Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 7 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

It’s time for the NFL Week 7 best bets! We thought NFL Week 5 was rough for underdog bettors here in Tuley’s Takes office, when favorites went 11-3 straight-up and 10-4 ATS, but it was even worse in Week 6 when they went 12-2 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. My “dog or pass” plays didn’t stand a chance, and this dog wore the collar at 0-5 ATS with losses by Seahawks +3.5 vs. 49ers, Commanders +6.5 at Ravens (though late followers coulda pushed on +7, as we often get an extra half-point by the weekends with this Wednesday column), Broncos +3 vs. Chargers, Cowboys +3 vs. Lions and Jets +2.5 vs. Bills.

That drops our official Best Bet record here to just 17-17 ATS, as we’ve given back our early profits. My wife usually doesn’t follow how my picks are going and rarely asks (and I’m usually a “don’t get too high when you win, don’t get too low when you lose” kinda gambler), but obviously, she could tell I was down after the Jets loss on Monday Night Football. I told her how the chalk has kicked my ass the last two NFL weekends, and she said: “Hey, they sometimes do that; the favorites are the favorites after all. I’ve read that before from some sports betting writer named Dave Tuley.”

 

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That was nice of her to say, but then she said something to really lift my spirits. “He also taught me that if the chalk bettors didn’t win sometimes, they would stop betting that way, and all the usual value on the underdogs would disappear.” So, there. She also helped write the intro this week.

I even wrote last week how “league-wide trends (in all sports” will eventually reverse,” so we were prepared for a reversal of fortune and just didn’t expect it to be so sudden and hoped that by continuing to be selective and play only the strongest dogs that we would minimize the damage. I guess the moral is to get back on that horse, trust the process, and all those other platitudes.

Having said all that, let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 7. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also do a patent-pending “pool play percentage” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game. I also give my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers, which is fortunate as they saved my bankroll last weekend. They went 5-0, and I hit on all my combinations with Jaguars +8.5, Texans -1 (yes, fortunately, included some faves in these as I was afraid it could be a chalky week), Eagles -2.5, Titans +7 (mid-week line of +1, which flipped to -2.5, but those who went with Colts +8.5 also cashed) and Jets +8.5. 

Denver Broncos (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (AMZN)

The advance line on this Thursday night matchup was Saints -2.5 last week before both lost on Sunday. With the change of favorites, it appears oddsmakers have downgraded the Saints more with the move to rookie QB Spencer Rattler. Both these teams have been tough to figure out this year, but I think this has been overadjusted as I have it a pick-’em. I’m not willing to take the Saints now as short dogs, but I believe teasing them to +8.5 to capture the key numbers of 3 and 7 is a perfect way to kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” this week, as this should be a one-score game. We’ll use this as the first leg in 2-team, 6-point teasers to Seahawks +8.5 or +9 at Falcons, Lions +7.5 at Vikings, Steelers +8 vs. Jets and Cardinals +8.5 vs. Chargers. For chalk bettors, I’d also use Commanders -2 vs. Panthers.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Saints +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Saints 55/45 in my rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Broncos 55/45 in SU pools).

New England Patriots vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL) – London, England

The Jaguars were routed 35-16 by the Bears last Sunday in London and stay there for a second straight game, so I guess that’s some sort of home-field advantage as this line has gone from Jacksonville -3.5 to -5.5 despite the ugly loss. Though that probably has more to do with the Patriots’ 41-21 home loss to the Texans in Drake Maye’s first start. Maybe Maye does better against the Jaguars’ No. 31-ranked defense (allowing 390 yards per game), but New England is No. 25, with the Jacksonville offense having more upside, so I’ll pass.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

It’s only Week 7 and this is a non-divisional game, but I could argue it could be very important in the NFC wild-card race with the Falcons at 4-2 and Seahawks at 3-3 (plus the inherent tiebreaking consequences). For the uninitiated, the -2.5/-3 line means that some books are at each number as the market hasn’t settled yet – and usually, you need to lay -120 on the side you like. Despite pulling away to beat the Panthers 38-20 on Sunday, the Falcons usually play close games (I feel like I see Atlanta’s Younghoe Koo warming up for go-ahead or game-tying field goals more than any other kicker) and this should be no different, so let’s tease the Falcons up over a TD (this would lead off a new set of teasers IF the Saints’ teaser leg doesn’t hit Thursday night, but obviously we hope this closes out our first winning combo).

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Seahawks +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-9.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

The advance line on this game was Bills  -8.5 before the Titans lost 20-17 to the Colts and the Bills beat the Jets 23-20 on Monday Night Football to open up their lead in the AFC East. That has pushed this line to -9.5 and could be heading to 10 (see what I wrote in the intro about waiting to bet some of my dogs until the weekend). While it’s clear the Bills are playing better right now, the Titans aren’t as bad as their 1-4 record as four of those losses are by a touchdown or less. Will Levis is still going through growing pains, but the Titans should be able to stay within a TD this time. The Bills will be content to get another win. I usually prefer when I have an underdog that has a better chance at the outright upset instead of just counting on the ATS cover, but this is probably my favorite dog of the week regardless.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Titans +9.5 or higher (pool play: Titans 67/33 in ATS contests, but Bills still 90/10 in SU pools).

Cincinnati Bengals  (-6) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (NBC)

The Bengals were -3.5 on the advance line last week before the Browns lost only 20-16 at the Eagles, covering as 8.5-point road dogs, and then the Bengals beat the Giants 17-7 on Sunday Night Football, covering as 4-point road faves on a late “meaningless” TD. Those kind of results would usually result in a line dropping, but it actually re-opened Bengals -4.5 and was up to -6.5 when I started this column. I would usually love to grab a home divisional dog like this, but even though I kicked myself for passing on the Browns last week, I can’t pull the trigger here, especially with the line dropping to 6 and even 5.5 at some books as I’m finishing this on Wednesday afternoon.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-2.5/-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (CBS)

Now here’s a line move I can fade! The Packers were -1.5 on the advance line before both teams won easily in Week 6 – Texans 41-21 at the Patriots and Packers 34-13 vs. the Cardinals. That would usually keep a line the same, but it’s a field goal at a lot of books, with others at 2.5. Regular readers know I have the Texans as my 22-1 value play to win the Super Bowl, so I have to continue to ride them here. Besides, I’ll still take CJ Stroud over Jordan Love in a game that should be closer to pick ’em (my power rankings have the Texans -2).

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Texans +3 or even +2.5 (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if offered +3 or +3.5, but Packers 60/40 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Tyler Huntley starting over Sklar Thompson for the Dolphins. Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco for the Colts. It sounds about right for the Colts to be -3, and I have no interest in backing the Dolphins until Tua Tagovailoa returns.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Remember when the Vikings went 13-4 in 2022 by winning all their one-score (and they got unceremoniously ousted by the Giants in the wild-card round)? Well, I’m not going to say they’re “doing it with mirrors” again, as they’ve earned their 5-0 start with solid play, but I still consider the Lions the better overall team. Don’t be surprised if I end up using the Lions in the Circa Sports Million or Westgate SuperContest, especially if I don’t get a line I’m looking for with one of my other five dogs this week, but the no-brainer play is to tease them through the key numbers of 3 and 7 in this divisional rivalry game.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Lions +7.5 or better in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings still 55/45 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles (-3/-3.5) at New York Giants

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

The advance line for this game was Eagles -4 before they returned from their bye to beat the Browns 20-16, failing to cover as 8.5-point home faves. But anyone who watched the games (including nearly half the remaining Circa Survivor entries with the Eagles) knew they were in control and about to go up 13-3 late in the first half when the Browns blocked a field goal attempt and returned it for a touchdown to make it 10-10. The Giants had an unluckier non-cover on Sunday night vs. the Bengals, so I guess I understand this line dipping to -3/-3.5, but it does keep me off the dog at the short number.  

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

I’m guessing the books are expecting the winning chalk bettors from last week to load up on the faves again this week, as this line has gone from Rams -3 to -6.5. I know the Raiders are in disarray after losing their best player, WR Davante Adams, and the old adage “if you have two starting quarterbacks, you have zero” applies to them with Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew. But that still doesn’t mean the Rams, who certainly have their own issues that won’t all be solved by their bye week, should be favored by nearly a full TD. I’m waiting to see if I can get +7 but won’t pass if I don’t.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Raiders +6.5 or better (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, but Rams still 70/30 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Washington Commanders (-8)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Panthers haven’t been able to duplicate their 36-22 win at the Raiders in Week 3 as they’ve been dominated the last three games, but they’re still more dangerous with Andy Dalton at QB and should be able to stay close to the Commanders. I’ve gotten on the Washington bandwagon as underdogs (though they weren’t able to cover for me vs. the Ravens on Sunday (losing +6.5 here and with my major contest plays), but I’m certainly not afraid to fade them in the still unfamiliar role of favorite. Especially laying more than a TD.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Panthers +8 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Commanders still 80/20 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs at San Francisco 49ers (-1)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

This Super Bowl rematch is such a big game that it’s the only 4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. kickoff on Sunday, with just two other afternoon games on the schedule. As regular readers know, I’m fine with fading the Chiefs when they’re favored. They always seem to let teams stick around even if they win in the end, but I can’t pass them up as rare underdogs here. Yes, I feel like a square saying that, but they’re still the better team, and a narrow win is good enough for us here. Let it be Tuley Noted that I’m also on board with using them in my Teaser Portfolio.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Chiefs +1 (pool play: Chiefs 67/33 in all SU & ATS contests).

New York Jets (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

The advance line for this game was Steelers -1 before they ran over the Raiders 32-13, and the Jets lost 23-20 vs. the Bills on Monday Night Football. I don’t see how that warrants the line flipping to Jets -2 (is this the books downgrading the Steelers for the move from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson?), but I’m not high enough on the Steelers to take the short line and instead just using in teasers as this looks like another one-score game that suits our Teasers to a T.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Steelers +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contest, but Jets still 60/40 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Both teams are 4-2 and tied for first place in their respective divisions, so the early game in the Monday Night Football doubleheader is the marquee game of the week in my mind. The Buccaneers have exceeded expectations. Baker Mayfield is leading an offense that can match the Ravens score for score. The Ravens have the No. 1 offense at 453.7 yards per game (the Buccaneers are No. 9 at 367.2), but the Bucs actually outscore them 29.7 points per game to 29.5, so this should be a shootout. This could very well come down to a field goal, so the hook at +3.5 is a take.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5 (pool play: Buccaneers 65/35 in ATS contests, though Ravens 60/40 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Monday, 9:00 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

It’s a little puzzling why this was chosen as a Monday Night Football twinbill nightcap (and maybe it’s just an experiment to see how many go out of their way to watch on ESPN+), but hey, it’s an NFL game, so we’re going to handicap it like any other. The advance line was pick ’em before Arizona was blown out 34-13 at Green Bay and San Diego (er, I mean, Los Angeles … that’s still hard not to make that mistake) beat Denver 23-16, so the line move makes sense but just gives us the added cushion necessary to tease the underdog Cardinals through the FG and TD to +8.5.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Cardinals +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 7 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 7 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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