Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 17 Picks:
Happy Holidays to you and yours from all of us in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We hope you were able to pick up some extra holiday spending money (I sure did for my kids) last week as went 4-2 ATS with wins on the Browns +10, Jaguars +3, Steelers +7 and Raiders +14 (all on Sunday) and losses on the Commanders +6.5 and Colts +6.5 on Thursday and Monday night. We also swept our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio recommendations as they went 7-0 on the Rams +7.5, Giants +9, Panthers +9, Chargers +8.5, Jaguars +9, Cardinals +8.5 and Patriots +9, so you would have won no matter how you mixed and matched those through the weekend (and thanks to those who sent congratulatory notes after their winning weekend).
But enough looking back (as that money’s already spent!). Let’s take a look at the full 16-game NFL schedule in Week 17, including three games on Thursday/Christmas Day and two more on Saturday.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each pro football matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
THURSDAY
Dallas (-8.5) at Washington
Tuley’s Take: A lot is being said about this weak Christmas Day slate (and not just in Circa Survivor terms) that keeps getting less and less attractive with the three home teams (Commanders, Vikings, Chiefs) all having disappointing seasons and the road teams all being favorites laying more than a touchdown. The advance line on this game was Cowboys -3 last week before the Commanders lost vs. the Eagles, and the Cowboys lost vs. the Chargers. It reopened Cowboys -3.5 on Sunday afternoon but quickly went up to -7 and has since flown up to -8.5 after the announcement that Washington QB Marcus Mariota is indeed out and Josh Johnson will be starting. I would normally fade such a line move, but I certainly wasn’t encouraged by how Johnson looked (5-for-9, just 43 yards) vs. Philly. Instead, let’s kick off the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio for Week 17 with the Cowboys -2.5 and tie it with the others in our “teaser zone” (moving through key numbers of 3 and 7): Lions -1.5 at Vikings also on Thursday, Texans +8 at Chargers on Saturday, Titans +8.5 vs. Saints, Bears +9.5 at 49ers on Sunday night and Rams -2.5 on Monday night. There are also some potential games to be added, which I’ll get to on a case-by-case basis below. As always, shop around for not only the best lines to tease but the lowest juice.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Cowboys -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in rare ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Detroit (-7.5) at Minnesota
Tuley’s Take: The Vikings (7-8) have been eliminated from playoff consideration, while the Lions are on life support, needing to win their last two games and also have the Packers lose their last two. With the way the Lions haven’t been able to “flip the switch” in several “must-win” spots this season, I wouldn’t advise anyone to lay the 7.5 with them, but I’m also not willing to take the points with the reeling Vikings turning again to undrafted rookie QB Max Brosmer with J.J. McCarthy out with a fractured hand. That’s why the Lions are also in the TTP.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Lions -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Denver (-13.5) at Kansas City
Tuley’s Take: With elimination from the playoffs and Patrick Mahomes out for the season, it looked like the Chiefs were going through the motions and playing out the string in their 26-9 loss to the lowly Titans. However, I expect a much better effort from Andy Reid & Co. despite having to go with Chris Oladukun (11-for-16, 111 yards after replacing an injured Gardner Minshew), who will at least have some reps with the first team even though it’s on a short week. But believe me, this is more of a play against the Broncos. Longtime “Tuley’s Takes” readers will also recognize this as an “anti-swagger” situation against the Broncos, who just had their 11-game winning streak snapped. The advance line for this game was Broncos -5.5 last week, with Minshew expected to still be starting and has since steamed to double digits. That’s too much in this spot in my humble opinion. Besides, the Broncos just want to win this game and stay healthy to meet their goals and don’t need to win by two TDs.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Chiefs +13.5 (pool play: Chiefs 67/33 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 80/20 in SU pools).
SATURDAY
Baltimore at Green Bay (-3)
Tuley’s Take: Both teams have playoff aspirations and still have work to do, as the loser of this game will be in serious jeopardy. Green Bay QB Jordan Love was knocked out of Sunday’s loss at the Bears but appears to be progressing through concussion protocol, so the point spread has stayed pretty solid at Packers -3 (I’m pretty sure it would be around pick-’em if oddsmakers felt it was more likely that Malik Willis would have to start). This is pretty much a toss-up, so I’ll sit out this one (though I might be tempted to add the Ravens to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as it should be a one-score game regardless, I just don’t see it as one of the stronger teaser options this weekend).
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass for now, possibly Ravens +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests, but Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Houston at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)
Tuley’s Take: This is actually the first Saturday game in the 4:30 p.m. ET/1:30 p.m. PT timeslot. The Texans are on a currently league-high seven-game winning streak and trying to still catch the Jaguars in the AFC South, while the Chargers are also hot as lightning with a 4-game win streak and chasing the Broncos in the AFC West. This should be full of playoff-type intensity, so it fits nicely in the TTP and I like it better than the Ravens-Chargers (though I will add that if my Cowboys -1.5/Texans +8 teaser is already dead from Christmas Day, I’ll definitely add a Saturday-only Texans +2/Ravens +9 teaser in addition to my plays from the Texans to Sunday’s games).
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Texans +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Arizona at Cincinnati (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: I didn’t like the Cardinals enough last week to be them +2.5 against the spread vs. the Falcons, but they came through for us by covering their 6-point teaser as they only lost 26-19. This week, we don’t have to tease them to get a number we like, as we’re getting more than a touchdown at Cincinnati. Granted, the Bengals looked great in their 45-21 rout of the Dolphins (remember it was the Dolphins) as Joe Burrow threw five TD passes. Also, don’t forget that was after getting shut out by the Ravens the week prior, so there’s no guarantee they show up again. The Cardinals ain’t much, but they still play the full 60 minutes and Jacoby Brissett is capable of getting the back-door cover again even if they’re not able to keep this close throughout.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Cardinals +7.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle (-7) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: Who had this Week 17 game as a battle of first-place teams on their 2026 Bingo Card? Yet, here we are with the Seahawks atop the NFC West (and holding the No. 1 seed and bye) after rallying to beat the Rams last Thursday and the Panthers taking the NFC South lead with their 23-20 upset of the Buccaneers on Sunday. The Panthers have been very good to us all year, so I’ll gladly take the touchdown head start at home (where they used the Rams two weeks before knocking off the Bucs).
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Panthers +7 (pool play: in SU pools).
New York Giants (-1) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: Both teams are 2-13, and the loser gets the inside track to the No. 1 draft pick. Of course, several teams have played themselves out of this position with recent wins (see Saints-Titans below), so it’s not surprising that this has been bouncing back and forth around pick-em all week. As of this writing on Wednesday, it’s not in the “teaser zone,” and I’m not interested in trying to predict which way it goes or to trust either team to keep it close. Plus, there are too many other compelling games I’d rather be watching.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Giants 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Pittsburgh (-3) at Cleveland
Tuley’s Take: The Browns came through for us Sunday, covering as 10-point home underdawgs in the Dawg Pound in their 23-20 loss to the Bills. I’m sure many readers will assume I’ll be backing the Browns again, but this line is too short for my liking. Heck, I felt the same way when it was +4.5 and +3.5 earlier in the week. I guess some people saw value in the dog, but I’m sitting out this one, too, especially since the Steelers dominated them 23-9 in the first meeting.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
New Orleans (-2.5) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: A few weeks ago, this looked like it could be the game to decide the No. 1 draft pick, but the Saints have won three in a row and the Titans have won two of three (Browns and a depleted, unmotivated Chiefs team). It doesn’t look like either team is tanking, so this should be a pretty even game between well-matched teams and also fits nicely in our TTP, even if I doubt I’ll be watching much of it.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Titans +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Titans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Saints 60/40 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay (-5.5) at Miami
Tuley’s Take: The Buccaneers obviously have more to play for as they try to rebound from losing the NFC South lead to the Panthers on Sunday, as they get a rematch in Week 18. It’s tempting to take the Dolphins as a home dog here, especially as everyone saw their 28-15 upset of the Steelers on Monday night in Week 15, but I’m not thrilled with Quinn Ewers taking over for Tua Tagovailoa, no matter how bad he’s played most of the year. Hard pass.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Jacksonville (-6.5) at Indianapolis
Tuley’s Take: The Jaguars are on a 6-game winning streak as they’ve passed the Texans and Colts in the AFC South and looking better every week. The Colts have lost five straight, including the last two with Philip Rivers, so we understand why the Jaguars are 6.5-point road favorites. However, we’ve all seen that Rivers has sparked the offense, and it wasn’t his fault that the defense (after playing great during most of the losing streak, keeping the Colts in the games before losing to the Chiefs, Texans and Seahawks) got run over by the 49ers on Monday night in their 48-27 loss. The other poor effort was the 36-19 loss at the Jaguars in Week 14, but that was the game they lost Daniel Jones in the second quarter. I expect a better effort from both sides of the ball this Sunday.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Colts +6.5 (pool play: Colts 60/40 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 67/33 in SU pools).
New England (-13.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: A double-digit divisional home underdog? There was a time when this would be an automatic play, but there are such things as dead dogs and I try to avoid them no matter how tempting. The Patriots are also rolling along after bouncing back from their loss to the Bills and I don’t want to get in front of that train, especially with a Jets team that isn’t sticking around in games like they were earlier in the season.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Patriots at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Philadelphia at Buffalo (pick ’em)
Tuley’s Take: The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles have been more inconsistent this season, but they still already clinched the NFC East and kind of don’t have anything to play for except for trying to get sharper for another playoff run. The Bills are still chasing the Patriots in the AFC East and need this game more, so I’m a little surprised this is at pick-’em. The Bills were short faves earlier in the week. I would love to take either team at +7.5 in teasers, but I’m not sure it’ll get there either way.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Pass for now, but possibly either team +7.5 or better in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in all SU and ATS pools).
Chicago at San Francisco (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Bears reclaimed the NFC North lead with their miracle 22-16 OT win over the Packers last Saturday, but the 49ers are also coming off an impressive 48-27 win at Indianapolis on Monday night. The advance line for this game was 49ers -2.5 and reopened at -3 but has since crossed the key number at several books to -3.5. When originally looking at this Sunday night battle, I marked the Bears as a teaser play, but if we’re able to get the hook, we’ll also take the points in what could very well come down to a late FG.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Bears +3.5 and Bears +9.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 67/33 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Los Angeles Rams (-8.5) at Atlanta
Tuley’s Take: The Rams lost the NFC West lead to the Seahawks, but they’re still playoff-bound. This line also continues to climb as it was Rams -7.5 on the advance line last week and has gone to -8 and now -8.5 as of this writing on Christmas Eve. The public obviously sees them as legit Super Bowl contenders and expects them to blow out the Falcons on the fast indoor track at Mercedes-Benz Stadium as 81% of the bets and 86% of the money is on the Rams at DraftKings, according to the VSiN Betting Splits Page. I’ll gladly fade the public move with the Falcons, who look like they could play spoiler with Kirk Cousins throwing three TD passes in each of his last two games as he sure looks like he’s auditioning for a job next season, whether it’s in Atlanta or elsewhere. However, let’s also shoot for a middle on Rams -2,5 with (hopefully) live teasers from games earlier in the weekend.
NFL Week 17 Best Bet: Falcons +8.5, plus also Rams -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
For more Week 17 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 17 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
