Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 7:
We’re one-third of the way through the NFL season (six of the 18-week schedule), and we feel like we’re in midseason form in the Tuley’s Takes home office.
We had another winning week in Week 6 as our Best Bets went 3-0 ATS on the short 14-game card with the Giants +7.5 on Thursday Night Football in their 34-17 outright upset vs. the Eagles, along with Cardinals +7 and Bengals +14 both covering in their 31-14 and 27-18 losses at the Colts and Packers, disrespectively. I also wrote in last Wednesday’s “takes” that I would grab the Panthers +3.5 if the line went up vs. the Cowboys. It didn’t, as it stayed a solid 3 through the weekend, so I don’t mind counting it in my record here, though I did use them in my Pick 5 contests in the Circa Sports Million (8-2 through two weeks of the 2nd Quarter contest) and Westgate SuperContest.
Our official published record stands at 17-12 ATS (58.6%). Our recommended “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” returned to profitability with our short list of Broncos -1.5 vs. Jets in London, Rams -1.5 at Ravens, Seahawks +7.5 at Jaguars (if you got it before the change of favoritism) and Lions +8.5 at the Chiefs, with the Lions being the only loser.
But enough looking back. Let’s get to this week’s 15-game card (Ravens and Bills are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play, or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Pittsburgh (-5.5) at Cincinnati
Tuley’s Take: The Giants’ upset last Thursday improved us to 4-1 ATS in Thursday games this season (I passed on the Seahawks-Cardinals game in Week 4, though all teasers hit). I’m also feeling good about the Bengals after having them +14 at the Packers on Sunday. And I’m sure you’ve heard or read by now that underdogs are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven prime-time games overall. I’m sure everyone is expecting me to take the dog here, but I’m invoking the pass side of “dog or pass.”
Why? For starters, while the Bengals came through for me in Joe Flacco’s first start, I’m not willing to take them at the much shorter number here even as a divisional home dog. The Steelers are coming off a solid 23-9 win over the Browns and come in healthy and won’t take the Bengals lightly after seeing them give the Packers a game. This just looks like a similar game to last week for the Steelers, as they’re the better team on both sides of the ball and should grind out a comfortable win. Besides, I have plenty of other live dogs on the Sunday/Monday cards.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 60/40 in rare ATS contests that use TNF and 80/20 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Los Angeles Rams (-3) vs. Jacksonville
London, England
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this London game was Rams -2.5 last week before they beat the Ravens 17-3 and the Jaguars lost 20-12 vs. the Seahawks. The line has ticked up to a pretty solid 3, though some books are charging extra juice on the Jaguars +3, so it could dip back to 2.5. The Jags are tempting, but I’m not confident enough in them winning outright (and not always thrilled with counting on the push if they lose by a field goal—a refund isn’t enough of a consolation prize to risk losing).
Instead, let’s use this to start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio in 2-team, 6-point teasers by moving the line to +9 and certainly still acceptable at +8.5 if the spread does dip. As of this writing on Wednesday afternoon, we have several eligible teams in our “teaser zone” on Sunday where we can move the line and capture both the key numbers of 3 and 7: Dolphins +8.5 at Browns, Vikings +8 at Eagles, Jets +7.5 vs. Panthers, Colts +7.5 at Chargers, Cowboys +7.5 vs. Commanders, Falcons +8 at 49ers on SNF. Mix and match as you see fit and, as always, shop around for the lowest vig on teasers as well as the best lines.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Jaguars +9 or +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests, but Rams still 65/35 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at Kansas City (-11.5)
Tuley’s Take: Over the summer, this line was Chiefs -9.5 and increased to -10.5 on the advance line at the Westgate this past week before the Raiders beat the Titans 20-10 and the Chiefs beat the Lions 30-17. Granted, the Chiefs’ win was more impressive than the Raiders’ considering the opponents, but I don’t agree that the line should be raised even further. Eleven isn’t considered a key number; however, there does seem to be a lot of games that land at 11 at some point during games, so I’m certainly fading this move. The Raiders always get up for their divisional rival and usually keep it close, and regular readers know the Chiefs often let teams stick around before winning late but not by big margins (though we did lose our teasers on the Lions last Sunday).
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Raiders +11.5 (pool play: Raiders 67/33 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still 80/20 in SU pools).
Miami at Cleveland (-2.5)
Tuley’s Take: Both teams are 1-5 and have been tough to watch this season, so this could very well be the least-watched game of Week 7. After trading Flacco, the Browns are trying to move forward with rookie Dillon Gabriel (and only score 9 points vs. the Steelers), while the Dolphins came up short in a 29-27 loss at the Chargers and Tua Tagovailoa had to apologize for post-game comments that caused a rift in the locker room. I’ll still think the Dolphins are the right side here (and could argue they should be favored), but with the short number, I’ll just use them in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio to move the line up over a TD.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Dolphins +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests, but Browns 55/45 in SU pools).
New England (-7) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: Drake Maye is off to a great start in his second season and has the Patriots surprisingly tied for first place with the Bills at 4-2. However, the advance line for this game was Pats -6 last week before they beat the Saints 25-19 (not overly impressive) while the Titans lost 20-10 at the Raiders. I’m not sure that warranted a full 1-point bump to -7, so I’ll fade the move.
The Titans are 1-5 with the only win being the 22-21 win the Cardinals handed them two weeks ago. But they’ve been at least competitive and can keep this to a one-score game. In addition, Tennessee fired head coach Brian Callahan this week. I usually bet teams in this spot as the players usually respond to the change and want to impress the new staff or prove they weren’t the problem. Note: NFL teams with a mid-season coaching change are 17-16 SU and an even better 20-13 ATS (60.6%) the last 33 times this has happened, so it’s a winning system.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Titans +7 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if contest offers +7.5, but Patriots still 70/30 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Chicago (-5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Bears -6.5 last week and reopened -6 after the Saints’ competitive 25-19 loss vs the Patriots. Of course, the Bears played Monday night, but we saw it dip as low as Bears -4.5 during the day on Monday and has mostly settled at -5 after they upset the Commanders on MNF. The Bears have certainly turned their season around, so I’m not going to fade them with the Saints.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Philadelphia (-2) at Minnesota
Tuley’s Take: The Eagles were the NFL’s last undefeated team before losing 21-17 vs. Broncos in Week 5 and then, as the saying goes, “lost that game twice” as they followed up with a 34-17 loss at the Giants last Thursday that longtime readers know was a classic “anti-swagger” spot after having their 10-game winning streak snapped that went back to last December. They should get back to form now, but I’m still going to use the Vikings in teasers even though they still haven’t announced if J.J. McCarthy or Carson Wentz will be starting at QB (no big difference in my book).
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Vikings in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Carolina (-1.5) at New York Jets
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Jets -1 last week before they dropped to 0-6 with their 13-11 loss to the Broncos in London, and the Panthers upset the Cowboys 30-27. It’s no surprise that Carolina is now favored, but remember that the Panthers have turned into a team to back at home (especially as a dog) but one to fade on the road (0-3 SU already this season and 2-9 SU dating back to the start of last season). Even so, I’m not willing to trust a winless Jets team to beat anyone straight-up, so again plug them into teasers.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Jets in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests but Panthers still 55/45 in SU pools).
Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: The run of Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio plays continues with this first game in the rotation of afternoon games (4:05 p.m. Eastern Time/1:05 p.m. Vegas Time). This line between evenly matched first-place teams—Colts are 5-1, Chargers are 4-2—has been locked into Chargers -1.5 all week, with L.A. mostly just favored due to being at home. Again, give me the dog with the line moved up over a full TD.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Colts +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
New York Giants at Denver (-7)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was all the way up to Broncos -10 last week before the Giants upset the Eagles 34-17 on Thursday night and the Broncos escaped with a 13-11 win over the Jets in London on Sunday. The line reopened Broncos -7-5, which seemed appropriate, late Sunday afternoon and has since settled at 7. The Giants have won two straight with rookie QB Jaxson Dart as the whole team has improved after their 0-4 start, so I’m willing to take them again getting so many points (they were also touchdown underdogs vs. the Eagles). We’re also encouraged by the fact the Jets stayed close to them, plus Denver doesn’t get a bye week after the overseas trip.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Giants +7 (pool play: Giants 65/35 in ATS contests, but Broncos still 67/33 in SU pools).
Washington (-1.5) at Dallas
Tuley’s Take: Both these teams have been inconsistent this year—Commanders are 3-3, Cowboys are 2-3-1—losing games they should win or winning (or tying in the Cowboys’ case with the 40-40 tie in Week 4 vs. the Packers) games they’re supposed to lose. The loser probably can forget trying to catch the Eagles in the NFC East and fall further behind in the wild-card chase. Except for the Week 3 loss at the Bears, the Cowboys have been in every game, so I have no problem teasing them up over a TD.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Cowboys +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).
Green Bay (-6.5) at Arizona
Tuley’s Take: Last week, I had several friends tell me I was crazy for taking the Cardinals plus the points at the Colts after their epic collapse the week before vs. the Titans. That was especially true after Kyler Murray was declared out and the market kept raising the price to a closing of Colts -8. In my “takes” last week, I took the Cardinals +7 (and in the Circa and Westgate contests at the short number) and even wrote that I was fine if Jacoby Brissett got the start. I feel the same way here, especially after watching pretty much every play of my Bengals +14 bet and contest plays as the Packers only beat them 27-18 (and Cincy pulled within 6 points in the fourth quarter, causing a huge sweat from Survivor pool players). The Packers were overrated after starting 2-0 vs. the Lions and Commanders, losing to the Browns and tying the Cowboys. Gimme the live home dog even if Murray is unable to go again.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Cardinals +6.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but Packers still 67/33 in SU pools).
Atlanta at San Francisco (-2)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was 49ers -3 and reopened -3 after their 30-19 loss at the Buccaneers, but then dropped to -2 after the Falcons’ impressive 24-14 upset of the Bills on MNF. The Falcons return to prime time in the Sunday nighter this week. I was on the fence about taking them plus the short points, but this looks like a great anchor to our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, as it should be a one-score game.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Falcons +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Tampa Bay at Detroit (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers have been good to me, including two weeks ago in their road upset of the Seahawks, but I can’t pull the trigger on them in the first Monday night game. The Lions lost Sunday night at the Chiefs, but Dan Campbell usually gets them to bounce back off a loss (note: I know many people who downgraded them after the Week 1 loss in Green Bay, and they reeled off four straight wins and covers!. We’ll wait for the Monday nightcap.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Houston at Seattle (-3/-3.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Seahawks -2.5 last week with the Texans on their early bye and before the Seahawks beat the Jaguars 20-12. The line reopened Seahawks -3, and we saw some 3.5s pop up early in the week, but it has mostly settled back at 3 (note: some books were still dealing Texans +3.5 -120 as of late Wednesday afternoon). I love the Texans as a live road dog here (remember, Seattle’s 12th Man didn’t help in Week 1 vs. the 49ers or Week 5 vs. the Bucs as they’re 1-2 at home with the only win against the Saints. The Texans have also rebounded from an 0-3 start with 26-0 and 44-10 routs of the Titans and Ravens and should be fresh off their bye week.
NFL Week 7 Best Bet: Texans +3 or better (pool play: Texans 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if +3.5 available, but Seahawks still 60/40 in SU pools).
For more Week 7 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 7 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
