Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 18 Picks:
Happy New Year to you and your family from the Tuley’s Takes home office. We hope you’re enjoying the holiday season as well as the end of the NFL regular season.
We had a rollercoaster Week 17 at 3-3 ATS with our Best Bets here as we started with a nice win on the Chiefs +13.5 in their 20-13 home loss to the Broncos on Christmas Night, then lost with the Cardinals +7.5 at Bengals and the Panthers +7 vs. Seahawks in Sunday’s early games while winning with the Colts +6.5 in their 23-17 home loss to the Jaguars (though I know anyone waiting until the weekend probably only got +4 and a loss, so I hope most grabbed it early or just played the +6.5 in contests). At least we ended Week 17 with a right-side winner on the Falcons +8 in their 27-24 home upset of the Rams on Monday Night Football.
We also did OK with our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as our recommended legs went 5-2 with wins on the Cowboys -2.5 (again, had to grab that early), Ravens +9, Texans +8, Titans +8.5 and Bears +9.5 while also saying we would add the dog in the Eagles-Bills game if the line got to -1.5 and we could take a team getting more than a TD and we got that with the Eagles +7.5 on gameday. The losses were on the Lions -1.5 and Rams -2.5 (as we were trying to hit a middle with our Falcons +8 bet, but that came up short).
But enough looking back. Let’s take a look at the full 16-game NFL schedule in Week 18 with two games on Saturday (Panthers-Buccaneers and Seahawks-49ers to determine the NFC South and West winners as well as the NFC’s No. 1 seed) and the remaining 14 on Sunday.
We usually do these in rotation order, but I’ll put them in chronological order as the league groups games based on playoff scenarios, including moving the Ravens-Steelers game (which was No. 8 in the original rotation) to the Sunday Night Football game to determine the AFC North division champ and the last playoff berth. Per usual in Week 18,, we have some wonky lines with teams unable to improve their playoff position and others playing out the string, so we have to treat Week 18 differently.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each pro football matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
SATURDAY
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: This game was moved to Saturday as it looked like it was going to be a winner-take-all game for the NFC South title and the last NFC playoff spot. However, while the Panthers can clinch the division with a win, the Buccaneers could still be denied the division title if the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday. Regardless, both teams will be playing to win, and the Panthers would certainly prefer not to back into the postseason with a loss and an 8-9 record.
Regular readers also know I like teams that won the first meeting head-to-head and are now getting points as the underdog in the rematch – and the Panthers just beat the Bucs 23-20 two weeks ago. In addition, the Bucs have lost four straight, so they’ve already shown an inability to “flip the switch” in “must-win spots.” But the line is too short for me (it was even at +3), so this is the perfect spot in what should be another one-score game to start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to cross the key numbers of 3 and 7 to get the Panthers +8.5. I’ll use them with the other Week 18 games in what we call “the teaser zone,” starting with the other Saturday game with the 49ers +7.5 vs. the Seahawks and then the Sunday games with Vikings -1.5 vs. Packers, Lions +9 at Bears and Rams -1 vs. the Cardinals.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Panthers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle (-1.5) at San Francisco
Tuley’s Take: I already gave a spoiler above on this game as we’re teasing the 49ers up to +7.5. The reasons should be obvious as these teams are obviously evenly matched with the line around pick-’em (in fact, it was exactly PK at some books Sunday night). The 49ers did win the first meeting, which again we like, plus it was another one-score game at 17-13 all the way back in Week 1. This should be a battle to the finish with so much on the line, as only one can get the NFC’s No. 1 seed and first-round bye.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: 49ers +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
SUNDAY
Green Bay at Minnesota (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Packers’ loss at the Ravens last Saturday kept them from being able to catch the Bears in the NFC North, and they’re locked into the No. 7 seed and have nothing to play for here, which is why the Vikings are such big favorites. Early in the week, the status of Minnesota starting QB J.J. McCarthy was uncertain, so we might get rookie Max Brosmer. I’m not thrilled with that prospect, but the Vikings still look like the play with the Packers, who were unmotivated and just wanted to get out of this game healthy and start the playoffs.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Vikings -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teaser (pool play: in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Houston (-10.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Philip Rivers comeback was a feel-good story the past few weeks, but the Colts went 0-3 anyway and have been eliminated from the playoffs. The Texans’ No. 1 defense has contained some of the best QBs in the league. I don’t expect them to get lit up by Riley Leonard in his first start. This is a big, overly inflated line for the Texans to cover with an inconsistent offense (and the other argument to take the dog is that the Texans could pull starters if the Jaguars pull away from the Titans to clinch the AFC South, but I still have to pass.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Texans at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Cincinnati (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: All the talk about this game (which doesn’t deserve much) has been about how Joe Flacco started the season for the Browns against the Bengals in Week 1 and is now starting for the Bengals in Week 18. That’s a cute tidbit, but it doesn’t make sense to me that Cincinnati is favored by more than a touchdown. The Browns covered as 5-point home underdogs in the 17-16 Week 1 loss and are playing better now with Shedeur Sanders improving and a still-solid defense keeping them in the game against the Bills in Week 16 before losing 23-20 but covering as 10.5-point dogs and then upsetting the Steelers 13-6 as 4-point home dogs in Week 17.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Browns +7.5 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
Dallas (-3.5) at New York Giants
Tuley’s Take: If the Giants had lost to the Raiders on Sunday, this game could have been for them to clinch the No. 1 draft pick. Instead, they rolled to a 34-10 victory. Jaxson Dart certainly hasn’t been tanking as he vowed to try to end the season on a winning note. Regular readers will recognize this as a classic “swagger spot” after ending their skid and getting their swagger back. I understand why the Cowboys are road favorites, but they opened -5, and it’s down to 3.5 as of Wednesday’s deadline. I believe the money is on the right side. I’ll gladly take the Giants at anything more than a field goal.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Giants +3.5 (pool play: Giants 67/33 in ATS contests, but Cowboys still 67/33 in SU pools, which means if they were to play this game three times, the Cowboys would win two but fail to cover -3.5 in one of them).
New Orleans at Atlanta (-3/-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The NFL schedulemakers tried as usual to wait until after the Week 17 Sunday nighter to announce the starting times for Week 18 to guarantee teams involved in playoff positioning would play at the same time. However, it’s funny that they must have still assumed the Rams were going to beat the Falcons, as they didn’t put this game at the same time as the Panthers-Bucs). The Falcons looked much better in their upset of the Rams and have gone from a 2.5-point favorite to -3.5 at some books (for newbies, the -3/-3.5 in the header means books are split between those two numbers and usually charging higher vig of -120 on the side you want to bet). With the Saints on a four-game winning streak (albeit against the Bucs, Panthers, Saints and Titans), it’s tempting to take them getting the hook, but I’m gonna pass with all the uncertainty of the NFC South, plus the Falcons beat them 24-10 in the first meeting in New Orleans and now play at home.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Jacksonville (-12.5)
Tuley’s Take: Even though they fell short against the Saints last week as they were unable to carry the momentum from their Week 16 upset of the shorthanded Chiefs, I haven’t been able to pull the trigger on the Titans here as double-digit dogs. The Jaguars are, of course, needing to win to hold off the Texans in the AFC South and get a home wild-card round game, and that’s why this line is inflated so much. It comes down to liking other dogs this week, and if I want to add another that is just as likely to get blown out. Pass for now, and we’ll see if the line continues to steam higher by the weekend.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass, or possibly Titans +12.5 or higher (pool play: in SU pools).
Miami at New England (-10.5)
Tuley’s Take: The one dog I regret not taking in Week 17 was the Dolphins +5.5, as I didn’t think rookie QB Quinn Ewers could get his first win against the Buccaneers after losing his debut to the Bengals. Instead, the Fish were a live dog, and I missed it. I’m not passing this time as they’re getting double digits against a division rival. The Patriots have already clinched the AFC East but are still hoping to get the No. 1 seed if they can win and the Broncos lose to the unmotivated Chargers. I believe the Dolphins can stay within one score (and they only lost 33-27 to the Pats in Week 2), regardless, but there’s also the chance New England could pull starters if Denver is winning.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Dolphins +10.5 (pool play: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 75/25 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-5.5) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: By virtue of their loss to the Giants on Sunday, the Raiders can clinch the No. 1 draft pick by losing this upcoming Sunday to the Chiefs, so I’m not interested in taking the points with them here. Even if I thought this line was too high with third-string QB Chris Oladokun (though he didn’t play terribly in the Chiefs’ 20-13 loss to the Broncos on Christmas Night), I wouldn’t be looking to trust the Raiders with Maxx Crosby on IR and either Kenny Pickett or Aidan O’Connell starting at QB. This team is in full tank mode.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Detroit at Chicago (-3)
Tuley’s Take: The Bears came up short of beating the 49ers, 42-38, on Sunday night and also their shot at earning the NFC’s No. 1 seed. But they still clinched the NFC North with the Packers’ loss to the Ravens on Saturday and can still be the No. 2 seed with a win here or a loss by the Eagles. The Lions have had an extremely disappointing season, but I fully expect them to try and play spoiler here and there are many who still regard them as the better overall team, and I’m sure they want to prove that. I know it was before the Bears got hot and the Lions’ season fell apart, but don’t forget the Lions routed the Bears 52-21 way back in Week 2.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Lions +3, plus Lions +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Buffalo (-7)
Tuley’s Take: The Jets have suffered four straight blowout losses to the Dolphins, Jaguars, Saints and Patriots since their upset of the Falcons in Week 13, so I’m not compelled to back them here. I almost included the Bills -1 in our recommended teasers, but I’m leaning toward not adding them even later, with them falling short of catching the Patriots in the AFC East and not having much to play for seeding-wise.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Washington at Philadelphia (-4)
Tuley’s Take: This line opened as high as Eagles -12.5 on Sunday and was quickly adjusted down to -7 and now is down to -4. That tells you all you need to know about the Eagles’ motivation in this game, as they’re guaranteed of no worse than the No. 3 seed in the NFC and can only get to No. 2 with a win if the Bears lose to the Lions. Coach Nick Sirianni announced Wednesday that they’re resting several starters, and there’s also the possibility they could be scoreboard watching and pull more starters if the Bears are winning. Regardless, I can’t take this short of a number with the Commanders.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Arizona at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Tuley’s Take: As you all know, I try to make a case for the underdog, and getting a TD in a divisional rivalry is usually a good start; however, it’s hard to back the Cardinals, who have suffered eight losses in a row and four by blowout. The Rams are also still playing for the No. 5 seed (assuming the Seahawks beat the 49ers on Saturday), so they can play wild-card weekend at the winner of the NFC South, Carolina or Tampa Bay. That’s enough to convince me to include them in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as their starters should be playing long enough to secure the win here, regardless.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Rams -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and 90/10 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver (-12.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Chargers ruined their chance to make this game more meaningful for them with a shot at the AFC West title as they lost 20-16 vs. the Texans last Saturday. Meanwhile, the Broncos were handed the division crown but still need to win here to clinch the No. 1 seed and first-round bye. We sometimes see Week 18 teams with nothing really to play for and should be resting their starters to try to stay fresh for the playoffs and pull upsets, but I’m not feeling comfortable even with the overly inflated line. Hard pass.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Baltimore (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
Tuley’s Take: This winner-take-all game for the AFC North was moved to the season-ending Sunday nighter after the Steelers failed to clinch the division on Sunday in their 13-6 home loss vs. the Browns. The Ravens have bounced back from a 1-5 start to get in this spot to still win the AFC North and make the playoffs. They are expected to get QB Lamar Jackson back, though they didn’t need him in upsetting the Packers last Saturday night behind Tyler Huntley and, of course, RB Derrick Henry. But the best way to bet this rivalry for the longest time has been to take the dog getting a FG, and we’re even getting the hook with Jackson back. Again, I also love that the Steelers won the first meeting, 27-22 (on the road, mind you), and Jackson also played the complete game, so the Steelers clearly look like the right side here.
NFL Week 18 Best Bet: Steelers +3.5 (pool play: Steelers 67/33 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools, which again means if they were to play this game three times, the Ravens would win two but fail to cover -3.5 in one of them).
For more Week 18 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 18 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
