Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

It’s time for our NFL Week 6 best bets. It wasn’t much fun in the Tuley’s Takes home office during NFL Week 5 as favorites went 11-3 straight-up and 10-4 ATS last weekend. Longtime readers know that I often warn that league-wide trends (in all sports) will eventually reverse – which is why we continue to be selective with our “dog or pass approach” to try to find the strongest plays each week, but it didn’t help this time as we only went 1-4 ATS with our ATS Best Bets with only a win on the Texans +1 vs. the Bills but losses on Jets +2.5, Browns +3, Rams +3.5 and Saints +5.5. That drops our overall season record here to 17-12 ATS (58.6%), which if you had said that would be my record after five weeks, I would have gladly taken it, so I’m not going to whine too much.

Besides, our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” saved our bankroll as we won the vast majority of our 2-team, 6-point teasers as the legs with Bucs +8.5, Jets +8.5, Bengals +8.5, Colts +8.5 and Cowboys +8.5 while only teasers using Raiders +8.5 lost.

 

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(Sidebar: we kinda foretold what could happen last week in the intro – and we were glad Bill Adee quoted it in the VSiN daily morning newsletter: “We have a couple of things working against us this week in trying to find five live underdog for our contest plays as well as overall bets: 1) we only have 14 games to choose from as four teams (Eagles, Lions, Chargers, Titans) have byes, and 2) the lines are so depressed with everyone looking for live dogs that we’re not getting many points to raise our chances of covering in SU losses. Tuley Noted: with the lower spreads, this looks like another prime week for dog teasers.”

Enough looking back. Let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 6. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMAZON)

This is nothing new (as TV football broadcasters are notoriously front-runners), but I’m so tired of announcers gushing about the favorite all game long, even when it’s obvious to everyone that the underdog is in the game the whole way and doesn’t get any credit until the end (when the announcers actually sound surprised that the game didn’t go as they expected). Anyway, that’s never more true in the NFL than with the Chiefs and these 49ers. Well, Ravens and others, too, but let’s focus on the 49ers underachieving at 2-3 and also 2-3 ATS for our purposes here. Yet, they’re favored by more than a field goal here on the road. 

Regular readers know I don’t put too much stock in home-field advantage (and road teams are 40-24-2 ATS, 54.1%), but Thursday night dogs are 4-1 ATS, including the only underdog, the Giants +5.5, covering two weeks ago in a 20-15 loss vs. the Cowboys. Give me the live home dog that has actually been playing better than the favorite despite their 29-20 loss vs. the Giants on Sunday.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Seahawks +3.5 (pool play: Seahawks 60/40 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears (-2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET – London, England (NFL)

Set those alarms early again as we have another London game this Sunday with the Bears favored over the Jaguars. The Bears’ offense got well against the Panthers on Sunday, but I’m still confident the Jaguars can keep this close (and they were actually favored all summer long on the pre-season lines). At +2.5, that puts them in the “teaser zone,” as we can move the line through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to +8.5 to lead off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.” Other Week 6 plays are the Texans -1 (though we prefer using dogs), Eagles -8.5 vs. Browns (ditto), Titans +7 vs. Colts and Jets +8.5 vs. Bills on Monday Night Football.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Jaguars +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bears 60/40 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Hey, we’re all still learning every week, right? It’s important to learn from our mistakes and move forward. I loved the Commanders in Weeks 3 and 4, and they upset the Bengals and Cardinals for us, but then I faded them last week with the Browns +3 and got burned. I should have recognized that the line move was justified and passed on the game instead of going against Washington (which is now 4-1 ATS, second best to the 5-0 Vikings). Fortunately, they’re back to dogs this week, and I can jump back on them. I wish I had bet them +7 on the advance line last week, but I’m fine with the adjustment to +6.5 and definitely see this coming down to a field goal either way, though certainly will be cheering for the outright upset at +240 or better.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Commanders +6.5 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools).

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-5)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Cardinals followed up their ugly 42-14 home loss to the Commanders by going on the road and upsetting the 49ers 24-23. It’s tempting to take them as dogs here, but which team is going to show up? And do we trust them to have back-to-back performances like that on the road? Soft pass, as this is the type of dog I sometimes talk myself into by the weekend, though I have enough dogs I like in Week 6 that they probably won’t sneak into any of my big contest plays.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Packers 67/33 in SU pools).

Houston Texans (-7) at New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Longtime readers know I love home underdogs, but they’re not the automatic play they used to be as the lines have gotten sharp, and even squares sometimes help in betting the line down further. In fact, NFL dogs are only 9-10-1 ATS this season after going 0-3 ATS last weekend, so it’s easy to pass when I don’t feel I’m getting enough points. Still, I would probably be on the Patriots here if not going to rookie QB Drake Maye, so let’s just tease the Texans down, as we just need them to win straight-up.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Texans -1 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, higher if offered -6.5, and 80/20 in SU pools).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Bucs fell into a tie for first place in the NFC South with their 36-30 OT loss in Atlanta last Thursday, while the Saints stayed a game back with their loss in Kansas City on Monday night in which they also lost starting QB Derek Carr. The advance line for this game before those results was Saints -2.5, but now it’s Bucs -3.5. I would usually jump all over the dog, but I’m backing off (just like with the Pats above) as the Saints are going to either Spencer Rattler or Jake Haener. I’m OK with either, but not in their first NFL start.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Buccaneers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

1:00  p.m. ET (FOX)

Sweating my Browns +3 bet last Sunday in the 34-13 loss at the Commanders (hey, it was a swear for nearly the first half as they only trailed 10-3 until 3:11 before halftime), I was reminded of a few years ago when the wise guys were on the Browns nearly every week and they failed to cover over and over. It would be a typical “plug-your-nose” dog bet for yours truly, but I can’t do it again. Hard pass; and as posted above, we’re teasing the Eagles down through the TD and FG.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Eagles -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and at least 90/10 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts (-1) at Tennessee Titans

1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The last time we saw the Titans, they were routing the Dolphins 31-12 in Week 4 before their bye week. Meanwhile, the Colts suffered a tough 37-34 loss at the Jaguars. This game is a coin-flip (and the Westgate actually opened it at pick-’em on Sunday afternoon before the Colts were bet to favoritism). Anthony Richardson is still recovering from his oblique injury (and practiced Wednesday), but we don’t expect the line to move much as Joe Flacco has filled in nicely. In what should be a close game, we’ll tease up the Titans to +7, though monitor the market in case it rises, especially if Richardson returns.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Titans +7 or more in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Moving to the “afternoon” games (kickoffs in the 1 p.m. PT hour here in Vegas), we’re digging these 6/4 splits on Sunday schedule with the bye weeks and early London game. The advance line was Chargers -2.5 before their bye week and the Broncos routing the Raiders 34-18. It makes sense to me that the line reopened Chargers -2, but can someone explain why this has steamed to -3 (though I do know bettors usually like to back teams off their bye week, assuming they’ll be healthy and better prepared). Hey, I’m not complaining. I’ll take the insurance of a push on a field goal with a Denver team that continues to play well and is 4-1 ATS.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Broncos +3 (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, lower at 2.5, but Chargers 55/45 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Here we have another 3-point home underdog, but I’m less confident in taking the Raiders (see that Raiders-Broncos game on Sunday for all you need to know), especially as the wheels appear to be coming off in Vegas with All-Pro WR Davante Adams wanting a trade plus a QB controversy between Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Carolina Panthers

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Panthers were starting to look like a playable underdog with Andy Dalton taking over at QB and upsetting the Raiders and playing well against the Bengals, but nothing went right in their 36-10 loss at the Bears on Sunda, and I don’t think we’re getting enough points against a Falcons teams coming off a thrilling 36-30 OT win last Thursday with extra days of rest.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Detroit Lions (-3/-3.5) at Dallas Cowboys

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

I don’t know why so many people were down on the Cowboys heading into the season (I have them at 20-1 to win the Super Bowl that I gave out here at VSiN.com back in February and they’re still around the same price), but that’s fine with me as we’re getting points with them again here. We closed our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with them on Sunday night, though I wish I had subbed out one of my losing plays for them in their 20-17 upset at the Steelers. This line hasn’t settled yet as the -3/-3.5 in the header means that several books are offering each, though usually -120 on the side you want. I’d LOVE to get the hook at +3.5, but still a play at 3..

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Cowboys +3 or higher (pool play: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, though Lions still 60/40 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at New York Giants

8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The other underdog that I feel got away last weekend was the Giants +6.5 at the Seahawks as they pulled the 29-20 road upset and eliminated another 160 in Circa Survivor. Wish I had seen that coming, as I usually take pride in finding the biggest upset most weeks. Anyway, I’m jumping on the bandwagon (as it seems many people are as this line has been bet down from +5.5 on the advance line to +3.5. The Bengals lost 41-38 in OT vs. the Ravens, but I think they are clearly hitting their stride after their normal slow start, so I’m not fading them here with the short line.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Jets fired coach Robert Saleh after losing 23-17 to the Vikings in London. I’m sure there are people fading them as they don’t have a bye after the overseas round-trip and the disarray of the coaching change; however, we often see teams get a spark from a midseason change like this (in all sports) as the players are out to prove it wasn’t their fault to get off to a slow start. I already tabbed the Jets to close out our teasers, but I’m also calling for the minor outright upset to move into a tie for first place in the AFC East with a Bills team that isn’t as good as recent years.

NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Jets +2.5 plus +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 60/40 in all SU & ATS contests).

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