Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 14 Picks:
We hope you had a happy Thanksgiving like we did in the Tuley’s Takes home office (and dining room). Of course, you know I was thankful for underdogs going 3-0 SU ATS on the day and then the Bears +7 keeping the holiday weekend going on Black Friday in their 24-18 upset at the Eagles.
That started our fourth straight winning NFL weekend here at 3-2 ATS as we then added wins early Sunday with the Texans +4.5 in their 20-16 upset at the Colts and the Panthers +10.5 in their 31-28 home upset vs. the Rams for three straight outright upsets with our “dog or pass” plays. Unfortunately, for the second straight week, we gave back some of our winnings in the later games with the Vikings +12 losing 26-0 at the Seahawks and the Giants +7.5 losing 33-15 at the Patriots.
But that did make our posted Best Bets more profitable on the season at 33-29-2 ATS (53.2%), plus we had a second straight 4-0 week with our recommended 2-team, 6-point teaser legs in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio (not included in our Best Bet record) with the Packers +9, Cardinals +8.5, Jets +8.5 and Patriots -1.5 so it’s been great to see those performing well again after a midseason slump.
But enough looking back. However, speaking of looking back, a college friend found a link to a “Tuley’s Tout” NFL picks column (against the spread) from my junior college newspaper – The Courier at College of DuPage in the Chicago suburbs – in October 1985 (yes, more than 40 years) when I was 19. So, I’ve been reminiscing a lot today.
Sorry for the non-sequitur. Let’s get to this week’s 14-game NFL card (Patriots, Giants, 49ers and Panthers have their bye week).
For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Dallas at Detroit (-3)
Tuley’s Take: The Thursday nighter didn’t look as appealing earlier in the season but is pretty much a wild-card elimination game now as the Lions (7-5) and Cowboys (6-5-1) would be staying home if the “proverbial playoffs were to start today). The idle 49ers (9-4) lead the Lions by 1.5 games, and the loser of this will be hard-pressed to make it (Lions currently +120 to even make the playoffs at Circa and the Cowboys +275).
The Cowboys have won three straight, including the 24-21 come-from-behind win vs the Eagles a week ago Sunday and their 31-28 home upset of the Chiefs on Thanksgiving, while the Lions have lost two of three, including losing 16-9 to those same Eagles and getting upset 31-24 by the Packers on Turkey Day.
I’m tempted to take the Cowboys with the field goal, but I feel better about starting our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio by teasing them up over a TD and just count on a one-score game. There are plenty of teams in my so-called “teaser zone” (aka Wong Teasers capturing the key numbers of 3 and 7) in Week 14 with the Commanders +8, Jets +9, Seahawks -1, Jaguars +7.5, Buccaneers -2.5, Broncos -1.5 and Chargers +8.5, so mix and match as you see fit. And, as I like to stress every week, even though we’re 8-0 the last two weeks and the vig hasn’t mattered, still be sure to shop around for not only the best lines to tease but also the lowest juice.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Cowboys +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Lions 67/33 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Washington at Minnesota (-2)
Tuley’s Take: There’s a lot of QB news surrounding this game. Jayden Daniels’ status is still to be determined (Friday?) for the Commanders, while J.J. McCarthy is expected back for the Vikings. So this line has been all over the place with the Vikings -3 on the advance line, reopening at pick’-em late Sunday afternoon, then the Commanders favored, and now the Vikings.
Despite my winning weekend, my biggest embarrassment was having the Vikings +12.5 in their 26-0 shutout at the Seahawks. Undrafted rookie Max Brosmer didn’t play as well as I had hoped, but I don’t think he was as bad as most people are saying. Granted, the pick-six he threw was a terrible all-time blooper, but his two other INTs were right in the receivers’ hands. I guess I’m saying I don’t see McCarthy as a major upgrade and worthy of favoritism even against Marcus Mariota, so let’s add the Commanders atop the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Commanders +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Miami (-3) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: Both teams are having disappointing seasons, but the Jets are a surprising 8-4 ATS as they’ve been mostly competitive despite their 3-9 SU record, while the Dolphins have won three straight with a shocking upset of the Bills, an OT win over the Commanders in Spain, and a non-covering 21-17 win vs. the Saints. I think this line should be closer to pick ’em, so I’m again tempted to take the 3-point dog, but I think that’s fool’s gold. I still don’t trust Justin Fields enough to cover such a small number and prefer just using the Jets in teasers.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Jets +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Dolphins still 60/40 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Cleveland (-4)
Tuley’s Take: I thought Dolphins-Jets was an ugly matchup, but this takes the Week 14 cake. I would love to fade the Browns, but despite the Titans being able to cover in losses to the Chargers, Texans and Seahawks, they’re more likely to get blown out like their 25-3 home loss to the Jaguars on Sunday. Basically, I don’t trust them to suddenly show up just because they’re stepping down in class. Hard pass as plenty of other games to follow on Sunday.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh at Baltimore (-6)
Tuley’s Take: With both teams at 6-6, this game is for the lead in the AFC North. I’ve loved betting the dog in this series over the years as these games often come down to a field goal. Still, the Steelers were in control of this division early and have come back to the pack, while the Ravens started a shocking 1-5 but have gone 5-1 even though Lamar Jackson hasn’t returned to his previous MVP-worthy form. This looks like two trains passing in the night, and I’ll have to pass on the dog even if Aaron Rodgers is cleared to play. (Note: if Mason Rudolph starts and this line goes over a TD, I wouldn’t talk anyone out of adding the Ravens in teasers).
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle (-7) at Atlanta
Tuley’s Take: Over the summer, the Falcons were -2.5 in the Week 2-18 lines at the Westgate with Michael Penix Jr. installed as the starting QB in Atlanta. The Seahawks (9-3) are battling the Rams in the NFC West. With the Falcons (4-8) underachieving, it’s not surprising that Seattle is favored by a full TD on the road. However, I think that’s too much of an adjustment. The Seahawks have earned the oddsmakers’ respect, but I think they’re disrespecting the Falcons too much. Kirk Cousins hasn’t been horrible and the offense has scored 24 points in each of the last two games. If they can come close to doing that again, they can stay within one score for the cover. (Note: While saying that, I’m also planning to use the Seahawks in teasers and shoot for a middle here with them, hopefully just winning by a field goal.)
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Falcons +7, plus also Seahawks -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks 75/25 in SU pools).
Indianapolis (-1.5) at Jacksonville
Tuley’s Take: The Texans were the short favorite to win the AFC South before the season, while the Colts appeared to be running away with the division early. However, we’re here in Week 14, and both these teams are 8-4, so this is for the AFC South lead (with the Texans still looming after upsetting the Colts on Sunday). This line is around pick-’em as it should be, but I’m loving the home dog getting more than a TD in the Tuley’s Teaser portfolio. I like Jaguars +7.5 even better than the Commanders +8 mentioned earlier, though I’ve already put in a 2-team teaser with these two games as well.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).
Chicago at Green Bay (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: This game has been flexed to the Sunday afternoon session at 4:25 p.m. Eastern/3:25 Central with first place on the line in the NFC South, though the teams meet again in less than two weeks (Saturday, Dec. 20) in Chicago. The Bears (9-3 and currently holding the No. 1 seed) are one of the surprising teams this season and are riding a five-game winning streak. The Packers (8-3-1) have been more up and down but are just half a game back due to their tie vs. the Cowboys. Even though the Bears have padded their record against a weak schedule, I still think this should be closer to PK or the Packers minus a FG at the most. I don’t give Green Bay too much for home-field advantage as they lost to the Panthers as 13-point home favorites and it didn’t help them in their 10-7 home loss in the Week 10 Monday nighter vs. the Eagles, who the Bears just beat (on the road, by the way) if you like games vs. common opponents, which I do.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Bears +6.5 (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still 67/33 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-8.5)
Tuley’s Take: We do these in rotation order, but FYI, this is the last game of the early Sunday window. The Buccaneers are desperately trying to hold off the idle Panthers in the NFC South as they just lead by half a game with two meetings still to come. A win here means they might be able to hold them off with a split. I normally lose to fade teams in “must-win spots,” but even though the Saints covered in their 21-17 loss at the Dolphins on Sunday, they haven’t been competitive except their wins over the Giants and Panthers, while losing six games by double digits, so the Bucs join the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Buccaneers -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 80/20 in SU pools).
Denver (-7.5) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: We were hoping that when the Raiders moved here to Vegas, they’d have more success. If anything, the team has gotten worse. They are 2-10 and already eliminated from the playoffs. Regular readers know that doesn’t mean I won’t try to make a case for a division home dog like this, but I can’t pull the trigger in this case. The Broncos join the Bucs as chalky teaser legs.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Broncos -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Raiders 55/45 on principle in ATS contests, but Broncos 80/20 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-8) at Arizona
Tuley’s Take: Unlike the Raiders, I can make the case for the Cardinals as divisional home underdogs getting more than a TD. The Cardinals have come through for us as dogs a couple of times this season with Jacoby Brissett, including Week 9 at the Cowboys and in teasers like Sunday by losing by just 3 points vs. the Bucs at +8.5. This line basically asked them to cover the same number. Longtime readers will also recognize this as an “anti-swagger” play against the Rams, who just had their six-game winning streak snapped, so this is a letdown spot for them.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Cardinals +8 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams 80/20 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Buffalo (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Bills (8-4) probably can’t catch the Patriots in the AFC East and are hoping to hold on to a wild-card spot, but don’t forget how the Ravens had much more to play for on Thanksgiving night but were upset 32-14 by the Bengals in Joe Burrow’s return. Even though Joe Flacco played well at times, Cincinnati looked so much better with Burrow and even the defense played better. They’re a live dog again here against a Buffalo team that has gotten in the habit of letting lesser teams stick around.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Bengals +5.5 (pool play: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still 67/33 in SU pools).
Houston at Kansas City (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: Speaking of letting teams stick around, regular readers know I’ve been saying that about the Chiefs in recent years (cashing tickets while fading them even if they come back to eke out wins) and it’s really caught up to them this season at 6-6 and out of playoffs if they were to start today. Meanwhile, the Texans are coming off impressive back-to-back upsets of the Bills (with Davis Mills) and Colts (in C.J. Stroud’s return) and should be in this game throughout, so while I bet +4 earlier this week, the “hook” at +3.5 is too much to pass up and I’ll be using as my top contest play.
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Texans +3.5 (pool play: Texans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Philadelphia (-2.5/-3) at Los Angeles Chargers
Tuley’s Take: This Monday nighter is a good one with the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles leading the NFC East and the Chargers chasing the Broncos in the AFC West and solidly in the wild-card race. As a nonconference game, it’s not must-win for either team, but it should be played with playoff intensity throughout. I might take the Chargers +3 if not forced to pay extra juice, but for our purposes here, they’re a solid anchor to close out our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio and hopefully we’re alive to them with the Cowboys from Thursday and some of aforementioned legs on Sunday (starting with Commanders and Jaguars is asked for my preferred teasers on Wednesday’s deadline).
NFL Week 14 Best Bet: Chargers +8.5/+9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles 65/35 in SU pools).
For more Week 14 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 14 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
