Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 13 Picks:
Happy Thanksgiving to all!! It’s Thanksgiving Week here in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and around the country, of course), so we have early deadlines to get in our bets and contest plays before stuffing ourselves on Thursday.
We’re happy to be coming off our third straight winning week with a 3-2 ATS mark in NFL Week 12 last weekend. We started great in Sunday’s early games with wins on the Jets +13.5 in their 23-10 loss at the Ravens, Giants +10.5 in their 34-27 OT loss and Titans +13 in their 30-24 home loss vs. the Seahawks, then unfortunately lost the Sunday and Monday night games with the Buccaneers +6.5 at Rams and the Panthers +7 at the 49ers.
My record on the season improved to a barely profitable 30-27-2 ATS (52.6%), but we also swept our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as we went 4-0 with our recommended plays on the Steelers +8.5 at the Bears, Patriots -2 at the Bengals, Cardinals +9 vs. the Jaguars and Falcons +7.5 at the Saints, so any 2- or 3-teamers hit no matter which combo(s) you used. We’re thrilled that they are back on track after a brutal October.
But enough looking back. Let’s get to this week’s full 16-game NFL card with no teams on a bye over Thanksgiving Weekend. For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Green Bay at Detroit (-2.5/-3)
Tuley’s Take: The traditional Thanksgiving Day opener is, of course, in Detroit with the Packers (7-3-1) visiting the Lions (7-4) as they’re both trying to catch the Bears in the NFC North or stay in the wild-card race. If the proverbial “playoffs were to start today,” the Packers would be in and the Lions would be out. For newbies, the -2.5/-3 in the header means that books are split between the two lines (and usually charging extra juice on the side most bettors want) and also that oddsmakers have these two teams even and around pick-’em on a neutral field.
The Packers closed as 1-point home favorites in their season-opening meetings and dominated in a 27-13 victory, and regular readers know I like taking teams that are getting points after winning an earlier meeting in the same season (I’m not a big fan of “revenge,” or more specifically, feel the market overrates it).
The number is too short for me to take the Packers against the spread, so let’s start the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio for Week 13 by moving the Packers up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 and use with the other NFL teams in the “teaser zone” this weekend: Cardinals +8.5 at Buccaneers, Jets +8.5 vs. Falcons on Sunday and Patriots -1.5 vs. Giants on Monday night. As always, shop for the best lines plus the lower juice on your teasers.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Packers +8.5/+9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-3) at Dallas
Tuley’s Take: The Chiefs are the lone road favorite on Thanksgiving. Home dogs have not fared well on the holiday, going 6-20 ATS since 2004, so that doesn’t give me much confidence in the Cowboys despite their come-from-behind win against the Eagles on Sunday. Besides, this number is too short for my liking. I would certainly need more than a field goal to consider taking the Cowboys in this spot, and I’m not sure I’d take them if getting close to a TD (which is why I’m also not making an argument to use them in teasers).
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)
Tuley’s Take: The Turkey Day nightcap has been much-discussed in Circa Survivor as a lot of entrants were saving the Ravens for “Thanksgiving/Black Friday Week” after Joe Burrow was injured earlier this season. Of course, now he’s back, so we’ll see how that shakes out. As for our ATS purposes here, I’m not ready to jump on the Burrow bandwagon in his first game back. And, frankly, if you were considering Burrow/Bengals in this spot, you should have taken the advance line of +11.5 last week, as it was pretty clear Burrow was coming back soon. The line is too short now, especially as some books have been dealing +6.5 early this week.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
FRIDAY
Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)
Tuley’s Take: Since I grew up (well, that’s debatable as I’m an adolescent Midwestern boy at heart!) in the Chicago suburbs, I’m thrilled that Ben Johnson and Caleb Williams have the Bears at 8-3, but I feel I can still be objective as I’m certainly aware they’ve done it with smoke and mirrors with most of their wins against a weak schedule while getting blown out when they’ve faced top teams like the Lions and Ravens (with Tyler Huntley, no less).
Still, the Eagles aren’t as consistent as they were in their Super Bowl-winning season. I was hoping to get at least the hook at +7.5, but the Bears’ success has kept this at 7, and I still believe they’re the right side in what should be a one-score game (in fact, while not including as official play in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, I still expect Philly to win straight-up and wouldn’t talk anyone out of teasing the Eagles down to -1 and shooting for a middle with them hopefully winning by a field goal).
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Bears +7 (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but Eagles still 75/25 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Houston at Indianapolis (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: It looked like the Colts (8-3) were running away with the AFC South earlier this season, but the Texans (6-5) can actually pull within a game of the lead with a win on Sunday (plus hold the tiebreaker with another meeting coming up in the season finale). The Texans looked impressive, especially on defense, in their 23-19 upset of the Bills last Thursday night and have had the mini-bye to prepare for this important divisional game. And that was with Davis Mills, while it looks like C.J. Stroud will be back from concussion protocol. I make this line a FG max, so grab the Texans ASAP before it drops (as some books have been bet down to 4 as of late Wednesday afternoon).
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Texans +4.5 (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Colts still 67/33 in SU pools).
Arizona at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: The main storyline for this game is whether Baker Mayfield will start or not. Teddy Bridgewater was taking first-team reps early in the week, plus the line has dipped from Bucs -3 (after being -6.5 on the advance line last week) to -2.5, so those are all signs that Bridgewater is probably starting. We cashed with the Cardinals in our teasers on Sunday as they took the Jaguars to OT and only lost 27-24, so let’s play them that way again since I still don’t trust them enough at the short number.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Cardinals +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Jacksonville (-6.5) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: The Titans also cashed for us on Sunday, getting +13 as home dogs vs. the Seahawks. It didn’t look good early, but they got in the back door. I’m going to write this several more times this week, but the number is too short for me under a TD here, so I’m gonna pass on them until I get a better spot again.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: I’ve been burned fading the Rams several times this season (including Sunday night with the Buccaneers); however, the Panthers have been very good to me this season (Cowboys, Packers, Falcons twice), so I can’t pass them up as double-digit home underdogs. I expect a stronger effort from the Panthers back at home than they showed on the road in San Francisco on Monday night.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Panthers +10.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 75/25 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Miami (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: With the full 16-game schedule, you know there have to be some duds, and this is one of them. The Saints beat the Panthers 17-7 before their bye, but then came out of their bye on Sunday and lost to the reeling Falcons 24-10. If they had shown anything, I would take them here as more of a fade of the Dolphins, but this is a hard pass with so many other games to choose from.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests, but Dolphins still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta (-2.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: Here’s another clunker, but as bad as the Jets (2-9) have been this year, they’re actually 7-4 ATS and have been at least competitive in most of their games. Even though I’d love to fade the Falcons here as I’m not raising their stock too much by beating the Saints, the number is too short for me to take the Jets +2.5. So, that’s why they’re another game in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Jets +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Falcons still 60/40 in SU pools).
San Francisco (-5.5) at Cleveland
Tuley’s Take: Yep, I’m repeating myself here, but again this line is just too short for me to take the home dawg Browns in the Dawg Pound. I mean, they dominated the Raiders 24-10 here in Sin City on Sunday, but it was the Raiders, after all. Even though the Browns’ defense should keep them in the game, I believe the 49ers will grind out a comfortable, spread-covering win like they did Monday night vs. the Panthers.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Minnesota at Seattle (-12)
Tuley’s Take: Now, just like Thanksgiving dinner, here’s a spread I can sink my teeth into. Former Viking Sam Darnold certainly has the Seahawks playing well, but if the Titans could cover against them, so can the Vikings. The advance line last week was Seahawks -7, it reopened -8 after the Seattle no-covering win and Minnesota’s 23-6 loss in Green Bay. It has steamed to Seahawks -12 as of Wednesday afternoon (and as high as -12.5 at Circa Sports, which is the line they used in the Circa Sports Million) with undrafted Max Brosmer (University of Minnesota) starting in place of J.J. McCarthy. I don’t get the line move – Brosmer is an unknown quantity with just three preseason games under his belt but he can’t be worse than McCarthy was playing, right? – but I’ll take all the points I can get.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Vikings +12 (pool play: Vikings 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks 80/20 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-3/-3.5) at Pittsburgh
Tuley’s Take: OK, we’re back to the short lines here, even with Aaron Rodgers expected to be back for the Steelers. I’ve made the mistake of not trusting the Steelers before this season, but this just doesn’t look like a good spot for them, as the Bills should be re-focused after losing to the Texans last Thursday and having a mini-bye. Again, maybe I could make the case for the Steelers if this line wasn’t only hovering around a field goal.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
Tuley’s Take: This line is Chargers -9.5, but I’m still throwing in the “line is too short” pile as it’s the Raiders we’re talking about. They just lost by 14 at home vs. the Browns and before that lost by 17 to the Cowboys. They did have that cover in the Broncos’ ugly 10-7 win in the Week 9 Thursday nighter, but I’m not counting on a similar result here as another blowout seems more likely.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Chargers 90/10 in SU pools).
Denver (-5.5) at Washington
Tuley’s Take: There were some reports that Jayden Daniels (dislocated left elbow) might be able to return for this game, but that’s looking more and more doubtful and again puts this line in the too-short category for me, as we can’t expect a repeat of the Broncos’ ugly non-cover vs. the Raiders that I mentioned above.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
MONDAY
New York Giants at New England (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this Monday nighter was Patriots -8.5 last week before they failed to cover in a 26-20 win at the Bengals and the Giants covered as 14-point dogs in a 34-27 OT loss in Detroit that they probably should have won outright. Anyway, the line was adjusted and reopened Patriots -7 and was bet to -7.5 early in the week but now seems to be trending back down, so if you’re with me, grab +7.5 sooner because I’m guessing it won’t be around later (and I like this play whether Jaxson Dart returns or if it’s Jameis Winston again). The Patriots are 9-2, but even more overrated than the Bears if you ask me. However, I will use them in teasers at -1.5 or -1 and try to catch a middle.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Giants +7.5, plus Patriots -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Giants 60/40 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 75/25 in SU pools).
For more Week 13 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 13 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
