Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 16 Picks:
We can’t believe it’s NFL Week 16 already here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. I’ve had a good second half of the season here in this weekly column, but mostly traded money last weekend. I actually had a losing Week 15 against the spread at 2-5 ATS with wins on the Chargers +4.5 and Colts +13.5 but losses on the Cardinals +9.5, Jets +13.5, Browns +7.5, Lions +6 and Titans +12.5 (though hopefully anyone following got +13 for a push).
Fortunately, I cut my losses with a winning total as I made a best bet of the Vikings-Cowboys Over 47.5 on Sunday Night Football and also had a profitable Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as those recommended plays went 4-1 with winners on the Commanders +8.5, Bears -1.5, Broncos +8.5 and Saints +8.5 with the only losing leg being the Bengals +8.5.
All in all, I wasn’t too disappointed with my results considering favorites led 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS with Overs going 9-6-1.
But enough looking back. Let’s take a look at the full 16-game NFL schedule in Week 16. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each pro football matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order, though note that the Packers-Bears game is the Saturday nightcap and the Patriots-Ravens game has been flexed to Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET, with the Bengals-Dolphins game moved to the 1 p.m. ET window.
THURSDAY
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: Thursday Night Football is a dud of a matchup more often than not, but we get this barnburner with two 11-3 teams battling for the lead in the NFC West (and I’m sure we’re all seen or heard by now that it’s the first time a pair of 11-win teams have met on TNF). The advance line for this game was pick ’em last week and reopened there on Sunday afternoon after the Rams beat the Lions 4-34 and the Seahawks escaped with an 18-16 win vs. the Colts. Everything says this game is a coin flip, but while I was writing this column the line moved to the Seahawks being favored at home and into the so-called “teaser zone” at -1.5 as we can use 2-team, 6-point teasers to capture the key numbers of 3 and 7 with the Rams +7.5 to kick off our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio for the week.
I also like the fact the Rams won the earlier meeting 21-19 in L.A. and expect a similar battle in the rematch. Our other recommended TTP legs this weekend are the Giants +8.5 vs. the Vikings, Patriots +9 at Ravens, Panthers +3 vs. Buccaneers, Chargers +8.5 at Cowboys and Cardinals +8.5 vs. Falcons. Mix and match as you see fit, but as always, remember to shop around for not only the best line to tease but the lowest juice.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Rams +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in all my rare SU and ATS contests that use TNF).
SATURDAY
Green Bay (-1) at Chicago
Tuley’s Take: The Bears get their rematch with the NFC North lead on the line just two weeks after losing the first meeting 28-21 in Green Bay. With the move to Chicago, it looks like another one-score game, but I was disappointed to see the line drop from Packers -3 to -1 (and even pick ’em at some books as of Wednesday) and out of the teaser zone. I might revisit this if the line goes to -1.5 either way, but for now it’s a hard pass.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bears 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington
Tuley’s Take: Many people expected Washington to challenge the defending Super Bowl champions for the NFC East crown, but that didn’t happen with the Commanders’ disappointing season, and now Jayden Daniels is done for the year. Marcus Mariota was terrible in their 31-0 loss at the Vikings two weeks ago, but they played better this past Sunday (albeit against the lowly Giants) with a 29-21 victory to snap an eight-game losing streak. Longtime “Tuley’s Takes” readers will recognize this as a “swagger play” on the Commanders, so we’ll take the points against an Eagles team that has been inconsistent all season (a 31-0 shutout of the Raiders doesn’t change my opinion on that) and only able to clinch the division because the other three teams have scuffled.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Commanders +6.5 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 75/25 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Buffalo (-10) at Cleveland
Tuley’s Take: Just when we think Josh Allen and the Bills are down (whether in the AFC East race or early in a game), they keep rallying from behind and find themselves just one game back of the Patriots heading into this weekend after rallying to beat them 35-31 on Sunday. They’re almost certain to win this game even if they fall behind again, but I feel the line is overinflated. The advance line was Bills -8.5 last week before the Bills’ rally and the Browns getting routed 31-3 by the Bears. Sure, the Bills could win in a similar fashion, but it’s more likely they’ll be content to grind out a one-score win and move on. Despite allowing 31 points to the Bears, the Browns’ defense is still legit and should do enough to contain Allen & Co. and keep this closer than most people expect.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Browns +10 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills still at least 95/5 in SU pools).
New York Jets at New Orleans (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: Both these teams have pretty much played their way out of the discussion for the No. 1 draft pick (though the Jets are still just one win ahead of the Titans and Raiders). The Saints are coming off a 20-17 upset of the Panthers, and I guess that’s why this line has steamed to -4.5. I would normally fade this bad of a team getting this much public support and laying this many points, but the Jets’ blowout losses to the Dolphins and Jaguars don’t inspire any confidence. Hard pass as too many other games to follow on Sunday.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Saints still 67/33 in SU pools).
Minnesota (-2.5/-3) at New York Giants
Tuley’s Take: This is an ugly game, too, but both teams seem more intent on trying to finish the season strong. The Vikings’ offense has looked much better since J.J. McCarthy’s return, but we expect Jaxson Dart and the Giants to match them score-for-score. That puts this game solidly in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as we hit a stretch of games in the rotation that are also in the “teaser zone.”
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Giants +9 or +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 67/33 in SU pools).
New England at Baltimore (-3)
Tuley’s Take: This is a huge game with the Ravens still trying to catch the Steelers in the AFC North and the Patriots trying to hold off the Bills in the AFC East, so it’s no surprise it was flexed to Sunday Night Football. The advance line for this was Ravens -1 before the Patriots’ loss at the Bills on Sunday, and the Ravens finally put together a complete game with a 24-0 shutout at the Bengals. It reopened Ravens -2.5 and has since been bet to a full field goal. It’s tempting to take the points with a still underrated Patriots team, but in case the Ravens are back on track, I feel the safer play is to put them in our teasers.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Patriots +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 65/35 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay (-3) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: Here’s another game lined right at 3 with the NFC South lead on the line as both teams are 7-7. That’s an overachieving record for the surprising Panthers but a disappointment for the Bucs. I don’t remember looking at the advance line for this game a few weeks ago, but I’m sure it was more than a field goal. We all know the Panthers’ struggle as chalk (and on the road), but they look like my favorite teaser leg of the day as we can get them more than a TD at home in what really looks like a one-score score with playoff intensity.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Panthers +9 in 2-point, 6-point teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bucs still 67/33 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-3) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: Here’s yet another game in the same point spread neighborhood, but I have no problem passing on the side or even in teasers. Everyone knows that the Chiefs have been eliminated (look up “Super Bowl loser hangover” in your Gamblers’ Dictionary) and Patrick Mahomes is out for the season, but I don’t see any value in the underdog Titans. The advance line was Chiefs -10.5 when they were still alive and Mahomes was healthy. No matter what you think of Gardner Minshew, this line is still too short for me.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas (-2/-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: OK, now we get to the point of the schedule that I love. I’m a little surprised the Cowboys are still favored and have even risen from -1.5 to -2 and even -2.5 at some books as of this writing on Wednesday. The Cowboys might not even have anything to play for if the Eagles clinch the NFC East on Sunday; but regardless, the Chargers (10-4) have been playing better all year and are on a three-game winning streak, including back-to-back upsets of the Eagles and Chiefs. If it gets to a full field goal (on the betting boards or in contests), I probably won’t be able to resist taking the Chargers +3, but for our purposes here, let’s add it as another strong leg in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Chargers +8.5 or +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Atlanta (-2.5) at Arizona
Tuley’s Take: Like some games above, these two teams are playing out the string with backup QBs Kirk Cousins and Jacoby Brissett. The Cardinals have already been put into the TTP, but let’s also make this our Over play of the week like we did with the Vikings-Cowboys on Sunday night. For those who don’t remember, I like these plays between also-rans where the defenses don’t have any incentive to step up and these games often turn into “playground-like shootouts” from my youth.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Falcons-Cardinals Over 48, plus Cardinals +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Falcons still 65/35 in SU pools).
Jacksonville at Denver (-3)
Tuley’s Take: This is a battle of first-place teams with the Jaguars (10-4) trying to hold off the Texans in the AFC South and the Broncos (12-4) trying to hold off the Chargers in the AFC West. The Broncos aren’t sneaking up on anyone with an 11-game winning streak, but I think the oddsmakers are tipping their hand that the Jags are a live dog, as this line seems short. However, with the way the Jaguars have been playing lately, I’m still willing to take the +3 (and I wouldn’t talk anyone out of adding them to teasers).
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Jaguars +3 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 65/35 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh at Detroit (-7)
Tuley’s Take: The Lions are in danger of missing the playoffs as they trail the Packers by 1.5 games for the last wild-card spot in the NFC. I guess that explains why they’ve gone from -6.5 to -7 despite losing 41-34 at the Rams on Sunday, and two of their last three games as bettors see them in a “must-win situation.” But as I’ve often written, just because a team must win doesn’t mean it will win (or cover, which is what we’re most interested in). The Steelers have just as much motivation as their AFC North lead is down to one game over the Ravens, and they would love to clinch the division with a 2-game lead before their Week 18 rematch. Aaron Rodgers has gone from looking washed up to being regarded as a tough out in the playoffs. I’ll take the TD head start in what should be a one-score game.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Steelers +7 (pool play: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions still 70/30 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Houston (-14)
Tuley’s Take: Oh, boy. The Raiders are looking historically bad. It’s a wonder they’ve won two games (Week 1 at the Patriots, which is even more shocking now, and Week 6 vs. the Titans, which could cost them the No. 1 draft pick) and have lost eight in a row. Meanwhile, the Texans have won straight and are probably playoff-bound and trying to catch the Jaguars in the AFC South. This looks like a rout, but I still can’t pass up a double-digit underdog, especially when the favorite doesn’t need to win by margin to accomplish their goals. And don’t forget that the Raiders just covered two weeks against the Broncos, so say what you will about Pete Carroll, he coaches to the end.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Raiders +14 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Texans at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Cincinnati (-4) at Miami
Tuley’s Take: It’s a good thing this was flexed out of Sunday night as even the Dolphins’ slim chances to make the playoffs have disappeared. The advance line was pick-’em and actually reopened Dolphins -1.5 on Sunday afternoon after the Bengals were shut out 24-0 by the Ravens earlier in the day, but then flipped favoritism to Cincinnati -1.5 after Miami’s loss at Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football. It has since been adjusted through the key number of 3 as of this writing Wednesday afternoon with Tua Tagovailoa being benched. I would normally fade such a move with the home underdog, but I’m not willing to back rookie QB Quinn Ewers in his first NFL start.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
MONDAY
San Francisco (-6.5) at Indianapolis
Tuley’s Take: The Monday nighter looks like two teams heading in opposite directions, with the 49ers (10-4) a game behind the Rams and Seahawks in the NFC West and the Colts (8-6) having blown their AFC South lead and now trailing the Jaguars by two games while also a game behind the Texans for the last wild-card spot. This line has risen from 49ers -5.5 to -6.5 based on all of the above, but I’m willing to fade the move and take the underdog Colts. Philip Rivers certainly showed a lot of rust in his first game back in place of Daniel Jones, and he still almost pulled off a shocking upset of the Seahawks as a 13-point underdog. He has the right to improve, plus the Indy defense actually showed me more by keeping the game close, only to lose 18-16. If the defense plays half as good here, the Colts should take this to the wire again with a shot again at the outright upset. As I wrote last week, when I like an underdog ATS and list a game as 67/33 in SU pools, I’m predicting that if they played the game three times that the dog would win outright once and cover in one of the two wins by the chalk.
NFL Week 16 Best Bet: Colts +6.5 (pool play: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 16 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 16 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
