Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

We couldn’t be much happier with the start of the NFL season here in the Tuley’s Takes home office with the way the dogs keep barking. It’s music to our ears. Our NFL Best Bets with our recommended “dog or pass” plays went 5-3 ATS (62.5%) in Week 4 – winners on the Colts +1.5, Jaguars +6.5, Broncos +7.5, Commanders +3.5 and Chargers +7.5 with losses on the Rams +3, Patriots +10 and Browns +2 – as we’re a solid 16-8 ATS (66.7%) so far in these “Tuley’s Takes” columns here.

With so many big dogs covering, I kind of wish my @ViewFromVegas entries were doing even better in the Westgate SuperContest (14-6, 70%, tied for 20th place) and Circa Sports Million (one partnership entry at 14-6, 70%, tied for 44th, and another solo entry at 12-7-1, 63.2%, tied for 321st), but with overall NFL dogs at 35-25-2 ATS (58.3%) with two pick-ems, I guess I’m still ahead of the curve.

 

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Our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” recommendations have also been profitable with dogs being competitive and that’s where the points really do come into play. In Week 4, our plays went 5-1 with winning legs on the Saints +7.5, Colts +7.5, Vikings +8.5, Buccaneers +8 and Browns +8 (early readers could have grabbed that last one, though I’m guessing later readers/bettors passed when the line moved to the Browns being favored – but those flipping to Raiders +8.5 also cashed, so it’s all good). Our only loss was on the Bills +8.5 at the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

Enough looking back. Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 5. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

We have a couple of things working against us this week in trying to find five live underdogs for our contest plays as well as overall bets: 1) we only have 14 games to choose from as four teams (Eagles, Lions, Chargers, Titans) have byes, and 2) the lines are so depressed with everyone looking for live dogs that we’re not getting many points to raise our chances of covering in SU losses. The good news is most of our ATS-winning dogs have been pulling outright upsets and not needing the points, so we’ll keep handicapping the same way. (Tuley Noted: with the lower spreads, this looks like another prime week for dog teasers.)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMZN)

The Week 5 Thursday nighter makes our dog teaser point out of the gate. We get a divisional rivalry with the NFC South-leading Buccaneers (3-1) visiting the Falcons (2-2), and I gotta believe the only reason the Falcons are favored is because they’re at home. Regular readers know I put little stock in home-field advantage these days across all sports (or at least shouldn’t be giving 3 or even 2 points in pro football like most people still say). In fact, the advance line on this game was Falcons -3 last week at the Westgate SuperBook, so we see the market agreeing with me. However, I’m not confident enough to take the depressed line (would love Tampa Bay at +3), so this will just have to kick off our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with the Bucs +7.5 to the Jets +8.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +8.5, Raiders +8.5 and Cowboys +8.5. Note: 49ers -1.5 for chalk teaser players.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Buccaneers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in rare SU and ATS contests that use Thursday Night Football).

New York Jets vs. Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Sunday, 9:30 p.m. ET – London, England (NFL)

We get the season’s first across-the-pond game early Sunday morning (since Packers-Eagles in Brazil was international), with the Jets and Vikings facing off in London. The advance line was Jets -2.5 last week before the Vikings beat the Packers 31-29 to improve to 4-0, and the Jets lost 10-9 to the Broncos, causing Minnesota to be flipped to favoritism. The Vikings have sure been impressive under the resurgent Sam Darnold, but is the line move warranted? I don’t believe so, especially with New York having the better defense (No. 3, allowing just 256.5 yards per game), plus the offense expected to improve under Aaron Rodgers. I would prefer if we get +3 (and maybe we will, as many books juiced in that direction), but even though I’ve already listed the Jets as a teaser play, I’ll also be taking them in my bigger contests, including straight-up.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Jets +2.5 and +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 60/40 in SU & ATS contests).

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

I’m sure many regular readers of mine are assuming I’m going to be fading the Bears as a favorite here, since it usually fits my modus operandi. I certainly considered it, as the Bears still only have the 30th-ranked offense. Rookie QB Caleb Williams is still trying to figure things out, while the Panthers are more dangerous since Andy Dalton replaced Bryce Young. But I still can’t trust Carolina without more points, as they’re still 1-3 SU and ATS with the only win vs. the Raiders.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-2.5/-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

For the uninitiated, -2.5/-3 means that the market is split between those two numbers as of Wednesday (and usually -120 on the preferred side). The advance line on this game was Baltimore -1.5, and even though the Bengals got off the schneid with their first win of the season over the Panthers, this line has moved toward a field goal due to the Ravens’ 35-10 rout of the Bills on Sunday night. Again, I’m not willing to take the short number, but I will tease the Bengals through the FG and TD.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Bengals +8.5 or higher in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Ravens 65/35 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (pick ’em/-1) at Houston Texans

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Most people are viewing this game as a coin-flip (not a shock with the line around pick ’em), but when I made the Texans my top Super Bowl value pick at 22-1 back in February, I was certainly projecting that they were turning the table and would be able to win marquee games like this. I certainly have to stick to my guns with their No. 8 offense and No. 5 defense having them off to a 3-1 start and atop the AFC South. Take the point if you can get it, but obviously I’m calling for the SU win.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Texans +1 or pick-’em (pool play: Texans 67/33 in SU & ATS contests).

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Here we have another line wavering between 2.5/3, though more books siding with Jaguars -3 EVEN and Colts +3 -120. It’s tempting to take the Colts plus a field goal (and I might add them as a contest play since you’re not paying extra vig to get +3), but the recommended cash wager for our purposes here is teasing the underdog through the 3 and 7..

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Colts +8.5 or higher in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests but Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

It’s kind of amazing how the Miami bandwagon has emptied so much with Tua Tagovailoa out with another concussion (and three straight losses by 31-10 vs. the Bills, 24-3 at the Seahawks and 31-12 vs. the Titans don’t help). In fact, they’re now actually underdogs in New England. But after seeing Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley try to operate the offense, I’m not on the dog here despite the edge in other skill players.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).

Cleveland Browns at Washington Commanders (-3/-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Here’s another line that has undergone a big adjustment and it’s our job to determine if it’s warranted or if we should fade it. Over the summer, the Browns were solid 3-point road favorites in this Week 5 matchup. Obviously, Jayden Daniels’ epic start to his rookie season has the Commanders at 3-1 (while the Browns are an ugly 1-3). Washington is now -3 with several books making chalk bettors lay the hook at -3.5. I can’t resist taking the bonus points here, especially as the Browns still have an elite defense (ranked No. 11, allowing under 300 yards per game) no matter how much the offense struggles.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Browns +3 or better (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Commanders 60/40 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Broncos -1.5 and I’m surprised it’s trending toward a field goal after both teams won Sunday (Broncos over Jets and Raiders over Browns), but we’ll gladly tease the Raiders through the field goal and the touchdown in what should be a one-score game.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Raiders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET

I’ve already mentioned regretting not taking all the big underdogs of +7 or higher, so I hope I’m not wrong here for passing on the Cardinals getting more than a TD. I did lose on the Patriots +10.5 vs. the 49ers last Sunday (though they got within the spread in the third quarter before getting run over), and I’m afraid of the same thing happening with the Cardinals, especially as they weren’t able to keep up with the Commanders. Despite the big spread, I just like other dogs better this weekend.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 85/15 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-3/-3.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Rams have been a tough team to figure out with all their injuries, but while they lost for us against the Bears on Sunday, I keep thinking back to the 27-24 upset of the 49ers for us in Week 3. That was also at home, and we see the Rams as the liveliest home underdog of the weekend. Granted, the Green Bay offense looked better with Jordan Love back, but neither defense is looking strong, so we’ll take the points in a shootout.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Rams +3 or higher (pool play: Rams 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at 3.5, though Packers 60/40 in SU pools).

New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET

The Giants somehow covered in their 20-15 loss vs. the Cowboys as 5.5-point home underdogs last Thursday, but you won’t find me on them here. Despite the added rest, I’m not thrilled with them traveling to the Pacific Northwest and taking on the No 6 offense in the league (387 yards per game). Seattle actually outgained Detroit 516 yards to 389 in their 42-29 loss on Monday night, so I just don’t see the Giants keeping pace (or trusting them to get a back-door cover).

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Seahawks 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET

Here’s another change of favoritism as the Cowboys were -2.5 over the summer and still -1 last week. I’m a little puzzled at the line movement, as the Cowboys’ 20-15 win at the Giants was right around the spread, and the Steelers lost 27-24 at Indianapolis. Still, Pittsburgh is a surprising 3-1, atop the AFC North and playing great defense (No. 4, allowing just 261.8 yards per game). If this were to get to 3, I probably won’t be able to resist, but for now just teasing the Cowboys through the key numbers.

NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Cowboys +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers.

New Orleans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Chiefs are the last undefeated team in the AFC at 4-0 (the Vikings are 4-0 atop the NFC), but I’ll keep banging the drum that they let teams stick around and will keep fading them just like cashing with them on Sunday with the Chargers +7.5 (though pushed on closing line of 7). The Saints are 2-2, but their losses in the last two weeks were by a combined five points, so I fully expect this game to come down to a field goal as well.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Saints +5.5 (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 5 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 5 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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