Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 3 Best Bets:

NFL Week 2 was a bloodbath for the vast majority of football bettors nationwide, but we were laughing all the way to the bank here in the Tuley’s Takes home office as our “dog or pass approach” for NFL best bets paid off again and again.

Underdogs actually went 8-7 straight-up (with Rams-Cardinals closing pick-’em) over the Thursday-to-Monday weekend and an even more impressive 10-4-1 against the spread. Almost all the biggest betting favorites went down in flames, including the Circa Sports Million Top 5 Most Selected Teams going 0-5 with all chalk (Texans -6.5, Chiefs -5.5, Colts -2.5, Ravens -8 and Jaguars -3). The Westgate SuperContest Top 5 went 1-3-1, with the lone win being the sole underdog on the Vikings +6.

 

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My Best Bets in this weekly VSiN.com column went 5-1 ATS with wins on the Buccaneers +7 at the Lions, Packers +3 at home vs. the Colts, Browns +3 at the Jaguars, Bengals +5.5 at the Chiefs and Falcons +6.5 at the Eagles (with the Bengals being the only winner not to pull an outright upset). The lone loss was on the Titans +3.5 vs. the Jets as they blew a win (and cover) for the second straight week.

My @ViewFromVegas entry went 5-0 in the SuperContest and 4-1 in Circa Sports Million as I subbed in the Titans +4 for the Packers on that entry.

After going 2-3 ATS in Week 1, that brings our Best Bets here at 7-4 ATS. (63.6%). We’ll take that to start any NFL season.

As we wrote last week, we were looking to take advantage of overadjusted lines from the oddsmakers and public overreacting to what was seen in Week 1. Now, we personally have to guard from being too overconfident and trust the “dog or pass process.”

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Without further ado, let’s get to our takes on NFL Week 3.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The Thursday nighter is an AFC East showdown with both teams at 1-1. The Patriots were projected by many to be the worst teams in the league. Still, they upset the Bengals in the opener and are very close to being an unexpected 2-0 as they took the Seahawks to overtime before losing 23-20 (being the push at +3 in the aforementioned 10-4-1 ATS dog record for the week, but covering +3.5 in a lot of contests like Circa and Westgate). The advance line on this game last week was Jets -6.5, so it has ticked down, making it less appealing for yours truly. There are better underdog plays the rest of the weekend.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jets 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use Thursday Night Football & 75/25 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Both these teams are off to 2-0 starts. The Steelers are the bigger surprise as they upset the Falcons as 4-point road dogs in the opener, and they beat the Broncos as short 2.5-point road chalk last Sunday, while the Chargers have easily covered as favorites in their wins vs. the Raiders and at the Panthers. I actually have the Chargers favored here, but don’t feel strong enough to call for the upset and make it a Best Bet.

However, they’re certainly a play in 2-team, 6-point teasers as we can move the line up over a touchdown to +7.5 in a game with the lowest Over/Under of the week at 36 (and some books like Circa and BetMGM down to 35.5), so points should be at a premium. Our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” went 2-1 last week, winning legs with Bills +8.5 and Giants +7.5 but losing with Rams +7.5. This week, we’ll use the Chargers with the other teasers that capture both the key numbers of 3 and 7: Bears +7.5 at Colts, Vikings +7.5 vs. Texans. Eagles +8.5 or higher at Saints and Packers +7.5 at Titans (for chalk bettors, you could also include 49ers -1.5 at Rams and Bengals -1.5 vs. Commanders, but those aren’t as appealing to me).

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Chargers +7.5 as first leg in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Chicago Bears at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The Colts are 0-2 after getting upset by the Jordan Love-less Packers while the Bears are 1-1 after losing to the Texans 19-13, but are 2-0 ATS as they covered as 6.5-point road underdogs. Those results have moved this line from Colts -2.5 down to -1.5. That doesn’t lose too much value on the Bears, but with the offense struggling early as rookie QB Caleb Williams goes through his growing pains, we’re more comfortable just counting on their defense/special teams to keep them in the game and cover for our teasers.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Bears +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Houston Texans (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Both teams are 2-0, with the Vikings the bigger surprise after upsetting the 49ers 23-17 last Sunday after closing as 4.5-point home dogs. I would consider them as home dogs again if we were getting the advance line of +3.5, but that’s long gone with the upset, so we’ll just include the Vikes in our teaser portfolio.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Vikings +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Browns -6.5 last week and re-opened Browns -7 at the Westgate on Sunday afternoon after both teams lost. Now, I can understand how readers might assume I would see value fading the upward line move for no real reason, but that has disappeared with the move back to 6.5. But I’m not sure I would have taken the +7 anyway, as I’m not as willing to fade the Browns as much as a lot of handicappers. I was glad to take them at +3 at the Jaguars last week after I thought too many people jumped off the Cleveland bandwagon after their 33-17 home loss vs. the Cowboys in Week 1. And who really wants to take the Giants plus less than a TD?

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Speaking of jumping off the bandwagon, the advance line on this game was Eagles -3 before inexcusably blowing a late lead in their 22-21 loss vs. the Falcons on Monday Night Football, and has flipped all the way to Saints -3 +100 (with Eagles offered at +3 -120) at Circa Sports and BetMGM as of late, late Wednesday night. I’m willing to take a stand and go with the Eagles +2.5 in the Westgate SuperContest, and would gladly pay the extra 10 cents in vig to get them +3. Either way, we’re pulling for the minor outright upset (though we will include in teasers as mentioned above).

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Eagles +3 EVEN or even +2.5 (pool play: Eagles 60/40 in ATS contests at +2.5, even higher at 3 and especially if offered 3.5, and let’s call it Eagles 55/45 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

We were happy to be all over the Buccaneers +7 at the Lions last week, even though we weren’t counting on the outright upset, but I still don’t think that warranted this line going from the Bucs -5.5 on the advance line to -6.5. And it’s trending toward 7, with Wynn Las Vegas and the local Station Casinos books already dealing Broncos +7 -120 as of early Thursday morning. I’d love to get +7 -110, but still willing to take the 0-2 Broncos plus the 6.5 as mostly a fade of the Bucs.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Broncos +6.5 or higher (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers 70/30 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

Here’s a case where I loved taking the Packers +3 vs. the Colts on the overjusted line after Jordan Love’s injury, but this isn’t enough points to back them again, even though I’m sure some followers who’ve lost with us on the Titans each of the past two weeks are looking to fade them. On the other hand, the Titans’ inability to hold leads in the second half does have us willing to tease the Packers up over a touchdown.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Packers +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Titans 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

This line has been all over the place as the Raiders were -4.5 on the advance line, but then after they upset the Ravens 26-23 as 8- to 9.5-point dogs on Sunday, and the Panthers were routed 26-3 by the Chargers, the line reopened Raiders -7. That was probably an overadjustment (and we considered a play on the hapless Panthers just on that fact alone), but then Carolina announced it was benching second-year QB Bryce Young and replacing him with veteran Andy Dalton, and the line has settled at Raiders -5. Any line value is gone for me to back this ugly dog.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

This line has mostly flipped from Dolphins -1.5 to Seahawks -4.5 (and was as high as Seattle -6.5 on Sunday night). This is partly because the Seahawks are 2-0 and the Dolphins are 0-2, but mostly because Tua Tagovailoa is out with another concussion and replaced by Skylar Thompson. I’m tempted to take the Dolphins with the adjustment, but just don’t feel it’s enough. I’m also leery because the oddsmakers seem to have a pretty good handle on this Seattle team (beat Broncos 26-20 as 6- to 6.5-point faves and beat the Patriots 23-20 in OT after closing as 3-point chalk), so maybe 6.5 is the right number.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Detroit Lions (-3) at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

We’ve also seen line value disappear on the underdog here as the Lions were -4.5 on the advance line last week and it’s dropped to the key number of 3. The Cardinals have exceeded expectations by covering as 6.5-point dogs in their 34-28 loss at the Bills in Week 1 and blowing out the Rams 41-10 this past Sunday, so we get the line drop from that standpoint, but what keeps up from at least getting the hook at +3.5 is the Lions struggling to beat the Rams in their season opener (even though they ended up covering -5.5 in OT) and getting upset 20-16 by the Buccaneers as 8-point chalk. The number is just too short to trust the Cards again.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

This is looking like the marquee game of Week 3, so it’s no surprise that the advance line was pick ’em and reopened there on Sunday afternoon after the Ravens were upset by the Raiders and the Cowboys were blown out by the Saints. It has ticked up to Ravens -1, but that’s not enough to get me on the dog as it’s basically still pick, plus it’s still out what we call “the teaser zone,” as you still wouldn’t get over the key number of 7 unless paying extra for a 6.5-point teaser. We’ll just enjoy this game (though I could see myself jumping in with an in-play bet on whoever falls behind as the dog) and pick up notes for future plays.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

San Francisco 49ers (-7) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The advance line on this was 49ers -6.5 last week before the Rams were blown out by the Cardinals 41-10, and the 49ers lost 23-17 at the Vikings. I would think the Rams’ loss – plus losing receivers left and right – could cause this line to cross the key number of 7 to 7.5; however, the 49ers have also lost major offensive weapons (Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel), too, so why the move through the key number with the 49ers again the road, no less? We’re not going to fight it, as we love the added value. This is also a divisional game with teams and coaching staffs very familiar with each other, and that usually has value on the underdog in what should be a hard-fought, close rivalry game. Most books have settled at 7, so we’ll grade it at that number here, but grab the hook if you can (which is the SuperContest line and in a lot of contests).

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Rams +7 or higher (pool play: Rams 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, though 49ers still 67/33 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Regular “Tuley’s Takes” readers already know what I’m going to write here and could write it themselves: the Chiefs tend to let teams stick around, so we’re often fading them with the added points the oddsmakers and the market gives us as they’re such a popular team with the betting public. They’re 2-0 with close wins over Baltimore and Cincinnati (and we benefited from our approach with the Bengals +5.5 in the Chiefs’ 26-25 victory), so you know we’re going to take the Falcons here as home dogs getting the hook at +3.5. We also have added confidence with how Kirk Cousins and the offense came through in their 22-21 upset in Philadelphia on Monday night.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Falcons +3.5 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, but the Chiefs still 60/40 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET

We love the Monday Night Football doubleheader with two appealing matchups. Well, actually, this is the better matchup with the Bills hosting the Jaguars. The advance line was Bills -4.5 before the Bills routed the Dolphins 31-10 last Thursday night, and the Jaguars were upset 18-13 by the Browns on Sunday. It reopened Bills -6, which certainly seems warranted, and has settled at 5.5. If anything, I’m not sure it’s been adjusted enough, so I’m going to pass, even though I hope I don’t regret not getting so many points with a decent Jacksonville team that can certainly be a live dog against anyone.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Bills 70/30 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

OK, who has this Bengals team figured out? They were the biggest disappointment in Week 1 and eliminated the most Survivor plays nationwide in their 16-10 home loss vs. the Patriots, then nearly upset the Chiefs in Week 2 before covering as 5.5-point road dogs in their 26-25 shootout loss (we’re glad we were on them after so many other people were overreacting to the Week 1 blunder and abandoning them). The advance line for this game was Bengals -6.5, but now we feel the market is overreacting the other way on them as it’s crossed the key number up to -7.5. We’ll gladly flip to fading them in this spot with a Commanders team that needed seven field goals to beat the Giants 21-18, but we see that as a good sign to be right in this game to the end if they can convert just a couple of those opportunities into TDs. Besides, it’s not often that you get more than 7 points against an 0-2 team.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Commanders +7.5 (pool play: Commanders 67/33 in ATS contests, though Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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