Tuley’s Takes: NFL Week 4 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

A lot of people are calling this the “Year of the Underdog.” And while the start of the NFL season has been very good to us, we’re not counting our puppies before they hatch here in the Tuley’s Takes home office.

In NFL Week 3, we went 4-1 ATS with your Best Bets in our Wednesday “Tuley’s Takes” columns here at VSiN.com (after going 5-1 ATS in Week 2). We won with the Eagles +3 at the Saints, Broncos +6.5 at the Buccaneers, Rams +7 vs. 49ers, and Commanders +7.5 at Bengals. Let it be Tuley Noted that all four pulled outright upsets. Our lone loss was the Falcons +3.5 vs. the Chiefs on Sunday night, and that was a bit of a bad beat, but ya can’t win ’em all, though we’re trying!

 

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That improves our record here to 11-5 ATS (68.8%) here, and I’m also in 17th place in the Westgate SuperContest at 11-4 (unfortunately, only 10-5 in the Circa Sports Million as I used Titans instead of the Packers in Week 2). I’m sure you’ve all seen or read the stat the underdogs of +5.5 or higher are 14-2 ATS with 10 outright upsets, so I kinda think I should be doing even better. However, I should add that I’m prouder of the fact we went 4-1 ATS in Week 3 when favorites and underdogs actually split 8-8 ATS than when I went 5-1 ATS in Week 2 when dogs dominated 10-4-1 with one pick ’em (Patriots +3, though also covered earlier numbers at +3.5).

The biggest takeaway from all this is to continue being selective in our “dog or pass” approach. The danger is to get overconfident and play even more dogs since they’ve been so live, but oddsmakers are adjusted to the early-season trends and will be taking away value for underdog bettors, especially since every Tom, Dick and Harry out there is going to be jumping on the bandwagon. There will be a lot of public dogs (rarely a good thing to be on the same side).

For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

Without further ado, let’s get to our takes on NFL Week 4.

Dallas Cowboys (-5.5) at New York Giants

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMAZON)

The Thursday nighter had an advance line of Cowboys -4.5 last week before the Giants upset the Browns 21-15. The Cowboys lost 28-25 to the Ravens after being dominated early and rallied to make a game of it. I’m actually a little surprised that this line has risen (especially in light of my comment above about lines probably being shaded lower with all the success of underdogs), as that would usually be the case. Still, it’s hard for me to trust the Giants to repeat their performance even as a divisional home dog, as the Cowboys aren’t as likely to get in a hole again. Hard pass.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in rare ATS contests that use Thursday Night Football and 80/20 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

This is an important early-season game in the NFC South, with the Falcons (1-2) trailing the Saints and Buccaneers (both 2-1) after their coin-flip loss to the Chiefs. The advance line was pick ’em last week before both teams lost, and the line has slowly moved to the Falcons, probably just because everyone saw them go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, and it continues to climb. However, this should be a barnburner that comes down to a field goal, so I love the Saints +8.5 to kick off my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. 

Note: in Week 3, our TTP underdog plays went 4-1 (wins on the Bears, Vikings, Eagles, and Packers), so hopefully, you used all the combos, not including the Chargers. Also, I hope you didn’t go with the chalk options as I wrote: “For chalk bettors, you could also include 49ers -1.5 at Rams and Bengals -1.5 vs. Commanders, but those aren’t as appealing to me.” Dog or pass applies here as well in my book. The other TTP options this week are Colts +7.5 vs. Steelers, Vikings +8.5 at Packers, Buccaneers +8 vs. Eagles, Browns +8 at Raiders, and Bills +8.5 at Ravens. Wow, that’s a lot, so I recommend trimming down to your top choices.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Saints +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in ATS contests but flip slightly to Falcons 55/45 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

As we just wrote, there are half a dozen games in the “teaser zone” where we’re able to move the dog up over a touchdown. That’s great for those purposes (and another example of the tightening of the lines we discussed earlier), but we’ll spend a good part of the rest of this column deciding which dogs are also worth ATS plays without the added points. The Colts are the first “buy” team for me as they should grind out a home win like they just did against the Bears. Besides, this is just as much of a bet against the Steelers, who are the only 3-0 team that has scored as few as 51 points (average of 17 per game).

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Colts +1.5 plus in +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line for this game was Texans -4 before the Texans were blown out 34-7 by the Vikings. The Jaguars dropped to 0-3 after being routed 47-10 by the Bills on Monday night. Regular readers know I have futures on the Texans and I’m happy with their 2-1 start, but even I don’t agree this line should have gone higher. However, I hope regular readers also grabbed the +7s that were out there before being bet back down. Regardless, the Jaguars are still the play in this divisional rivalry.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Jaguars +6.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if your pool offers +7.5, but Texans 67/33 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Vikings lead the NFC North at 3-0, while the Packers are 2-1, thanks to Malik Willis stepping in for Jordan Love. There are plenty of reports that Love might return for this game, but we probably won’t see as big of a line adjustment as we did between Week 1 and Week 2 after Love was hurt (Green Bay went from -5 to +3 vs. the Colts before pulling off the 16-10 upset). Regardless, we’re sticking with the Vikings in our teasers for all the usual reasons: teaser zone for dog, divisional rivalry, tight game, etc.).

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Vikings +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests but Packers 55/45 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The advance line on this game was Bengals -6 before the Panthers got their first win of the season behind Andy Dalton, and the Bengals dropped to 0-3 with their home loss vs. the Commanders on Monday night. It’s not down to 4.5 (note: I first typed this sentence on Tuesday, but as of Wednesday afternoon, it’s down to 4 at most books and trending toward 3.5), so any value on the dog is gone.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Here’s another game where we don’t understand the reason for the line movement in the direction of the favorite, especially as the Bears’ offense continues to struggle with rookie QB Caleb Williams (who I still believe will be great) and the 49ers just upset the 49ers as 7-point home underdogs. I mean, shouldn’t the Rams be favored? But, hey, we’ll gladly take the generous points.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Rams +3 and even +2.5 in contests if we must (pool play: Rams 60/40 in ATS contests and even 55/45 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-7.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line for this game was Jets -7.5 and has stayed right there after the Jets easily beat the Patriots 24-3 on Thursday Night Football, and the Broncos got in the win column with a surprising 26-7 rout at the Buccaneers. I get it that people love to bet Aaron Rogers, but I really think this line should be under a touchdown, 7 at the most. I’ll gladly take the hook.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Broncos +7.5 (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, though Jets still 70/30 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles (-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

These have been tough teams to figure out this season (well, there’s a big group of those, right?), but both are 2-1 after the aforementioned upset of the Bucs by the Broncos and the Eagles squeaked by the Saints. The Eagles were -1.5 on the advance, and it’s stayed right around there as this is a coin-flip game. That also makes it probably my favorite teaser leg of the week in what should be a very close game between two teams trying to stay in the playoff hunt.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Buccaneers +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests, but flip slightly to Eagles 55/45 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Arizona Cardinals (-3.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Cardinals were -6 on the advance line before losing 20-13 at home vs. the Lions and then the Commanders upset the Bengals 38-33 on Monday night. So, it’s no surprise that this line has plummeted to 3.5, but it might surprise some of my loyal readers that I’m not saying “the value is gone on the dog.” I’m still on board with the Commanders getting the hook at +3.5 and went ahead and bet it. I’m including it with my Best Bets here, though I suspect we’ll only get +3 in our major contests..

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Commanders +3.5 and even +3 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Cardinals still 60/40 in SU pools).

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Patriots, who were regarded as the worst team in the league entering the season, showed they weren’t that bad with their season-opening upset of the Bengals and taking the Seahawks to OT in Week 2 before losing. They came back to Earth with their 24-3 loss at the Jets last Thursday, but I’m still a little surprised this line hasn’t dipped to single digits after the 49ers were upset 27-24 by the Rams. I can’t pass on the first double-digit dog of the season.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Patriots +10 (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +10.5, but 49ers 80/20 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders (-2)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line for this blockbuster matchup (tongue firmly planted in cheek) was Browns -1.5 before they were upset 21-15 by the lowly Giants and the Raiders were upset 36-22 by the lowlier Panthers (though upgraded by Dalton over Bryce Young). Can someone explain why the line has flipped to the Raiders? Never mind, we already said we were taking the Browns in teasers but now we’re adding it as a Best Bet. The Raiders certainly can’t be trusted as favorites (the craziest thing to me was 515 entries using them in Circa Survivor). I expect the Browns to bounce back from their loss like they did in Week 2 after dropping their opener.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Browns +2 plus +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests and 55/45 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

As stated in the intro, my lone loss was on the Falcons +3.5 vs. the Chiefs and I still believe I was on the right side as the Chiefs almost always let teams stick around even if they end up winning/covering. The advance line on this game was Chiefs -9.5 and it’s a little surprising it went down to 8 (and 7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon), especially with Justin Herbert dealing with a high ankle sprain. However, I trust Taylor Heinicke enough to grab the points now on the divisional home underdog.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Chargers +7.5 (pool play: Chargers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 70/30 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

This reminds me of the Ravens’ game with the Cowboys last Sunday when I wrote that I was just going to enjoy the game without a straight bet or a contest play, and just go with a teaser on the dog. I feel the exact same way here as these two AFC powerhouses should duke it out from start to finish and getting the Bills at more than a TD in teasers is too much to pass up.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Bills +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests, but flip to Ravens 55/45 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-1)

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

I’m not sure this was ever seen as an attractive matchup to kick off the Monday Night Football doubleheader, but with Tua Tagovailoa out it’s definitely the undercard. The Dolphins still have more playmakers, so I’m not tempted to grab the Titans in teasers. And with the NFL not staggering the start times for these MNF twinbills, it’s easy to just wait for the nightcap.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-3.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)

The advance line was Lions -4.5 before they beat the Cardinals 20-13 and the Seahawks ran over the Dolphins 24-3. I was hoping the line would hold at 4.5, which is where the Westgate SuperBook opened it on Sunday afternoon (I was out of town for a college newspaper reunion at Northern Illinois, so I missed it), but it’s now pretty much a solid 3.5. That’s still more than a field goal, but I’ll probably still pass, as I have plenty of dogs I like on the Sunday card.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Lions 65/35 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 4 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 4 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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