Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 2:
NFL Week 1 is in the books, and it was an exciting and profitable one here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we love us some pro football betting.
Our Best Bets started awesome right out of the gate with the Cowboys +8 covering in a 24-20 loss at the Eagles in the traditional Thursday night opener and the Chargers +3 upsetting the Chiefs 27-21 on Friday night in Brazil. Unfortunately, just like how dog-heaven September turned to chalky October last year, the favorites took over early Sunday and we went 1-2 ATS with a win on the Browns +5 in a 17-16 home loss vs. the Bengals and losses on the Dolphins pick ’em (ouch in 33-8 loss at the Colts) and Panthers +3.5 (26-10 loss at Jaguars).
For the record, I had favorites finishing 11-3 straight-up in Week 1 with two games closing pick ’em (Buccaneers-Falcons and Vikings-Bears), but ended up splitting 7-7 against the spread. Home teams led 8-7 SU and 9-6 ATS (60%) with one neutral-site game (Chiefs-Chargers in Brazil). Unders dominated 12-4 (75%) despite the Sunday and Monday night games going Over.
Based on all that, we’ll gladly take 3-2 ATS (60%) with our Week 1 Best Bets any year.
But where we really made money was with our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as our recommended legs for 2-team, 6-point teasers went 8-1 on the weekend, starting with the Eagles -2/Chargers +9 in the Thursday/Friday games and the only losers being on teasers using the Lions +8.5 at the Packers.
And except for the Raiders upsetting the Patriots outright, the rest of the teaser legs – Jets +8.5; Falcons +8.5, though that one disappeared later when the spread moved to pick ’em; Broncos -2; Seahawks +8; Texans +8.5; and Bears +7.5 all needed the bonus points as they all failed to cover the game spread. And that list doesn’t even include the Sunday nighter as I wrote “if the line continues to move and it gets to Ravens -1.5 (back into the “teaser zone” as we can get over a TD at Bills +7.5 with a 6-point teaser), I might add it to the portfolio,” so hopefully some readers were also able to add that as well.
So, onto Week 2, though unfortunately, we have just three point spreads solidly within the teaser zone as of this writing on Wednesday morning. I’m sure you’ve already heard someone on VSiN say not to overreact to what we saw in Week 1, and I’m sure you’ll hear it more this week.
Per usual, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup (full 16-game card for Week 2, some weeks will be fewer games with byes) and will be from the point of view of trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “pool play” strategy for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Washington at Green Bay (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: If you heard me on VSiN’s “Live Bet Sunday” with Scott Seidenberg at 9:30 p.m. ET/6:30 p.m. PT, I gave out the Commanders at +4 in the Thursday Night Football game. I had just bet them at +4.5 at Circa before the show, but that number was gone. The advance line on this game was Packers -3. While their 26-10 win over the Lions was impressive, I feel the adjustment is a bit of an overreaction that we’re willing to fade with a solid Commanders team that should be able to match the Packers score for score. I figured the line would continue to drop and even said, “I still think there’s value at anything over a field goal,” so I hope most readers will still be able to get the hook at +3.5, as a few books have already started moving to 3.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Commanders +3.5 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
New England at Miami (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: There were two of the ugliest teams in Week 1, with the Dolphins getting blown out by the Colts and the Patriots losing at home to the Raiders. Many sites have the Dolphins as the worst team in the NFL. I’m not totally throwing them under the bus after one game, but also not willing to take the Patriots to win outright or with the small spread. Instead, we’ll start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio by moving them to +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (shop around for the lowest juice you can find) and use the Patriots with the Colts +7.5 vs. the Broncos and Buccaneers +8.5 at the Texans.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Patriots +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests but Dolphins still 60/40 in SU pools).
Jacksonville at Cincinnati (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Bengals -5.5, but they again got off to a slow start and struggled to beat the Browns 17-16 (scaring Circa Survivor entrants and other survivor entrants again just like last year) while the Jaguars had a convincing 26-10 win over the Panthers, so this line has dipped to 3.5. But I still like the dog at this price, as we believe it’s still the right side. We saw last year that the Bengals took a while to get going once again under Zac Taylor, so we expect them to continue to let lesser teams stick around. Besides, the Jaguars could be sneaky good and seem more focused on having former Clemson teammates Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne Jr. after trading Tank Bigsby to the Eagles (fantasy owners know this is good news for Etienne).
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Baltimore (-11.5)
Tuley’s Take: We get our first double-digit underdog of the season already, though these aren’t the automatic plays for me that they used to be. We were happy to cash with the Browns against the Bengals, but they really should have won the game. Granted, I’ll agree with you that the fact the Browns’ cover was more due to the Bengals’ early ineptitude, but if they were able to let the Browns stick around, can’t we expect the same from the Ravens, who despite another great performance by Lamar Jackson, allowed an all-too-often comeback in the shocking 41-40 loss on Sunday night? Joe Flacco is no Josh Allen, but we just need him to manage the game and keep this within a TD and a FG.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Browns +11.5 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Ravens at least 80/20 in SU pools).
New York Giants at Dallas (-6)
Tuley’s Take: One of the biggest surprises for me in Week 1 was the Giants +6 at the Commanders being the most-selected team in both the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest (and the Top 5 plays in both contests went 0-5). Russell Wilson’s performance in the 21-6 led to Giants fans calling for Jaxson Dart, but coach Brian Daboll has given the dreaded vote of confidence to Wilson. I didn’t see enough from the G-men in the opener to take them with the points here against a Dallas team that played better than expected and nearly beat the Eagles in the opener.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and closer to 75/25 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: I’m still trying to figure out how to grade Cam Ward’s debut in the Titans’ 20-12 loss at Denver. I saw some good things, but ultimately, he was just 12-for-28 for 112 yards and failed to get the offense into the end zone. He did get the cover at +8.5, so I wish this game was on the road as we’d be getting more than a TD again. The line is just too short for me to get on the Titans as a home underdog.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Rams 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Buffalo (-6.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: I saw the advance line on this game as high as Bills -8.5, but then we all saw how well the Jets played (at least offensively) in their 34-32 loss vs. the Steelers. It reopened Bills -7.5 on Sunday afternoon and has continued to drop even after the Bills’ rally on Sunday night. I can’t fade the Bills at Jets +6.5 without at least a full touchdown (and PAT). I would say let’s wait for the line to reverse, but I’m not sure how likely that is as the VSiN Betting Splits Page has 61% of the bets at Circa and a whopping 97% of the handle on the Jets +6.5 as of late Wednesday morning.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but not enough for me to make a Best Bet, while Bills still 75/25 in SU pools).
Chicago at Detroit (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: Both teams lost their openers. It could be argued the Bears actually looked better with former Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, but again, this is still too few points for me to take the dog. The Lions are going to be all right; they just ran into a buzzsaw in the opener as the Packers dominated on both sides of the ball. Like this Cowboys earlier, this would be a case where some of my longtime chalk-playing readers will see me passing as a tacit “buy sign” to lay the points with the favorite.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-3)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Steelers -2.5, so it’s not too surprising to see it go to 3 after the Steelers’ 34-32 win at the Jets and the Seahawks’ 17-13 home loss vs. the 49ers. I’m tempted to fade the move, but not thrilled about laying the added juice. The move to 3 also moves it out of the teaser zone as you’re paying extra to get to +9 that you don’t really need, plus the unsaid reason why teasing +2.5 dogs to +8.5 is more successful than going from +3 to +9 is that if books are at -2.5 instead of -3 that means the favorite isn’t as strong.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contest and 70/30 in SU pools).
San Francisco (-3) at New Orleans
Tuley’s Take: We’ve seen this line go from 49ers -7 down to 4.5 with the reports that San Fran QB Brock Purdy is dealing with shoulder and toe injuries and listed as questionable (maybe closer to doubtful). After watching Spencer Rattler not show any improvement from what we saw last year, I’m not sure I would have taken Saints +7 anyway, but certainly not at this reduced line even if Mac Jones starts (which, frankly, I don’t see as a 2.5-point downgrade from Purdy anyway). Added late note: after writing the above earlier, the line has dipped to 49ers -3 as Purdy is looking like even more of a long shot to play, so all my above comments stand.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
Carolina at Arizona (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Cardinals -4.5. The Panthers lost convincingly, 26-10, at the Jaguars, but I’m still surprised this line has risen so much, as the Cardinals didn’t dominate the lowly Saints (actually outgained 315-276 in yards) and had to hold on for a 20-13 victory. It opened as high as 7 at some books, but those quickly disappeared. Even though I lost with Carolina in Week 1, I’m still high on them as least as far as covering as underdogs this season, but I have to pass at 6.5 (however, I will say that I might add the Panthers to one of my Circa or Westgate entries if they use 7 for their ATS contest lines, especially if I don’t get the line I want with one of my other Best Bets).
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass for now, possibly take Panthers if get back to +7 (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +7, but Cardinals 75/25 in SU pools).
Denver (-1.5) at Indianapolis
Tuley’s Take: In addition to giving the Commanders as a Week 2 play on VSiN’s “Live Bet Sunday,” I mentioned that I was hoping to get the Colts as 3-point home dogs vs. the Broncos. Unfortunately, the line was only +2.5 when we were on the air. I even said then that I would probably just use the Colts in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. I feel the same way now mid-week, as the line settled at 2 before dipping to 1.5 at deadline Wednesday afternoon. The Colts, with Daniel Jones taking over at QB, were better than expected in their 33-8 rout of the Dolphins, while the Broncos gave Circa Survivor players a scare (they were the No. 1 choice with more than 7,000 entries on them) before holding off the lowly Titans. If Tennessee can stay within one score of Denver, so can Indy. As stated earlier, the best teams to use the Colts +7.5 in 2-teamers would be the Patriots +7.5 at the Dolphins in an early Sunday game and the Buccaneers +8.5 at the Texans on Monday night.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Colts +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 60/40 in SU pools).
Philadelphia (-1) at Kansas City
Tuley’s Take: It’s a shame we don’t get this Super Bowl rematch as a prime-time standalone game, but it is the marquee Sunday afternoon game (and lone 1:25 p.m. PT start). The Chiefs are always tempting as a home dog with Patrick Mahomes, but revenge aside (which is not a huge handicapping factor for me), it’s hard to ignore how much the Eagles throttled the Chiefs in February. I feel the same way about this game that I felt about Ravens-Bills last Sunday night, where I can’t take the short line in a coin-flip game, but will jump in with a few teasers if the line goes to the favorite -1.5.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass unless adding Chiefs +7.5 to 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).
Atlanta at Minnesota (-4)
Tuley’s Take: I missed the +4.5 earlier this week, but the Falcons are still playable for me at +4 in a battle of second-year QBs with Michael Penix Jr. vs. J.J. McCarthy. I see Penix having more upside, so I’ll take him in this potential Sunday night shootout. McCarthy struggled in his first start against the Bears on Monday night before rallying for the 27-24 victory. I expect the Falcons to be right there just like they were in their 23-20 loss to the Buccaneers. Both their openers were decided by just a field goal. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the exact thing happen on Sunday night.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Falcons +4 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 67/33 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Tampa Bay at Houston (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: I cashed with the Texans with some teasers last week, but was disappointed with the 14-9 loss at the Rams as I was hoping for a better start with my Over 9.5 Wins, to win the AFC South and longshot Super Bowl bets. Obviously, I’m still hoping they win their home opener, but I’m not so sure the better team is favored, as the Bucs would clearly be favored if this was in Tampa and probably also if on a neutral field. Again, I’m not willing to take the short price on the dog, but teasing over a touchdown is a prime anchor for my 2-teamers (plus on Monday, we’ll be looking ahead for games to use in Week 3).
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Buccaneers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans 60/40 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: I know it was only against the Patriots, but the Raiders were one of the Week 1 surprises. Obviously, it wasn’t as impressive as the Chargers upsetting the Chiefs 27-21 in Brazil, but the Raiders’ offense (Geno Smith threw for 362 yards and we expect more from rookie Ashton Jeanty) and ability to pressure the QB (four sacks in opener) should be able to keep them in this Monday nighter. As of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, some books were charging -120 for the Raiders +3.5. We’re hopeful the public lands more on the favorite as the weekend approaches, and by gameday, we get +4, but comfortable taking anything over a field goal with the home divisional underdog.
NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Raiders +3.5 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chargers 65/35 in SU pools).
For more Week 2 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 2 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
