Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 18 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

Happy New Year to you and yours from the Tuley’s Takes home office. It’s hard to believe we’ve already reached NFL Week 18. While we ended 2024 on a winning note with our CFB bowl “dog or pass” best bets and started 2025 the same way, it wasn’t a good end of the year for yours truly in the NFL.

Favorites continued their crazy run by dominating 13-1 straight-up in Week 17 with two games closing pick-’em (and, let’s face it, the Vikings and Titans were favored most of the week vs. the Packers and Jaguars, so I wouldn’t doubt if you’ve seen chalk at 15-1 SU) and 13-1 against the spread. I went 1-5 ATS with my plays here with losses on the Broncos +3.5 at the Bengals, Jets +11 at the Bills, Panthers +8 at the Buccaneers, Cowboys +9.5 at the Eagles and Falcons +4 at the Commanders.

 

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I won’t claim to have been on the “right side” of most of those games, but I was the victim of bad beats with the Broncos and Falcons both going to overtime and both losing the covers with the Bengals and Commanders scoring touchdowns.  Our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” couldn’t even save us as we only went 1-2 with Packers +7.5 cashing but Steelers +8.5 and Colts -2 losing.

Hopefully, the turn of the calendar helps, though the last week of the NFL season is always a challenge as you have to factor in which teams are resting players for the playoffs, which are playing out the string, etc.

I’ll be passing some games where there’s more uncertainty, but there are still some spots where we feel we have live dogs, especially where the market overreacts and inflates the favorites (though with good reason, as the books are also trying to make chalk bettors pay a premium since they’ve had so much success lately).

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-20)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

This was flexed from Sunday to the afternoon slot on Saturday and gives us the biggest point spread of Week 18. These teams have obviously gone in opposite directions since the Browns upset the Ravens 29-24 in Week 8, but I still love getting points in a division rivalry where the winner of the first meeting is getting points. And this line is obviously overinflated with the Ravens wanting to clinch the AFC North title – plus bettors love that they haven’t taken their foot off the gas, winning three in a row by an average of 22.3 points per game. But I can’t pass on the only 20-point dog of the season, as clearly, the Ravens don’t have to win by margin – they just want to win and get onto the playoffs. Besides, I like Bailey Zappe starting for the Browns over Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Browns +20 (pool play: Browns 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens in 100% of SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Saturday. 8 p.m. ET

The Bengals need a win (and then losses by the Broncos and Dolphins on Sunday). The Steelers are already in the playoffs, so that’s why the Bengals are favored here (plus they are playing better than the Steelers lately). However, the Steelers won the first meeting in a 44-38 shootout. Even if the Ravens win earlier Saturday to clinch the AFC North, Pittsburgh should give its best effort to avoid heading into the postseason on a four-game losing streak. I don’t like them enough to take the short number, but I will tease them up through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +7.5 to kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.” I’ll use it with both the Patriots +8.5 vs. the Bills and the Vikings +8.5 or +9 at the Lions.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Steelers +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Buccaneers are in a win-and-in situation as they can clinch the NFC South with a victory, and that’s why this line is so high. But even though I can’t resist the Browns getting huge points in a similar spot, it’s easy to pass on the Saints, who are playing out the string with three straight losses (and a narrow win over the lowly Giants in the game before that) and didn’t show up as 14-point dogs in the Week 16 Monday night and couldn’t even get up for playing the Raiders last Sunday.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Bills are locked into the No. 2 seed and won’t play all their stars, so that’s why this line is so low though oddsmakers obviously think the Bills’ backups are still better than the Patriots’ starters. That may be true, but the Patriots have been competitive for the most part (despite a blowout loss to the Chargers last Saturday) and gave the Bills’ A-team all they could handle in a 24-21 loss just two weeks ago. We should see a similar effort here. I don’t like the Pats enough to bet ATS, but they’re actually my favorite leg of our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” with the Steelers +7.5 from Saturday and to the Vikings +8.5 on Sunday night.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Patriots +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests, but the Bills still 60/40 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The line seems way too high, considering the Packers are locked into the NFC’s No. 7 seed unless the Commanders lose to the Cowboys. It could happen, but I feel Matt LaFleur could pull his starters sooner rather than later. Regardless, the Bears occasionally show signs of competence despite their 10-game losing streak, including nearly upsetting these same Packers in a 20-19 loss in Week 11. They also covered on Thanksgiving against the Lions and last week in a 6-3 loss to the Seahawks, so I really expect this to be a one-score game.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Bears +10 (pool play: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still 70/30 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

Um, do I have to write anything on this game? Unless you have the Colts available in a Survivor/Last Man Standing type of contest, are in a rare fantasy league that uses Week 18 games, or are a die-hard fan of one of these teams, I can’t imagine too many people will be paying any attention to this matchup. Hard pass.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Falcons have lost control of their destiny as they need a win and a Buccaneers loss (as huge favorites over the Saints) to win the NFC South. The offense has looked better with Michael Penix Jr., especially in last week’s shootout loss to the Commanders after not being asked to do much in his debut, but I’ll back the Panthers again as they’ve been good to us (4-2 ATS when we’ve bet them this season) as Bryce Young keeps improving.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Panthers +8.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Falcons still 75/25 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders (-6.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’m kinda surprised the Commanders are favored here since they’ve locked into a wild-card spot and can only get as high as the No. 6 seed, but coach Dan Quinn said he’s playing to win as Dan Campbell did last Monday night. However, I’ve seen this movie before where one starter takes a hard hit or sprains an ankle, and the coach pulls everyone out of caution. So, the Cowboys are the play here. Besides, even if both go full strength, the Cowboys have won four of six, so they haven’t thrown in the towel and are still playing for their coach, Mike McCarthy. And don’t forget the Cowboys beat the Commanders 34-26 with Cooper Rush in Week 12, so there’s really not much of a talent gap here.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Cowboys +6.5 (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 65/35 in SU pools).

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Texans are locked into the AFC’s No. 4 seed and have nothing to gain. Coach DeMeco Ryans has said the starters will play, so I considered teasing them over a TD; however, they could pull all their starters at any time like the Commanders. Hard pass.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Titans 55/45 in SU and ATS contests).

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

The Giants pulled the biggest shocker of Week 17 (and, in fact, the lone outright upset) with their 45-33 win over the Colts as 7.5-point home underdogs. However, this number is too short for me to bet them, even though it’s basically their starters against the Eagles’ backups, including Saquon Barkley sitting out despite a shot at the single-season rushing record.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 60/40 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins (-1) at New York Jets

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Dolphins must win to keep their wild-card hopes alive, but this line isn’t higher because it appears Tyler Huntley will start in place of Tua Tagovailoa. After how the Jets couldn’t even come close to covering +11 at the Bills on Sunday in a 40-14 rout, I’m not counting on them to all of a sudden look to play spoiler (and you’ll note I’m not even interested in using them in teasers).

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This looks like Bizarro World with the Broncos being double-digit favorites over the Chiefs, but that’s Week 18 for you when the two-time defending champion Chiefs have nothing to play for after clinching a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. At the same time, the Broncos need to win to secure a wild-card spot. However, don’t forget that the Chiefs rested Patrick Mahomes and most of their starters in Week 18 last year and kept the Chargers from making the playoffs. I expect a similar effort from the Chiefs’ backups here and will take the overadjusted line.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Chiefs +10.5 (pool play: Chiefs 60/40 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 75/25 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This line isn’t higher only because the Chargers will be locked into the No. 6 seed (and more likely to rest starters) if the Steelers win on Saturday night. I’ll wait to see if the Steelers lose and this line rises to a touchdown (maybe more). Regardless, despite everyone in Vegas saying the Raiders should tank for a higher draft pick, the players have won two straight for coach Antonio Pierce (granted, those were against the Jaguars and Saints), so we’re still expecting them to play spoiler.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Raiders +4.5 or higher (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chargers 70/30 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This is an easy game to pass on the dog as the Rams have clinched the NFC West. Coach Sean McVay has already said they’re resting their starters in preparation for their wild-card game.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The 49ers have arguably had the most disappointing season of teams that were expected to be contenders but still have a lot of pride and a lot of talent (in fact, the offense averages 372.6 yards per game to rank No. 5 in the league and is the only one in the Top 10 eliminated from playoff contention), so I’ll take them to try to close on a winning note, even with Josh Dobbs stepping in for Brock Purdy as he’s done this super-sub routine before. Plus, even though the Cardinals came through for me as 6-point dogs in their 13-9 loss at the Rams last Saturday, they’re still just as inconsistent as the 49ers, and I have no problem fading them as chalk.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: 49ers +4.5 (pool play: 49ers 60/40 in ATS contests, but the Cardinals still 60/40 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

The traditional Sunday night regular-season finale gives us a winner-take-all game between these two 14-2 teams for the NFC North title, No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. Great arguments can be made for either side, but from what we saw in the Lions’ 31-29 thrilling victory in the first meeting, this should also come down to the final possession in a one-score game. We’ll use it to anchor our 2-team, 6-point teasers with the Steelers +8.5 and Patriots +8.5. If you miss the earlier legs (or God forbid I’m not alive with at least one of them), I’d recommend Vikings +8.5/Under 62.

NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Vikings +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests, but Lions still 60/40 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 18 best bets, visit the NFL Week 18 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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