Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 6:
We’re still getting over how exciting NFL Week 5 was in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Regular readers know about our “dog or pass” philosophy, and it served us well in going 5-2 ATS with our Best Bets here with the 49ers +8 over the Rams on Thursday; Broncos +3.5 at Eagles, Buccaneers +3.5 at Seahawks, and Patriots +7.5 at Bills on Sunday; and Jaguars +3.5 vs. Chiefs on Monday night. All five not only covered but pulled outright upsets; of course, it also helped that underdogs went 9-5 straight-up and against the spread in Week 5 for the first time since 2017 (and we’re not even going to get into the carnage that caused in Survivor pools!).
My losses were on the Raiders +7 at the Colts and Bengals +10 vs. the Lions, but we improved to a respectable and profitable 14-12 ATS on the young season.
Faves and dogs are 38-38 ATS overall, according to my ViewFromVegas Consensus Closing Lines, so it’s a pretty level playing field, so the goal obviously is to find the right dogs.
Let’s get to this week’s 15-game card (Vikings and Texans are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play—or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “pool play” strategy for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Philadelphia (-7/-7.5) at New York Giants
Tuley’s Take: Thursday Night Football has been good to us here as we’re 3-1 ATS with wins on the Cowboys in Week 1, Dolphins in Week 3 and 49ers in Week 5 with the lone loss on the Commanders in Week 2 (we officially passed in Week 4, but suggested teasing the underdog – started with Seahawks, flipped to Cardinals – and both sides hit). For our newbies, the -7/-7.5 in the header means that some books are at -7 and some at -7.5 and mostly charging added juice on the side you want. My initial thought was to pass even with the Giants as a divisional home dog of more than a TD (especially after losing 26-14 at the lowly Saints), but the more I’ve thought about it, the more I like them in this spot. I actually think they stupidly went to New Orleans overconfident after upsetting the Chargers 21-14 in Jaxson Dart’s first start. Hopefully, losing to the Saints re-focused them, and they play the Eagles like they did against the Chargers.
For longtime readers of mine, this is also an “anti-swagger” play against the defending champions, who suffered their first loss to the Broncos on Sunday to snap a four-game winning streak to start the season and a 10-year winning streak overall, including their Super Bowl run. The conventional wisdom out there is that the Eagles will bounce back from the loss and that cream rises to the top with the better team being helped by the short week, but I actually believe the short week does the opposite, leveling the playing field for the underdog (as we’ve seen so far this season).
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Giants +7.5, or still +7 if that’s all you can get (pool play: Giants 67/33 in rare ATS contests using TNF, lower at 7, but Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Denver (-7/-7.5) vs. New York Jets
London, England
Tuley’s Take: Set your alarm early again for another international game as the Broncos face the Jets in London. The advance line for this game was Broncos -6.5 last week before the Jets lost 37-22 vs. the Cowboys and the Broncos upset the Eagles 21-17. The Broncos reopened -7 and now it’s another split line of -7/-7.5 (see above). I was proud to avoid the steam on the Jets +2.5 as they closed as short favorites, though I did lose with them on teasers as those points weren’t enough. I believe the best way to play this game is to tease the Broncos down to -1/-1.5 and start our weekly Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio (unless you want to start with the Eagles -1/-1.5 on TNF). The other Week 6 games in our “teaser zone” are the Rams -1.5 at the Ravens, Seahawks +7.5 at Jaguars and Lions +8.5 at Chiefs. As always, shop around for the lowest juice you can find (as well as the most advantageous spreads).
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Broncos -1 or -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: This is an odd scheduling spot for both teams as the Steelers are coming off their early bye week, while the Browns were in London this past Sunday and are playing this upcoming Sunday without a bye. The Browns were also in the news for trading starting QB Joe Flacco to Cincinnati and looking to the future with their two rookie QBs, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders. There are too many things working against the Browns, plus this number seems short due to all those factors, so I’m invoking the “pass” part of dog or pass and looking elsewhere.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Arizona at Indianapolis (-7)
Tuley’s Take: This is where the Week 5 carnage in Circa Survivor has to go. After a week-high 3,524 were eliminated by the Rams on Thursday Night Football, the Cardinals, the No. 2 choice by 3,152 live entries, went down in flames on Sunday afternoon with an all-timer of a bad beat. The irony here is that the Colts were the No. 3 pick and a lot had their choice of two teams. Now, you ask, what does all that have to do with this week? Well, the advance line for this game was Colts -3.5 and re-opened Colts -4.5 after those games played out Sunday. It steadily climbed early this week and has reached -7 as of this writing on Wednesday afternoon. I can’t get in the head of every bettor driving this line upward, but I’m sure many are fading the Cardinals after the way they pissed away their game to the lowly Titans. But we always try to avoid those knee-jerk reactions and handicap the game on the matchup of the two teams. We can’t help feeling this line is overadjusted with big value on the Cards plus a TD.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Cardinals +7 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if +7.5, but Colts still 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Baltimore
Tuley’s Take: The Ravens (1-4 and tied with the Browns at the bottom of the AFC North) are in danger of a lost season after getting blown out 38-20 by the Chiefs two weeks ago after Lamar Jackson went down and then getting routed even worse, 44-10, by the Texans. With the books dealing Rams -7.5, it’s looking more and more like Jackson is going to be replaced by Cooper Rush again, so he gets more recovery time before their bye week (I can’t imagine the books offering Ravens +7.5 if there was any chance they thought Jackson would still suit up). I’m kinda tempted to take the Ravens anyway at more than a TD, but feel the better bet is using the Rams in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Rams -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Ravens 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Rams 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle at Jacksonville (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: I completed my 5-2 ATS week with the Jaguars’ upset of the Chiefs on Monday night, but I actually came away with more respect for the Seahawks even though I cashed against them with the Buccaneers on Sunday. This is a non-conference battle between two likely playoff teams and looks like a coin flip. I don’t expect this to be a blowout either way, so teasing the Seahawks over a TD is the play (the line is too short for me to take a 50/50 shot).
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Seahawks +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).
Dallas (-3) at Carolina
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Cowboys -3.5 before they beat the Jets 37-22, and the Panthers rallied to upset the Dolphins 27-24. It reopened -3.5 and mostly wavered at -3/-3.5 for the first part of the week before settling at 3. I have the Cowboys power-rated ahead of the Panthers, so I get them favored on the road, but the gap is closing. I might add the Panthers as a dog play if the line gets back to +3.5 -110, but for now I’m sticking with my stronger plays.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass, or Panthers +3.5 over the weekend (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Cowboys 65/35 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers (-4) at Miami
Tuley’s Take: The Chargers come into this game tied for the AFC West lead with the Broncos at 3-2. They definitely need to keep winning to hold off the Broncos as well as the Chiefs if they turn their season around. The Dolphins showed some life by covering in their Week 3 loss at the Bills and beating the Jets in Week 3, but then they couldn’t even beat the Panthers this past Sunday, so this line is too short for me.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
San Francisco at Tampa Bay (-3)
Tuley’s Take: Both teams came through for me with their outright upsets in Week 5, so it’s hard to go against either, especially since the line is so spot-on. I considered using the 49ers in 6-point teasers, but I’m not a big fan of teasing up to +9 as you’re basically paying for a half-point you don’t need (and there is a difference between a team the oddsmakers made -2.5 or the full -3, so I usually stay away).
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Buccaneers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Tennessee at Las Vegas (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: This dud on the Week 6 schedule is only getting attention because the Titans got their first win of the season against the Cardinals. The advance line was Raiders -6.5 and reopened between -6 and -6.5 on Sunday afternoon before getting adjusted down to 4.5. That’s too short for me, even though it is tempting to fade the Raiders, who have lost four straight since beating the Patriots in their opener and shouldn’t be favored by more than a field goal against anyone. I really wish I could pull the trigger, but the fact remains that the Titans didn’t win that game in Arizona as much as the Cardinals gave it to them (stupid dropping ball at 1-yard line going in for TD and a 28-6 lead, intercepting a pass and fumbling it untouched for a gift Tennessee TD, etc.). The Raiders are bad, but not that bad.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Titans 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Raiders 65/35 in SU pools).
New England (-3.5) at New Orleans
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Patriots -3.5, and it has stayed right there after the Saints beat the Giants on Sunday and the Patriots upset the Bills on Sunday night. Like the Titans, the Saints’ win was also more of a loss by the Giants, so I’m not upgrading them too much. Even though New Orleans is getting more than a field goal at home, it’s still too short for me while also being too high to be in the teaser zone.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Cincinnati at Green Bay (-14)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Packers -13.5 with them on their bye week and adjusted to two full TDs after the Bengals lost 37-24 vs. the Lions. The Bengals traded for Joe Flacco, and the line hasn’t budged, but I think that’s because everyone is throwing Cincy under the bus without Joe Burrow. I’m not saying Flacco is the Second Coming, but he can resurrect the Bengals’ hopes in the AFC North. Yes, I know they still have a sieve-like offensive line, but I’m sure Zac Taylor will put Flacco into the best position to succeed with short timing passes. I’m certainly not calling for the outright upset, but two TDs is too much to pass up, even though double-digit dogs are just 2-2 ATS this season.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Bengals +14 or higher (pool play: Bengals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still 90/10 in SU pools).
Detroit at Kansas City (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: The last two Sunday nighters (Packers-Cowboys 40-40 in Week 3 and Patriots’ 23-20 upset at Bills in Week 4) have been more competitive than expected, but now we get a barn-burner with the Lions visiting the Chiefs in what, before the season, a lot of people would have billed as a Super Bowl preview. The Lions (4-1) have turned around their season with four straight wins after losing their opener at the Packers, while the Chiefs (2-3) had a much-needed win in Week 4 vs. the Ravens but lost Monday night in Jacksonville. The Chiefs usually play close games before pulling them out, so I fully expect this to be a one-score game that goes down to the final gun, so teasing the Lions over a TD is the play.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Lions in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chiefs 55/45 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Buffalo (-4.5) at Atlanta
Tuley’s Take: We get a MNF doubleheader this week, starting with this matchup, which was Bills -5 on the advance line and only ticked down half a point after their 23-20 loss vs. the Patriots and the Falcons on a bye. While I was proud to be on the Patriots as live divisional dogs vs. these Bills, I’m not as confident with the Falcons being able to match them score for score. The last time we saw the Falcons, they were beating the undermanned Commanders in Week 4, and this is a much bigger ask, plus this line is too short for me.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).
Chicago at Washington (-4.5)
Tuley’s Take: The Bears have revenge for this game from losing to Jayden Daniels’ Hail Mary TD pass that sent them spiraling from a 4-2 record to a 10-game losing streak that didn’t end until the final game of the season. Still, that’s not enough to back them here with Daniels healthy again and coming off an impressive 27-10 upset at the Chargers. The Bears have to show me more than they did in their narrow 25-24 win at the Raiders before their bye.
NFL Week 6 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
For more Week 6 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 6 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
