Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 5:
We certainly know the roller-coaster ride of sports betting here in the Tuley’s Take office.
After sweeping NFL Week 3 by going 4-0 ATS in these weekly columns, I went 1-4 ATS with our best bets in Week 4 with losses on Buccaneers +3.5 in a 31-25 home loss vs. the Eagles (ugh), Panthers +5.5 in a 42-13 loss at the Patriots (ouch), Browns +10 in a 34-10 loss at the Lions (not as bad as final score looks) and Colts +3.5 in a 27-20 loss at the Rams (that was a bad beat). Our lone win was the Jaguars +3.5 in their 26-21 road upset of the 49ers. That drops our overall record to 9-10 ATS on the young season.
But the good news is that our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio bailed us out once again as we hit every single leg, so we along with our followers hit no matter what combination you used with Cardinals +7.5 (a lean when line was Seahawks -1 before going to -1.5 by gameday), Steelers +8.5, Texans -1, Chiefs +8.5, Jets +8.5 and Broncos -1).
The temptation is to just bet the teasers, though anyone in the marketplace knows it’s harder to find reasonably priced 2-team, 6-point teasers (I’ve heard from many guys here in Vegas who have switched to 3-teamers at plus-money).
For our purposes here, we’re going to continue breaking down all the NFL games each week and mix in the teasers, as I know a lot of you have been benefitting from them as well, no matter how you’re playing them.
Without further ado, let’s get to NFL Week 5. For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup (just 14 games this week with the Bears, Packers, Steelers and Falcons having early bye weeks) and will be from my “dog or pass” point of view trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “pool play” strategy for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams (-8)
Tuley’s Take: Regular readers know I often cite the advanced lines from the week before to see how the marketplace is viewing the two teams, with an eye toward finding where the oddsmakers and/or the public overreacts. The advanced line on this Thursday nighter was Rams -3.5 before they rallied to beat the Colts on Sunday, and the 49ers lost to the Jaguars. That usually wouldn’t cause more than a half-point change in the spread, but San Fran QBs Brock Purdy and Mac Jones were hobbled and the line reopened Rams -5.5.
That seemed fair, but the line kept creeping higher during the week to -6 and -6.5, and then with the confirmation that Purdy is out and Jones is starting, the line reached -7 (with many books already juicing the chalk) before I started writing this column. It has gone to 7.5 at the majority of books as I’m finishing Wednesday afternoon (BREAKING NEWS: and one final check before submitting and it’s at +8 at several books and +8.5 at Circa Sports just after 4 p.m. PT). Granted, the 49ers have other injuries, but that’s too much of an adjustment in my humble opinion, especially as the Rams’ only win by more than a TD was against the lowly Titans. They tend to play one-score games. Gimme the divisional underdog in prime time.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: 49ers +8 or better (pool play: 49ers 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Rams 67/33 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Minnesota (-3.5) vs. Cleveland
London, England
Tuley’s Take: The Vikings stay overseas after losing to the Steelers in Ireland and now face the Browns early Sunday in London. The Browns let us down against the Lions, but I still would have considered them here with Joe Flacco. Instead, the Browns have turned to rookie QB Dillon Gabriel, so I have to stay away. A rookie QB making his first NFL start not only away from home but across an ocean? No thanks.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Vikings 67/33 in SU pools).
Miami (-1) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: Both teams are off to poor 1-3 starts, with the Panthers’ only win over the Falcons in Week 3 and the Dolphins getting off the schnied by beating the Jets 27-21 this past Monday night. The advance line was Panthers -1.5 and has flipped to the Dolphins being favored. I would usually be looking to tease the short underdog up over a TD, but I’m leaning toward leaving the Panthers off the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio even if the line gets to 1.5. Bryce Young looked much worse in Carolina’s 42-13 loss in New England and was benched. He might be on a short leash again.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).
Dallas (-2.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: Here’s where we start this week’s Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. The advance line was Cowboys -1.5 and stayed right there after they tied the Packers 40-40 on Sunday night, and the Jets lost 27-21 at the Dolphins. It has since been bet up to -2.5, which puts it even more solidly into the “teaser zone” as we can move the line 6 points up to Jets +8.5 to capture the TD plus 2-point conversion.
Justin Fields returned in Week 3 and threw a TD pass and ran for another in leading the offense to 21 points and the back-door cover. He should keep them right in this game as well. The other teaser plays (at least as lines sit as of Wednesday afternoon) are the Giants +8 at the Saints, Ravens +7.5 vs. the Texans, Cardinals -1.5 vs. Titans, Commanders +8.5 at Chargers and Bills -2 vs. Patriots (and possibly Colts -1 as you’ll see in the next game).
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Jets +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Cowboys 55/45 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-7)
Tuley’s Take: This line was only Colts -1.5 during the spring and summer, but due to the Colts’ hot start to the season, the one-week advanced line was Colts -6 before they suffered their first loss to the Rams, and the Raiders lost 25-24 at home vs. the Bears. That has pushed the line to a full TD, which has me looking at the underdog Raiders.
Pete Carroll has Las Vegas playing competitively despite double-digit losses to the Commanders and Chargers. I believe this line should be closer to a FG, between 3.5 and 4.5, so I love getting the full TD in what should be a one-score game. Note: I would talk anyone out of teasing the Colts down to -1 and shooting for a middle.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Raiders +7, plus possibly using Colts -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at +6.5, but Colts 70/30 in SU pools).
New York Giants at New Orleans (-2)
Tuley’s Take: This might be the ugliest matchup of the week, but every NFL game is bettable, right? The advance line was pick-’em before the Giants upset the Chargers in Jaxson Dart’s first start, and the Saints covered +16 in a 31-19 loss at the Bills. I was a little surprised that the market has made New Orleans the favorite (especially with New York having a bigger fan base). I’m half-tempted to take the Giants ATS or on the money line, but then I tell myself that since it’s just Dart’s first start (and the Saints have more game tape to review) that the better play is to tease the Giants over a TD and count on another one-score game.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Giants +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests, but Saints 55/45 in SU pools).
Denver at Philadelphia (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: Damn, the Eagles keep covering as 3.5-point favorites (Week 3 vs. Rams, though that was the famous blocked FG returned for a TD for the miracle cover, and Week 4 at the Buccaneers). And here we go again. The defending Super Bowl champion Eagles certainly know how to win (and cover), but I’m fading them here with a Broncos team that is better than its 2-2 record. They played their first complete game in a 28-3 rout of the Bengals on Monday night.
I would say I love getting the hook at +3.5, but I’m calling for the outright upset here as the Eagles aren’t a 4-0 team either as they’re No. 30 in total offense at just 251.5 yards per game and No. 22 in total defense. I’m not saying they’re doing it with mirrors … but gimme +175 on the money line as well.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Broncos +3.5 (pool play: Broncos 65/35 in ATS contests, but Eagles 60/40 in SU pools).
Houston (-1/-1.5) at Baltimore
Tuley’s Take: The Lamar Jackson injury certainly has changed this game. The Ravens were -10 on the advance line last week, but now the Texans are a short favorite. I understand the move due to the downgrade from Jackson to Cooper Rush, plus defensive injuries for the 1-3 Ravens. However, Rush is a capable backup that John Harbaugh will put in position to succeed, plus I wouldn’t count on the Texans winning another rout like they did in beating the Titans 26-0 for their first win of the season (and don’t forget that was only 6-0 at halftime). So add the Ravens to the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, but only if you can get +7.5 at not-outrageous juice. Note for newbies: the -1/-1.5 in this game’s header is because books are split on this line as of deadline.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Ravens +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers or pass (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).
Tennessee at Arizona (-7.5)
Tuley’s Take: This is the first of the Sunday afternoon games, and the one that will probably be getting the least eyeballs (except for Survivor players using the Cardinals if they haven’t used them already). The Titans covered at +9 in Cam Ward’s Week 1 debut in a 20-12 loss at Denver, but haven’t been close since at +5.5, +6 and +7. I’m not tempted to take them here either. In fact, this is one of my favorites in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Cardinals -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Tampa Bay at Seattle (-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Seahawks -1.5 before they beat the Cardinals 23-20 last Thursday and the Buccaneers lost 31-25 vs. the Eagles on Sunday. I marked down the Bucs as a potential teaser play when the line reopened -2.5 on Sunday afternoon, but with the move past the key number of 3 to give us the hook at +3.5, I’m fully on the Bucs here. I guess the market likes that the Seahawks have bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the 49ers by winning three straight games, plus they have extra rest from playing last Thursday, but I still have Tampa Bay as the better team.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5 (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Seahawks 67/33 in SU pools).
Detroit (-10) at Cincinnati
Tuley’s Take: This line continues to climb as the Lions were -7.5 on the advance line last week, reopened -8.5 on Sunday afternoon and now up to -10 (with BetMGM and William Hill books here in Nevada already at 10.5). The Lions have bounced back from their Week 1 loss at the Packers, while the Bengals have been outscored 76-13 in Jake Browning’s two starts since Joe Burrow was injured, but this is still the NF,L even if parity doesn’t seem as prevalent as it used to be. I know I need to “plug my nose,” but gimme the first double-digit home dog of the season (FYI: road DD dogs are 2-2 ATS).
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Bengals +10 (pool play: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions 85/15 in SU pools).
Washington at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Chargers -1.5, and I’m a little surprised that it reopened at -3 considering the Giants upset them 21-18 on Sunday. The Commanders also lost, 34-27, but that was with QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin sidelined and Marcus Mariota and the offense still put up 27 points. The line has settled at 2.5 for the most part (some books still at 3), so with Daniels expected to return we expect Washington to be able to trade scores with the Chargers and keep this a one-score game.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Commanders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
New England at Buffalo (-8)
Tuley’s Take: The Bills were -10 on the advance line last week before winning 31-19 (but not covering after closing as 14.5-point home favorites) over the Saints and the Patriots routed the Panthers 42-13. I wasn’t surprised to see the line reopen Bills -9.5 and the market bet the Patriots down to +8. I still think that’s the right side at anything more than a TD. The Bills are undefeated at 4-0, but they also failed to cover in their 31-21 win vs. the Dolphins in Week 3. The Patriots are certainly improved under Mike Vrabel while the Bills will certainly be content winning by just a FG or TD as it would give them a three-game lead in the AFC East. So, Patriots +8 is the play for me, plus I’ll also include the Bills to anchor my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with hopefully several live tickets heading into Sunday night.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Patriots +8, plus Bills -2 in 2-team, 6-point teasers shooting for a middle (pool play: Patriots 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bills 80/20 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Kansas City (-3/-3.5) at Jacksonville
Tuley’s Take: The line for the Monday nighter has pretty much been at 3.5 with a few books dipping to 3 (including Circa at Chiefs -3 -120 as of deadline on Wednesday afternoon). The Chiefs have rebounded from an 0-2 start by beating the Giants and Ravens, but are clearly not playing as well as we’re used to seeing (and longtime readers know I love to fade them anyway, as they tend to let teams stick around even if they end up winning, leaving room for our dogs to still cover). The Jaguars look capable of doing just that off their 3-1 start. They beat the Panthers as expected in Week 1 and should have beaten the Bengals in Week 2. They’ve bounced back nicely with solid wins over the Texans and 49ers.
NFL Week 5 Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at only +3, but Chiefs still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 5 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 5 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
