Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 3:
We usually love NFL Week 2 in the Tuley’s Takes office as there are usually several “overreaction” lines from Week 1, but it didn’t work out so well for yours truly this year.
My Best Bets went just 1-4 ATS in Week 2 as favorites went 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS over the weekend, and I was on the wrong side more often than not.
I started with a loss on the Commanders on Thursday Night Football, even though I got the best number at +4.5 last Sunday night before going on VSiN’s “Live Bet Sunday” with Scott Seidenberg as they closed +3 at the Packers but lost 27-18. On Sunday, I lost early with the Jaguars +3.5 at the Bengals (though that was a bad beat as the Jags were winning most of the game and lost on a late TD, 31-27, failing to cover by half a point) and Browns +11.5 (ugly 41-17 blowout).
I did get off the weekly schneid with the Falcons +3.5 on Sunday Night Football as they upset the Vikings 22-6, but then lost with the Raiders +3.5 on Monday Night Football in a 20-9 loss vs. the Chargers (wrong side the whole game even though several chances to get in position to get the back door, though still woulda needed a 2-point conversion).
That drops us to a disappointing 4-6 ATS overall (here and in the big Vegas contests) after going 3-2 ATS in Week 1.
For the record, favorites lead 22-8 SU with two games closing pick-’em (Buccaneers-Falcons and Vikings-Bears in Week 1) and 16-14 ATS, so there have been plenty of dogs cashing. I was happy that I passed on several dogs that ended up not covering in Week 2 (Titans +5.5 vs. Rams, Jets +6.5 vs. Bills, Bears +5.5 at Lions and Saints +3 vs. 49ers), but bummed I missed winning dogs in the Giants +6 at the Cowboys and Seahawks +3 at the Steelers. Also of note, after Unders dominated 12-4 in Week 1, Overs bounced back by going 10-6 in Week 2 (and 8-1 in the early Sunday games), but Unders still lead 18-14 (56.3%) overall.
As I’ve written many times, especially last season when chalk was really smoking in October and November, Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio saved my bankroll. It certainly wasn’t as profitable as Week 1, when eight of nine games in the “teaser zone” where you pass through the key numbers of 3 and 7, but all eligible teasers cashed in Week 2, led by the Patriots +8 at the Dolphins in a 33-27 upset and the Buccaneers +8.5 at the Texans in a 20-19 upset. The other two possible legs I mentioned on the Colts and Chiefs both cashed on 2-team, 6-point teasers, but those lines settled on the Broncos and Eagles both at -1 so those technically didn’t fit the basic strategy unless you were able to find +1.5s somewhere (and then of course it should be at a book that isn’t jacking up the juice to -130 or -140.
Having said all that, let’s move forward to NFL Week 3. Usually, when I have a great week, the next week I love a ton of games because the proverbial “baseball looks like a beach ball,” and after losing weeks, it’s tougher to find dogs I like. However, this week, my first impression was that I liked 10 of the 16 games! That’s too many, so we’ll go through the schedule as usual and try to weed out the weaker plays, concentrating on the strongest. (And, happy to report, there could be upwards of six eligible teaser teams.)
For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup (full 16-game card for Week 3 as we’re a couple of weeks from any byes) and will be from the point of view of trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “pool play” strategy for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Miami at Buffalo (-11.5)
Tuley’s Take: This past Monday night, I appeared on VSiN’s “Cashing Out” with Dustin Swedelson at 10 p.m. PT again gave out the underdog on Thursday Night Football. I sure hope it works out better than the Commanders last week. We have an AFC East rivalry game, though the Bills are head and shoulders above the rest of the division so far as the only team at 2-0 while the Dolphins are in the basement at 0-2. However, I can’t resist the double-digit division dog. The Bills have looked great while the Dolphins looked terrible on both sides of the ball in their 33-8 Week 1 blowout loss at the Colts, but then played much better –especially on offense – before losing 33-27 at home vs. the Patriots. I expect this game to be closer to the Bills-Ravens shootout in Week 1 than the Bills’ 30-10 rout of the Jets in Week 2.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Dolphins +11.5 (pool play: Dolphins 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Bills in all SU pools).
SUNDAY
Indianapolis (-4) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: No. 1 overall draft pick Cam Ward has shown signs of greatness in the first two weeks of his NFL career, but like all rookie QBs, he’s still learning on the job and making plenty of mistakes. The Titans did cover in their 20-12 Week 1 loss at the Broncos, but that line closed Denver -9. They lost 33-19 vs. the Rams, failing to cover as lower-priced dogs at +5.5 (which, again, we gladly passed), so I see this game the same way with the line being too short to take Cam and the Titans, especially with the surprising Colts at 2-0 under Daniel Jones and not having to punt yet.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Atlanta (-6) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: Along with the Dolphins, the Panthers were the second pick I gave out with Swedelson on Monday night. As I said on the show, the advance line on this game was Falcons -2.5 and re-opened across the key number at Falcons -3.5 on Sunday afternoon (after the Panthers were mostly dominated by the Cardinals, though they did rally late to cover all lines of +6.5 to +7 in a 27-22 loss). I didn’t bet the Panthers right away because I liked the Falcons on SNF and was hoping they would beat the Vikings, and this line would climb to +4 or +4.5. The Falcons did win, and it jumped all the way to +5 when I appeared on the show Monday night. As of this writing, it’s up to +6 at the majority of books here in Vegas. We’re hoping, of course, for the Panthers to carry the momentum from late in the Cardinals game, but it’s encouraging to see they can rally and get the back-door cover if needed again. One last thing: we’re more than happy to fade one of the biggest public moves this week as DraftKings is showing 78% of the bets and 86% of the handle on the Falcons as of late Wednesday afternoon on our VSiN Betting Splits Page.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Panthers +6 (pool play: Panthers 65/35 in ATS contests, lower at +5.5, but Falcons still 67/33 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Washington (-3/-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Commanders -5.5 before they lost on Thursday night and the Raiders lost on Monday night. Going back and reading over what I wrote in the intro, I fail to see why this line has dropped so much to -3 in some places (for newbies, the -3/-3.5 in the header means that Vegas sports books are split with half at -3 and half at -3.5 with most charging extra juice on the side you’re looking to bet). When first seeing the opening line of Commanders -5.5 on Sunday night, I marked the Raiders as one of the 10 dogs I was considering, but after watching them Monday and especially the disappearance of any line value, it’s easy for me to make this the first one I pass on.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests (higher at -3) and 67/33 in SU pools).
Green Bay (-7.5) at Cleveland
Tuley’s Take: I’m not sure if you’ve heard the stat, but the Browns have outgained their opponents 649 yards to 383 this season. They also outgained the Ravens 323-242 on Sunday. The Browns’ defense is decent and Myles Garrett is great; however, a lot of the reason for the Browns outgaining the Ravens is because they continually gave the Ravens short fields due to turnovers, a blocked punt to set up a 24-yard TD drive and loss on downs, so it’s hard for a team to rack up yards even when pulling away for a 41-17 rout. The Packers have burned me twice already for fading them with the Lions and Commanders, so it’s still too short for me even with the home dawg of more than a TD.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests in principle, but Packers at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Minnesota (-3)
Tuley’s Take: This line has been all over the place from Vikings -2 on the advance line and re-opening at -4.5 when Joe Burrow got injured (again) for Cincinnati. Of course, then J.J. McCarthy was declared out for the Vikings, and it dipped back down to 3. Jake Browning did step in and lead the Bengals’ rally in their 31-27 win vs. the Jaguars, so I was beginning to say the Bengals would be the only side I would consider (though I’m sure you know that from the “dog or pass” mantra). However, I think the better bet is to start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. I usually don’t do that with 3-point dogs, but several books are starting to juice the +3, so we could see it drop to 2.5. Either way, let’s start our 2-team, 6-point teasers (remember, shop around for the lowest vig) with Bengals +8.5/+9 and use them with our other eligible teasers: Patriots +7.5 vs. Steelers, Texans +8 at Jaguars, Broncos +8.5/+9 at Chargers, Seahawks -1/-1.5 vs. Saints and Cardinals +8.5 at 49ers.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Bengals +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: I was happy to cash with the Cowboys in their 24-20 loss at the Eagles in the Thursday night opener, but it’s really hard to fade the defending champions right now at such a low number, at home no less, especially after taking care of business in a 20-17 win on the road at the Chiefs in their Super Bowl rematch. The advance line on this game was Eagles -5, which I’m not sure if I would still be taking the Rams, but I’m definitely passing now.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests 67/33 in SU pools).
Pittsburgh (-1.5) at New England
Tuley’s Take: Let’s get back to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. This advance line was pick’-em and – after the Patriots beat the Dolphins and the Steelers were upset by the Seahawks – it opened back at pick’-em. I’m not sure why the move has been to Steelers -1.5, but it puts us in the “teaser zone” and we’ll gladly take the Pats +7.5 in our 2-team, 6-point teasers with the other early Sunday games, especially as we loved new New England coach Mike Vrabel as a dog coach in Tennessee.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Patriots +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
New York Jets at Tampa Bay (-6.5)
Tuley’s Take: As stated in the intro, we were happy we didn’t jump on the Jets +6.5 vs. the Bills as a public dog. That was also the No. 1 pick in the Westgate SuperContest and the No. 4 most-picked team in the Circa Sports Million, which are off to 1-9 and 2-8 records, respectively, in the weekly Top 5 consensus plays that I track at my X account. But I will take the Jets here, even though QB Justin Fields has been ruled out with a concussion. For my money, Tyrod Taylor is just as good, and he’s made us a lot of money over the years as he’s been a great under-the-radar QB against the spread at 33-21-4 ATS (61.1%). And I also think it’s very telling that the oddsmakers don’t see a big dropoff, as the line has actually dipped from Bucs -7 to -6.5 instead of rising.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Jets +6.5 (pool play: Jets 60/40 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Houston at Jacksonville (-2)
Tuley’s Take: Back to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. This is a huge divisional game for both teams as the Jaguars (1-1) and Texans (0-2) are both trying to keep pace with the Colts (2-0) in the AFC South. The loser is in big trouble, especially if the Texans fall to the dreaded 0-3. The Texans could easily be 2-0 but lost 14-9 at the Rams and 20-19 at home vs. the Buccaneers, and I fully expect them to be right in this game as well. Besides, the Jaguars led the Bengals stick around even after Burrow got hurt and then lost 31-27, so that’s even more reason to expect a one-score game with the added teaser points coming into play.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Texans +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 55/45 in SU pools).
Denver at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5/-3)
Tuley’s Take: In the VSiN NFL Betting Guide back in July, I gave out the Broncos to make the playoffs and was on the border of betting them to win the AFC West, though ultimately decided against it as I knew they would not only have to overcome the Chiefs but also these Chargers. I was looking at this early road test as a key factor and still expect them to have a good showing and hopefully pull off the minor upset. If this line was a flat 3, I’d probably take the Broncos ATS, but with most books looking like they’re going to settle at 2.5, I’ll make my official pick to include Broncos +8.5 or +9 in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. However, please note that if the Circa and/or Westgate ATS contests offer Broncos +3, I’ll probably add them to my pick 5.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Broncos +8.5/+9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers, plus maybe Broncos +3 (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Seattle (-7/-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: Again, this was among the dogs I marked down that I was considering this week when the line opened Seahawks -8.5 on Sunday afternoon. The Saints played better in Week 2 in their 26-21 loss vs. the 49ers (against Mac Jones) than they did in their 20-13 Week 1 loss vs. the Cardinals, but this line has become too short for me with them playing their first road game. Instead, we’ll tease the Seahawks down to -1/-1.5 for our first and only chalk entry in this week’s Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Seahawks -1/-1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Dallas (-1) at Chicago
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Bears -1.5 last week and I was hoping to be teasing the Cowboys up over a TD; however, after the Cowboys pulled off their miracle victory (especially for us Circa Survivor players) over the Giants and the Bears got routed 52-21 by the Lions, this line re-opened pick-’em and the Cowboys are now up to a 1-point chalk at several books while PK at others. And it hasn’t moved enough the other way for me to consider teasing the Bears, and I doubt I would at this point, even if it did get to +1.5 or even +2.5.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
Arizona at San Francisco (-2)
Tuley’s Take: Speaking of sweating out Survivor picks, I also had an entry on the Cardinals, who looked like they were coasting along only to let the Panthers get within one score late and the ball with a chance to pull the shocking upset. But despite nearly blowing that game, the Cardinals are still playable for me in teasers and probably my strongest opinion in the whole Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. I’ll be using Cardinals +8 as the anchor from all the previously mentioned teaser legs earlier on the card.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Cardinals +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contest, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-6) at New York
Tuley’s Take: Can we flex out of a Sunday Night Football game in Week 3? I guess not, so we’re stuck with the Chiefs at the Giants on Sunday night. Russell Wilson and the Giants did rebound from their ugly 21-6 loss at the Commanders in the opener to cover in their 40-37 OT loss at the Cowboys (though they shoulda won), but I’m still not taking the points here as the line is too short. Besides, I know this sounds square as heck-fire, but I can’t see the Chiefs even flirting with going 0-3 to start the season. The losses to the Chargers and Eagles were understandable, but they should right the ship here. Back before I adopted my “dog or pass” philosophy, this is the kind of favorite I would bet, so for my followers who look for games in which I can’t make a case for the dog and see it as a tacit “buy sign” to bet the chalk, go ahead. But I will add that I prefer to pass as I’ve been burned when I’ve tried to do that myself (historical note: the watershed moment in “dog or pass” was Nov. 7, 2010, when I was still with the Daily Racing Form and picked/bet the Patriots -6 at the Browns as surely the 6-1 Patriots with Tom Brady would blow out the 2-5 Browns and easily cover, right? Final score: Browns 34, Patriots 14.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Detroit at Baltimore (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: Now, here’s a marquee prime-time game and a possible Super Bowl preview in some minds. However, this game takes on even more importance as both teams are just 1-1 after the Lions lost at the Packers in Week 1 and the Ravens lost that epic 41-40 barnburner in the opening SNF game. Both teams got back on track with routs in Week 2, and I really see this game as a shootout that could very well come down to a field goal. With that in mind, I have to love the Lions getting anything more than a field goal as that looks more like the true line than the Ravens -6.5 we saw earlier in the week. I usually don’t like taking a public dog like this, but the Circa figures on the VSiN Betting Splits Page have 67% of the bets on the Ravens but 52% of the handle on the Lions, which is indicative of the sharper/bigger bets being on the dog and hopefully the right side.
NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Lions +4.5 (pool play: Lions 60/40 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 60/40 in SU pools).
For more Week 3 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 3 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
