Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 2 Best Bets:

We survived NFL Week 1 here in the Tuley’s Takes home office,  and we’re not just talking about Circa Survivor. How did you do? With all the uncertainty of pro football teams taking the field for a full game for the first time (since preseason doesn’t really mean anything except for players trying to make the cut), there’s always the fear that all our hard work during the offseason will be for naught in Week 1. We’ve had some epic opening weeks, but usually, we’re just happy to break even and use whatever we learned to move forward to our NFL Week 2 best bets.

I went 2-3 ATS with my best bets here (and in the Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest), starting with wins on the Jaguars +3.5, in their 20-17 loss at the Dolphins, and Patriots +9 in their 16-10 outright upset at the Bengals. But then, I  lost with the Titans +4 in their 24-17 loss at the Bears (a Bad Beat as they led 17-0), the Rams +3.5 in their 26-20 loss at the Lions (I don’t want to talk about it) and the Jets +4 in their 32-19 loss at the 49ers (I’ll own that one, though kicking myself since it became such a public dog when I much prefer to be contrarian) with my “dog-or-pass plays.”

 

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But I still consider it a winning Week 1 overall as we avoided using the Bengals in Circa Survivor and other “last man standing” contests, plus our “Tuley Teaser Portfolio” did great starting with the Ravens +8.5 in the annual Thursday night opener at the Chiefs and the Packers +8.5 in the Friday night debut in Brazil vs. the Eagles. We also included the Colts +8.5 and Cowboys +8.5 on Sunday, with the only loss coming on the Bengals -2.5 (and if you know me, I play less on the chalky teaser combos).

So, all in all, it was a successful Week 1 despite favorites going 12-3 straight-up (with Vikings-Giants closing pick-’em) and 8-7-1 against the spread, using my @ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines that I tweet out. For the record, home teams led 10-5 SU and 9-6 ATS, not counting the neutral-site Brazil game, while Over/Unders split 8-8.

Let’s move on to Week 2 and the annual rite of passage in calling it “overreaction week,” which Bill Adee already did in the VSiN newsletter (I assume everyone reading this also receives that must-read email every morning). I’m sure you’ll hear that at least a dozen times on VSiN shows the rest of the week, as it’s easy to get caught up in what we just saw, but you need to remember, as always, that teams are never as good as they look when they win and never as terrible as they look when they lose. It’s our job to find value in the lines where the oddsmakers and betting public have overreacted. We call the NFL the “No Form League” for good reason!

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes columns, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legitimate option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Without further ado, let’s get to our takes on NFL Week 2.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-2.5)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (AMAZON)

The Dolphins got off to a slow start vs. the Jaguars (some point to the Tyreek Hill traffic stop as a distraction), but they pulled out the 20-17 victory, though they didn’t cover as 3.5-point home favorites. The Bills had a bigger scare (especially for those of us using them in Survivor and fearing we would also be eliminated despite passing on the Bengals). They also won but didn’t cover in their 34-28 win over the Cardinals as 6.5-point home chalk.

So, both teams underperformed, though I’m reluctant to say they were looking ahead to this game. Still, the line reopened around the -2 advance line, and there are plenty of books at 2.5 as of this writing on Wednesday morning. Just like last week, we’ll start our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” on Thursday night with the Bills +8.5 and use it as the first leg of 2-team, 6-point teasers with Sunday options on the Giants +7.5 at the Commanders and Rams +7.5 at Cardinals. Tuley Noted: As of this writing, there are no favorites in the “teaser zone” of -7.5 to -8.5 to tease down through both the key numbers of 7 and 3, as the Ravens are a consensus -9.5 and the Lions are -7.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Bills +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in my rare ATS contests that use the TNF game and 67/33 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line on this game was Ravens -8 before they lost the opener at the Chiefs. The Raiders looked pathetic in their 22-10 loss at the Chargers. As regular readers know, I’m not above taking ugly dogs (and, in fact, reveling in the reputation), but here’s the proof that I don’t take every dog or even every big dog. If anything, I don’t think this line has been adjusted enough, as the Ravens have extra rest and one of the game’s best coaches in John Harbaugh to get back on track. I would need double digits to consider taking the Raiders – and doubt I’ll even pull the trigger if it gets there.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests and 90/10 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

If the Raiders would be a “plug your nose” play, what should we call the Panthers? They looked even worse in their 28-6 loss at the Saints, but even though the Chargers are down and benefited from the Raiders’ woeful performance (my VSiN colleagues Gill Alexander and Kelley Bydlon discussed this game ad nauseam on their guessing the line and Survivor segments on Monday’s A Numbers Game), it’s hard to see value on the Panthers at less than a touchdown..

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The advance line for this game was Cowboys -6.5 and the needle didn’t move after the Saints marched over the lowly Panthers and the Cowboys’ 33-17 upset of the Browns. I’m not as down on the Cowboys as a lot of people as I tabbed them as one of my value plays (along with the Texans) to win the Super Bowl at 20-1 back in February, so I wasn’t surprised by the Cowboys’ win. If anything, I think this line is short, so I can’t take the Saints here, especially since we’re not putting too much stock in a rout of the Panthers.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-7)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

It took a while on the betting board, but we have our first overadjustment here (though it is slight). The advance line was Lions -6.5 before the Bucs handled the Commanders 37-20 and the Lions struggled as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Rams on Sunday night. They escaped with a 26-20 overtime win and only covered because of the rule that says the team receiving the opening kickoff of OT needs to score a TD to end the game. Now, I’m not saying the line should have been lowered off those results, but the move to the key number of 7 makes my bucks stop here on the underdog Bucs.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Buccaneers +7 (pool play: Buccaneers 65/35 in ATS contests, higher at 7.5 and lower at 6.5, but Lions still 67/33 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Green Bay Packers

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The news here is that Jordan Love was injured late in last Friday’s loss to the Eagles in Brazil. The advance line was Packers -5 and has flipped to the Colts by a field goal (I wish I had grabbed Packers +3.5 -115 at BetMGM. Anyway, while some will argue the adjustment is warranted with the change from Love to Malik Willis, I’m not so sure and will take the Pack as a 3-point underdog in the home opener at Lambeau Field. Besides, there are some rumblings that Love might be able to play, so bet this ASAP if you believe that’s possible, though the quandary is that it might pay to wait if the line rises even more if/when officially declared out. I can only go with the info I have now, but you can continue to monitor the situation for your own wager or contest plays.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Packers +3 (pool play: Packers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Colts still 55/45 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3/-3.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

OK, now we’re rolling with the (hopefully) live underdog plays. We all know the Browns, and especially QB Deshaun Watson, are getting ripped (for good reason) for their lackluster 33-17 loss vs. the Cowboys. However, the advance line for this game was Jaguars -2 and has hit the key number of 3 with some books going to 3.5, which we would love to take. Even so (since +3.5 -120 is the going rate at those few books as of Wednesday), we’ll take the “not as bad as they looked” Browns plus the field goal.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Browns +3 or higher (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contest, higher at +3.5, but Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).

San Francisco 49ers (-6) at Minnesota Vikings

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

I fully expect regular readers to assume I’ll be on the Vikings as home underdogs, but sorry (not sorry) to disappoint, though I feel passing is the right call. The advance line was 49ers -7.5, so even though the Vikings looked better than expected in their 28-6 rout of the Giants, it was still against the Giants and shouldn’t warrant this line dropping below a touchdown. Besides, the 49ers beat the Jets 32-19, easily covering as 4-point home chalk, on Monday Night Football and that was without Christian McCaffrey, so I don’t see why they should be laying fewer points.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) at New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Most of the time, even though I don’t agree with the line adjustments, I totally understand them. But here’s one that has me a little baffled as the Seahawks were -3 on the advance line last week, while they pushed in their 26-20 win vs. the Broncos after closing as 6-point home favorites, the Patriots (predicted by many to be the worst team in the league) pulled the upset of the week in their 16-10 win at the Bengals as 7.5-point road underdogs, so I expected this line would dip. That almost has me on the Pats plus more than a field goal, but the fact remains I like several other dogs better this week and not expecting them to repeat that performance.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Seahawks 65/35 in SU pools).

New York Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Case in point, I like this home underdog better, even though the advance line was Jets -4, and it has dipped to 3.5. The Titans outplayed the Bears and deserved a better fate than their 24-17 non-covering loss, especially as the Bears needed a special teams TD on a blocked punt and a pick-six to pull out the victory and unlikely cover. Barring similar ST snafus, the Titans should be right there with an overvalued Jets team (I bought into the hype myself, though now I’m wondering if I’m guilty of a knee-jerk overreaction LOL). Having said that, I still like the home dog here.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Titans +3.5 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Jets still 60/40 in SU pools).

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-1.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Talk about an ugly game. As pathetic as the Giants looked in their 28-6 home loss vs. the Vikings, this line has actually come down from the Commanders -2.5 on the advance line last week (and as high as -3 on Sunday/Monday) to just -1.5. I’m not as high on Washington rookie QB Jayden Daniels (though he did rush for 88 yards and two TDs in the loss at Tampa) as other people, but I’ll just use the Giants in teasers in what should be a one-score game instead of calling for the outright upset.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Giants +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals (-1.5)

4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

OK, here’s another puzzling line for yours truly, Dave Tuley. The Rams were -2 on the advance line last week and nearly knocked off the Lions on Sunday Night Football before losing in OT. Meanwhile, the Cardinals nearly upset the Bills before covering in a 34-28 loss as 6.5-point road dogs, yet the line has flipped to the Cardinals being favored. The Rams failing to hold on for the upset and even the cover has me a little gun-shy about betting them ATS as we’re basically needing the SU win, so this gets added to the “Tuley Teaser Portfolio” getting more than a TD.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Rams +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is clearly the marquee game of Sunday afternoon (yes, those with a East Coast bias, I know the “early games” are afternoon for you, too, but I’m still giving the ViewFromVegas LOL. It’s also one of the bigger overadjustments in my humble opinion as the advance line was -3.5 and it’s up to -5.5 at most books as of late Wednesday morning. Yes, these line moves still get there sometimes (see Lions vs. Rams last Sunday night), but the Bengals fit the “not as bad as they looked category,” plus regular readers know I’ve written many times that the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around even if they end up with the SU win, so we have wiggle room to cover here.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Bengals +5.5 (pool play: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contest, though Chiefs still 65/35 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Denver Broncos

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line was Steelers -2.5 before Justin Fields started for Russell Wilson and led them to an 18-10 win at the Falcons (while the Broncos pushed in their 26-20 loss at Seattle), so it has ticked up to -3 even money with Broncos +3 -120. I’ll pass on this one as we’re still trying to figure out these two teams, and as I wrote above, there are plenty of dogs I like more in Week 2.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests but Steelers 55/45 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6)

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

We get an intriguing matchup on Sunday Night Football this week with last year’s breakout rookie QB CJ Stroud and the Texans hosting this year’s No. 1 pick Caleb Williams and the Bears. As I’ve written many times, I was on the Texans a lot last year before everyone else got on the bandwagon, and back in February, I made them my value pick at 20-1 to win this season’s Super Bowl. I’m tempted to take my childhood team in the Bears, as the advance line on this game was -3.5 and has been adjusted to -6 after Williams struggled in his debut (and got bailed out by the Chicago defense and special teams), but I’m definitely on the fence here. If the line climbs any higher (we can’t get +7, can we?), I probably won’t resist taking the dog, but for now, I have to pass.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans 67/33 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Monday nighter had an advance line of Eagles -4 and the line move makes sense as the Eagles won and covered in their 34-29 win vs. the Packers in Brazil and the Falcons laid an egg in Kirk Cousins’ Atlanta debut in their 18-10 loss vs. the Steelers. However, the Falcons should be better than they looked, so I can’t pass up the bonus points in the Week 2 finale – and note that a few books have already gone to 7, so there might be more value waiting for the weekend.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Falcons +6.5 or higher (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, though Eagles 70/30 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 2 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 2 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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