Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

After getting beat up by the favorites the prior two weeks, we stood our ground in the Tuley’s Takes home office in NFL Week 7 and avoided getting knocked out. And even came out ahead a little thanks to our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. I went 3-3 ATS with my posted Best Bets here with wins on the Texans +3, Raiders +6.5 and Chiefs +1, but losses on the Titans +9.5, Panthers +8 and Buccaneers +3.5.

That kept us trading money at .500 here at 19-19 ATS, but the TTF saved our assess as my recommended 2-team, 6-point underdog went 5-1 as we lost with the Saints +8.5 on Thursday Night Football, but then swept our Sunday/Monday plays with Seahawks +9, Lions +7.5, Chiefs +7.5, Steelers +8 and Cardinals +8.5 (note: all five didn’t even needed the added points as they all won outright!). I also had an unofficial chalk teaser recommendation on the Commanders -2 and any followers should have cashed with any of those combos (personally, I wish I had done some moneyline parlays but that’s my cross to bear).

 

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But enough recapping; let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 8. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

We have a full 16-game NFL slate this weekend with no byes and no international games. Have it be Tuley Noted that I’m listing the games in betting rotation order, though some kickoffs are out of order (Eagles-Bengals moved to early 1 p.m. ET timeslot with Bears-Commanders to the later window at 4:25 p.m. ET). 

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Los Angeles Rams

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

Some NFL fans might scoff at this Thursday night matchup with the Rams in last place in the NFC West at 2-4, but I see a live home underdog. I’m not saying SoFi Stadium is a big home-field advantage, but don’t forget LA upset the 49ers 27-24 back in Week 3 as 6-point road dogs, and they’re getting healthier. Regular Tuley’s Takes readers will also recognize this as a “mini-anti-swagger play” against the Vikings, who won their first five games of the season before suffering their first loss, 31-29, vs. the Lions on Sunday. I’m sure you’ve heard on VSiN that teams are 0-4 SU and ATS the week after facing the Lions this season. I wouldn’t be betting the Rams just because of that, but it helped push me to not require the hook at +3.5 to put in my Circa and Westgate contest picks early.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Rams +3 (pool play: Rams 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF and also 55/45 in SU pools).

Tennessee Titans at Detroit Lions (-11.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

I really have to step back here and take a cleansing breath. Longtime readers know I love me some double-digit underdogs in the NFL – they’ve been so good to me over the years. However, I don’t bet them blindly like I used to because there are bad dogs just like there are bad favorites. The Titans have let me down several times this season (0-3 ATS when I’ve played them, including losing 34-10 at the Bills on Sunday as 9.5-point road dogs. Now they’re the biggest dog of the season, +11.5, and it’s scary to trust them with Will Levis still not back, though it’s not much of a step down to Mason Rudolph, who wasn’t too bad at 25-for-40 for 215 yards in the blowout. I’m also willing to fade the Lions to have a letdown after their big divisional win over the Vikings.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Titans +11.5 (pool play: Titans 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions still 90/10 in SU pools).

Baltimore Ravens (-9) at Cleveland Browns

1:00 p.m. ET

Again, regular readers will be thinking they’re reading my mind when we have a divisional home underdog of more than a TD, but this is where I’m trying to be more selective in which dogs to back – and I’m done with the Browns even before Deshaun Watson’s season-ending injury. For fantasy purposes, I can see Jameis Winston being a valid pickup (his Pick-Sixes just means he gets the ball back quicker to run up more stats), but I’m not counting on him to match Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Co. score for score. The Ravens average 31.1 points per game (compared to 15.6 for the Browns) and have the No. 1 offense in the NFL by nearly 50 yards per game at 461.4 ypg, with the Lions No. 2 at 441.8.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Ravens 85/15 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line on this game was Packers -3.5 last week before the Jaguars routed the Patriots 32-16 in London, and the Packers pulled out a 24-22 non-covering win vs. the Texans. That usually wouldn’t warrant an uptick in the spread, but the Packers are still a public team. The Jags don’t get a bye week even after two weeks in London and traveling back, but that’s like their second home now, so I’m not downgrading them for that, especially since their only other win was 37-34 over the Colts in Jacksonville in Week 5. I’ll take the home dog here.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Jaguars +4.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, though Packers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-5)

1:00 p.m. ET

Regular readers know the Texans are my team this season, and they came through for us at +3 in their 24-22 loss at the Packers. My “dog or pass” disciples know I’m not going to lay the points with them here (especially since the Colts continue to cash tickets no matter who is at quarterback), but I’m not going to fade them either, as I’ll just be cheering for them to open up a two-game lead in the AFC South.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

The Dolphins have been the worst offense in the NFL since Tua Tagovailoa’s latest concussion, as Miami is No. 32 in the league at 11.7 points per game. Tagovailoa is expected to be back, so I understand why the Dolphins are home favorites against the inconsistent Cardinals, but I don’t agree with them laying more than a field goal. The Cardinals have upsets of the 49ers and Chargers and, except for blowout losses to the Commanders and Packers, Kyler Murray keeps them in most games. This looks just like Week 1 when the Dolphins were 3.5-point home favorites vs. the Jaguars (when Tua was healthy) but didn’t cover in a 20-17 victory.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Cardinals +3.5 (pool play: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, though Dolphins still 60/40 in SU pools).

Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1:00 p.m. ET

Both these teams were 4-2 heading into Sunday. The advance line for this game was Buccaneers -1.5 last week before the Falcons were run over 34-14 by the Seahawks and the Bucs lost 41-31 on Monday Night Football. That would normally not lead to a change in favorites, but the Tampa Bay training room is a M*A*S*H* unit, so the Falcons have moved to divisional road chalk. I’m not willing to take the short price with the undermanned Bucs, but I will use them to lead off my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” in 2-point, 6-point teasers at +8.5. 

Because of how the lines are falling this week, we don’t have as many “advantage teasers” to go through the key numbers of 3 and 7, but we can still use Bucs +8.5 with the Commanders +8.5 vs. the Bears and Eagles +8.5 at the Bengals. Like last week with the Commanders, for my chalk-teaser readers, the best option is the Chargers -1.5 vs. the Saints.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Buccaneers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests at -2.5 or lower, plus 67/33 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears (-2.5) at Washington Commanders

4:25 p.m. ET

Caleb Williams was the No. 1 draft pick and favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, but Jayden Daniels outperformed him early and is now the -145 favorite at Circa Sport, with Williams at +112 as of Wednesday afternoon). That’s where it sits despite Daniels’ rib injury that makes him uncertain for the potential head-to-head matchup. The race could be decided by which QB leads their team to the playoffs, with Washington currently 5-2 and Chicago at 4-2, so this is still a pivotal game on many levels. The Commanders were -2.5 on the advance but it has flipped to the Bears -2.5 with Daniels’ questionable status. These teams are pretty comparable, so I’ll just use the Commanders in my teaser portfolio (note: if Daniels does start and the Bears become short dogs again, I wouldn’t talk late bettors from teasing the Bears on Sunday: see Colts-Titans in Week 6).

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Commanders +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bears 55/45 in ATS contests and 60/40 in SU pools but would flip those if Daniels cleared to play).

New York Jets (-7) at New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. ET

OK, we have the same quandary as the Browns as we have a terrible team being a home underdog of a touchdown or more. Drake Maye hasn’t been terrible since taking over for the Pats, but the Jets still have the No. 7 defense, so I’m not willing to back him here, especially losing some value with the line dropping from the +7.5 opener. Besides, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Jets’ skill players put it together against New England’s No. 25 defense.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, more at +7.5, but Jets at least 80/20 in SU pools).

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Seattle Seahawks

4:05 p.m. ET

The advance line for this game was Bills -3 before both won easily on Sunday (Seahawks 34-14 at the Falcons and Bills 34-10 vs. the Titans) and hasn’t budged. I’ve been burned jumping in front of the Bills’ train the last two weeks and would need the hook at +3.5 to fade them here.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5)

4:05 p.m. ET

The advance line was Chargers -6 before the Saints were blown out 33-10 by the Broncos last Thursday night. The line reopened Chargers -7 on Sunday afternoon at the Westgate SuperBook before they lost 17-15 at Arizona on Monday night. I don’t understand why the line has risen to 7.5, but I’ll take the hook as my VSiN colleague Matt Youmans, and I have done very well over the years fading overpriced Chargers teams despite the coach or starting QB.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Saints +7.5, though Chargers -1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers as we shoot for a middle (pool play: Saints 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chargers 70/30 in SU pools).

Philadelphia Eagles at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)

1:00 p.m. ET

I wish I had grabbed the Eagles +3 on the advance line last week as it’s now below a field goal, but that puts it in the “advantage teaser zone,” so we’ll just play that as these two teams are pretty even (as the Eagles are where they were expected to be at 4-2 while the Bengals got off to their customary close start but have clawed back in the wild-card hunt at 3-4). This should come down to a one-score game.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Eagles +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).

Kansas City Chiefs (-10) at Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 p.m. ET

The Chiefs are the poster child for when we say we bet numbers and not teams. I was thrilled to get them as +1.5 road underdogs in San Francisco and was rewarded with the 28-13 minor upset. However, we’re back to fading them as double-digit divisional road favorites. The Raiders suck, but they usually get up for their AFC West rival and Gardner Minshew gives them an upset chance or to at least stay within one score.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Raiders +10 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests – higher at +10.5, lower at +9.5 – but Chiefs 90/10 in SU pools).

Carolina Panthers at Denver Broncos (-10)

4:25 p.m. ET

Nope, not gonna do it. Nope, not even when I believe that the Broncos are overinflated after the advance line was just Broncos -4.5 before they routed the Saints 33-1, and the Panthers were blown out 40-7 by the Commanders. I was on Carolina in that no-show and not willing to take them here even as double-digit dogs against the inconsistent Broncos.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Panthers 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Broncos at least 85/14 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

8:20 p.m. ET

This Sunday nighter has lost a lot of its luster with the Cowboys at 3-3 and the 49ers even worse at 3-4, so this is almost a must-win for both teams. The advance line was 49ers -6.5, so it’s dropped more than 2 points with the loss to the Chiefs (plus their injuries). The Cowboys are coming off their bye week, but I just can’t pull the trigger on the short line.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: 49ers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

New York Giants at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

The advance line on this Monday night matchup was Steelers -4.5 before the Giants were routed 28-3 by the Eagles, and the Steelers blew out the Jets 37-15 in Russell Wilson’s first start. I can understand the line adjustment, so it’s still not enough for me to back the Giants in an underdog role as they’ve managed only 10 points combined in their last two losses as the 29-20 Week 5 upset in Seattle.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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