get hot while enjoying our favorite fast food item.
Well, we can’t give the McRib credit for our winning record last week because there weren’t any in Nevada last week when we were doing our handicapping (though I did have some in Reno/Sparks., Nev., this past Sunday while seeing my daughter Peyton, a musical theater major at UNR, perform in the lead role of Anne Sullivan in “The Miracle Worker” and Youmans had some on a trip to San Diego).
Instead, we have to say what we knew all along—our success at this time of year had more to do with having a better feel for our “dog or pass” plays and the dogs cooperating as oddsmakers and the public were setting the lines high enough for our plays to cover more often.
I went 2-1-2 ATS with my NFL Week 11 Best Bets last weekend, starting with a push on the Jets +13 in their 27-14 loss at the Patriots on Thursday Night Football. In Sunday’s early games (while I was enjoying my McRib in Sparks about a mile from the Circa Sports book at Legends Bay Casino), I won with the Panthers +3.5 in their 30-27 OT upset of the Falcons and lost with the Bengals +5.5 in their 34-12 loss at the Steelers and pushed with my published pick of Giants +7 in their 27-20 home loss vs. the Packers (I hope followers were able to get the +7.5 on Sunday like I did). We capped off the winning weekend in the Sunday afternoon session with the Broncos +4 upsetting the Chiefs 22-19.
McRib or not (and mcriblocator still said as of Wednesday that the McDonald’s closest to Las Vegas offering the McRib is more than 100 miles away in St. George, Utah), we also did very well with our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as our recommended legs went 5-1 with wins on the Bears +9, Jaguars +9, Seahawks +9, Ravens -1.5 and Lions +8.5 with the only losses coming in legs using the Cardinals +9.
But enough looking back. Let’s get to this week’s 14-game NFL card (Broncos, Chargers, Dolphins and Commanders are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Buffalo (-6) at Houston
Tuley’s Take: We’ve had success fading the Bills this season (Dolphins +11 in Week 3, Saints +16 in Week 4, Patriots +7.5 in Week 5, Dolphins again at +9.5 in Week 10), but I was glad I passed on the Buccaneers +6.5 as the Bills bounced back with a 44-32 win. I felt the line was too short to take the dog (even though I’m 5-3-1 ATS, 62.5%, on TNF this season), and I feel the same with this Thursday nighter. Houston QB Davis Mills has been serviceable in place of C.J. Stroud, and the Texans’ defense is doing its job, but still not confident the D can contain Josh Allen and Co. enough for Mills to keep this within one score.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texans 55/45 on principle in rare ATS contests that use TND, but Bills at least 75/25 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Pittsburgh at Chicago (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: As a Midwestern boy growing up in the Chicago suburbs, I loved the Bears, even though they didn’t make the playoffs until I was a teenager (hey, the Bulls and Cubs made me wait longer for their championship teams). I liked the draft pick of QB Caleb Williams in 2024 and the hiring of coach Ben Johnson after last season, so I’m happy for their 7-3 start and leading the NFC North, but I have no problem saying they’re not as good as their record, with several close/lucky wins over not the strongest of competition. The Steelers (6-4) still lead the AFC North at 6-4, with the Ravens gaining fast. The main topic of conversation about this game is the status of Aaron Rodgers (left wrist), who is considered questionable. But even when news comes out suggesting Mason Rudolph could start, the line only fluctuates before Bears -2.5 and -3. We do see this as a one-score game regardless, so let’s start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with Steelers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers with our other plays in the “teaser zone” where we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7: Patriots -2 at Bengals, Cardinals +9 vs. Jaguars and Falcons +7.5 at Saints. As always, not only shop for the best lines to tease but also the lowest juice you have access to.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Steelers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Baltimore (-13.5)
Tuley’s Take: Lamar Jackson is back, and the Ravens are on a four-game winning streak (started with Tyler Huntley in a 30-16 win vs. the aforementioned overrated Bears), but remember that they barely got by the Browns on Sunday in a 23-16 victory and didn’t cover after closing as 7.5-point road favorites. Now they’re asking to win by two TDs over the Jets, who beat those same Browns 27-20 the week prior and pushed on +13 last Thursday (which would cover here) in a 27-14 loss at the Patriots and had their chances to get within single digits. If Justin Fields and the Jets can play the same way they did against the Pats (and with 10 days’ rest), they can cover here against a Baltimore team that just wants to continue its win streak and doesn’t need to win by margin.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Jets +13.5 (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, but Ravens still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Detroit (-10.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Giants came through for us on Sunday, covering against the closing line of +7.5 in their 27-20 loss at the Packers. And that was with Jameis Winston not throwing any TD passes (though he did run for one) in place of Jaxson Dart, who appears ready to return from his concussion suffered two weeks ago. The Lions, who are pretty even with the Packers in my book, still are one of the best teams in the league, but they’re only 6-4 and haven’t been as dominant as expected this season and tend to let teams stick around, though they did blow out the Commanders 44-22 two weeks ago. Regardless, if the Giants can stay within 7 of the Packers with Winston, I surely expect them to stay within 10 with Dart.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Giants +10.5 (pool play: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions still 90/10 in SU pools).
New England (-8) at Cincinnati
Tuley’s Take: The Bengals let us down last week as they stuck around with the Steelers, trailing just 10-6 at halftime, but then got run over in the 34-12 rout. They look like a team just waiting for Joe Burrow to return. Meanwhile, even though the Patriots’ 9-2 record is even more inflated than the Bears’, they should still be able to take care of business here. Followers of my “dog or pass” philosophy know I’m not going to lay more than a TD, but we love the Pats as a chalk play in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Patriots -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Seattle (-13) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: The Titans have been a tough team to figure out this season. They have the league’s worst record at 1-9, and have been blown out five times by more than 13 points, as No. 1 draft pick Cam Ward continues to go through growing pains. Tennessee’s lone win was the fluky 22-21 upset of the Cardinals, which was more the Cards giving that game away, but they’ve also covered in losses at the Broncos in Week 1 and their last two games against the Chargers and Texans. Even though the Seahawks are playing well at 7-3, it’s too hard to pass up a double-digit home dog even though they don’t cover anywhere near as much as they used to.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Titans +13 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks still 90/10 in SU pools).
Minnesota at Green Bay (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: This is a tough call as I usually like divisional underdogs because the players/teams are so familiar with each other, but this comes down to me feeling the line is too short to take the dog (which we’ll also see later with the Cowboys vs. the Eagles). The Vikings somehow beat the Lions 27-24 three weeks ago with J.J. McCarthy but have lost their last two games to the Ravens and Bears. Regular readers know I think the Packers’ defense is overrated since trading for Micah Parsons, but they are No. 6 in total defense (allowing just 292.1 yards per game) and No. 7 in scoring defense (19.6 points per game), and that doesn’t bode well for McCarthy, who holds onto the ball too long and takes a lot of sacks. I would need more than a full TD.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Packers 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Kansas City (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: Here’s a dog that I’m sure the vast majority of my readers assume I’m taking, especially since I often write about how the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around before pulling out narrow wins. In addition, the Colts have been the better, more consistent team so far this season and looks like a live dog. However, just like the Vikings above, the line is too short for me to back the dog (it was +4.5 on the advance line last week, so the Colts are also looking like a public dog when I prefer when I’m contrarian). Patrick Mahomes is also 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the game after back-to-back losses, so I’ll pass on fading that trend.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Jacksonville (-3) at Arizona
Tuley’s Take: Here’s another line that’s too short for me to take the underdog Cardinals, who upset the Cowboys 27-17 three Monday nights ago behind Jacoby Brissett but have been blown out the last two weeks by the Seahawks and 49ers. I’ll still use them in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, though probably least of the options listed above like last week. The Jaguars did rout the Chargers 35-6 on Sunday, but that was only their second win by more than a TD this season, so a one-score game is more likely.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Cardinals +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, flip if only offered +2.5, but Jaguars 67/33 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Las Vegas (-4)
Tuley’s Take: I was at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas for the Raiders’ 33-16 loss to the Cowboys, and would love to fade them here as home favorites. However, even though the Browns’ defense was good enough to get their backers the cover as 7.5-point home dogs in their 23-16 loss to the Ravens on Sunday, I’m not willing to back Shedeur Sanders in his first start on the road.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Atlanta at New Orleans (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: Michael Penix Jr. is having season-ending knee surgery, so the Falcons are turning back to Kirk Cousins. The last time Cousins started for Penix was Week 8 when Atlanta was blown out 34-10 by a struggling Miami team so there’s not much confidence in the Falcons (3-7) seeing improvement with Cousins, but I’ll still use them +7.5 in teasers as more of a fade of the lowly Saints (2-8).
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Falcons +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).
Philadelphia (-3.5) at Dallas
Tuley’s Take: I alluded to this game earlier that I feel the line is too short to take the Cowboys even though they’re divisional home dogs getting more than a field goal. I would usually love this spot as the Cowboys did cover for us in their season-opening 24-20 Thursday night loss in Philly and now they get points at home, but the Eagles (8-2) are still significantly better on both sides of the ball and I expect them to win by a TD or more.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: This Sunday night is a battle of first-place teams with the Rams (8-2 in the NFC West) hosting the Buccaneers (6-4 in the weak NFC South). The Rams are riding a five-game winning streak while the Bucs have dropped two straight vs. the AFC East’s Patriots and Bills, so it’s obvious the Rams should be favored, but I have it at closer to a field goal or -3.5. I usually prefer if I’m getting value crossing a key number, but I still have the Bucs as the right side. Despite their lopsided losses to the Bills and earlier this year at the Lions, Baker Mayfield usually keeps the Bucs in their games and I definitely see this being decided by a late field goal.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 67/33 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Carolina at San Francisco (-7)
Tuley’s Take: The Panthers have been very good to us lately, going 7-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Bryce Young struggled a lot on the road from the start of his pro career in 2023, but we were glad we backed him as a 13-point road underdog in Green Bay in Week 9 as Carolina pulled off the 16-13 outright upset. Of course, I passed on them as home chalk the following week vs. the Saints as they lost 17-7 as 5-point home favorites, but then jumped back on them as 3.5-point road dogs at Atlanta last Sunday in their 30-27 OT upset. If they could beat the Packers and Falcons on the road, they can certainly stay close in San Francisco. But this can also be seen as a play against the inconsistent 49ers, who haven’t handled success very well lately. Since the start of last season, they’re 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS after a win.
NFL Week 12 Best Bet: Panthers +7 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but 49ers still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 12 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 12 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
