Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 9 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

After starting October by getting beat up in NFL Weeks 5 and 6 in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we rebounded by winning the last two weeks. Even though Week 9 technically starts Thursday, Oct. 31, on Halloween Night, we basically turn the calendar to November (and clocks back an hour early Sunday) as we head down the back stretch of the NFL season (and in the convergence of seasons which includes a couple of sports equinoxes with all four major sports playing this past week, we use a horse racing term with the Breeders’ Cup this weekend, too).

I went 4-2 ATS with my Best Bets in this space last weekend with wins on the Rams +3, Jaguars +4.5, Cardinals +3.5 and Raiders +10 while losing with the Titans +11.5 and Saints +7.5. Going in, it didn’t look like a great card, but we had a lot of fantastic finishes (shoutout to Alcoa for old-timers who know what I’m referring to).

 

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For the record, we’re back over .500 with our Best Bets at 23-21 ATS, nothing to write home about, but where we’ve really been making bank has been our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” recommendations for 2-team, 6-point teasers (even though it’s getting harder to find them for cheaper than -125) as they again came through as we swept our main underdog legs on the Buccaneers +8.5, Commanders +8.5 and the Eagles +8.5. 

Tuley Noted: again, in the beauty of teasing coin-flip games, those who were late to make their plays and instead took the Bears when Washington went to favoritism also cashed. And we also suggested Chargers -1.5 for the chalk players out there, so everyone should have been happy.

But enough looking back; let’s get to our takes for NFL Week 9. For newbies to these Tuley’s Takes column, I’ll go over each game and try to come up with my Best Bet, but remember that “pass” is a legit option if there’s no value in the point spread. You don’t have to bet every game! However, I also give the aforementioned “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” of 2-team, 6-point teasers and my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those in contests where you do have to pick every game.

We have a 15-game NFL slate this weekend with the 49ers and Steelers on their bye weeks. Have it be Tuley Noted that I’m listing the games in betting rotation order, though some kickoffs are out of order (most notably, Jaguars-Eagles flexed out of the Sunday Night Football spot and moved to 4:05 p.m. ET and the Colts-Vikings flexed to Sunday night).

Houston Texans at New York Jets (-2)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET

I feel like I’m in a Twilight Zone episode here. Despite being a disappointing 2-6, the Jets take money every week. I understood it earlier in the year, but not really since their ugly 10-9 home loss vs. the Broncos after closing as 8.5-point favorites. And then they lost to the Vikings in London, then got bet down to 1-point home dogs in the Week 6 Monday nighter before losing 23-20 to the Bills. They also got bet in Week 7 before getting routed 37-15 at the Steelers on Sunday night and then got upset 25-22 this past Sunday by the lowly Patriots. 

Before that game, the Jets were -1.5 on the advance line for this Thursday nighter, so I thought surely the 6-2 Texans would get bet to favoritism, right? Nope, the Jets have been bet up to -2 at most books as of Wednesday afternoon. On Breeders’ Cup Week, I “can’t look a gift horse in the mouth,” so I’ll take any points I can get with the better team, plus let’s kick off our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” by going through the key numbers of 3 and 7 to Texans +8. We’ll use it as the first leg in our 2-team, 6-point teasers to the Browns +8 vs. the Chargers, Cowboys +8.5 at the Falcons and Seahawks +7.5 vs. the Rams.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Texans +2, plus Texans +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 60/40 in rare ATS contests that use Thursday night game and also 55/45 in SU pools)

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (-3/-3.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET

This is an ugly game, but longtime “Tuley’s Takes” readers probably already know I’ll be taking the lesser of two evils and playing the Patriots as a classic “swagger play” after they snapped a six-game losing streak with the aforementioned 25-22 upset of the Jets on Sunday. The Titans are also certainly fadeable as vulnerable chalk after getting routed by the Lions 52-14. We also mentioned last week in our winning picks of the Rams over the Vikings (which was also in a mini-anti-swagger spot) about teams being 0-4 SU and ATS the game after facing the Lions – and that’s now 0-5 SU and ATS with the Vikings’  loss. There were still a couple of +3.5s available as of this writing, but +3 +100 is certainly acceptable as well as +150 on the money line.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 or +3 (pool play: Patriots 65/35 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, plus 55/45 in SU pools).

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line for this game was Chargers -4.5 before they routed the Saints 26-8 and the Browns upset the Ravens 29-24 as 7.5-point home underdogs. The market gave more credit to the Browns with Jameis Winston and the line reopened Chargers -3 at the Westgate on Sunday afternoon. It’s now down to 2, so I can’t take the short number, but I’ll still tease the Browns up over a touchdown as part of our teaser portfolio.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Browns +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chargers still 60/40 in SU pools).

New Orleans Saints (-7.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

OK, I know I got burned for betting on the Panthers +10 at the Broncos this last Sunday as they lost 28-14. So, I get how oddsmakers had to be thinking that not many people are looking to back them anytime soon and they would have to raise the line on this game, which was Saints -4.5 on the advance line last week. However, the Saints looked just as pitiful in their 26-8 loss at the Chargers, so why had this line gone up a full field goal and through the key number of 7 to Saints -7.5. Regular readers know I have to fade such a move, even with an ugly team like the Panthers.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Panthers +7.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Saints still 75/25 in SU pools).

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-6)

Sunday 1:00  p.m. ET

Before the season, this was expected to be one of the marquee games of Week 9, but the Bills are running away with the AFC East at 6-2 with the Dolphins at 2-5 and even losing 28-27 to the Cardinals in Tua Tagovailoa’s return in Week 8. With the Bills hitting their stride with two straight blowout wins (34-10 over the Titans two weeks ago and 31-10 over the Seahawks on Sunday), it’s hard to fade them right now. I might talk myself into the Dolphins by kickoff, but they won’t be among my top five plays in the big contests, so call this a lukewarm lean.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Dolphins 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bills still 70/30 in SU pools).

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

The advance line for this game was Falcons -2.5. It reopened Falcons -2.5 and sat there until some books started moving to -3 on Wednesday. Still, it remains in the “teaser zone” as a dog of under a field goal that we can capture the key numbers of 3 and 7. The Cowboys, for all their shortcomings, can still rally to get within one score like they did against the Ravens and 49ers.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Cowboys +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Falcons 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-9)

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

The Ravens were -10 on the advance line for this game a week ago, but it’s dipped to single digits after they were upset 29-24 by the Browns and the Broncos beat the Panthers 28-14. In this case, I feel the line adjustment is very valid, and in fact, I’m surprised it’s not even lower with the way Bo Nix and the Broncos have been playing in winning five of their last six games after the dreaded 0-2 start. I have the Broncos as still underrated, while obviously the Ravens are overrated, so clearly a spot where I love the big dog even if not at double digits.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Broncos +9 (pool play: Broncos 65/35 in ATS contests, but Ravens still 70/30 in SU pools).

Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

It appeared the Bengals were hitting their seemingly annual midseason stride before getting routed 37-17 by the Eagles on Sunday. That led to this line being dropped from -9.5 on the advance line to just a touchdown. However, that’s still enough for me to take with the Raiders, who came through for us at +10 against the Chiefs in a 27-20 loss. If they can stay within a TD of the Chiefs, they can do the same against an inconsistent Bengals team.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Raiders +7 (pool play: Raiders 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +7.5, but Bengals still 70/30 in SU pools).

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET

This is another line that has dipped with the Vikings -6.5 on the advance line but down to -5.5 after they suffered their second straight loss after a 5-0 start. Meanwhile, the Colts came up short in a 23-20 loss at the Texans and have benched Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco. Fantasy players are rejoicing (at least those picking up Flacco), but it’s not enough for me to pull the trigger with the Colts.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders (-3.5) at New York Giants

Sunday 1:00 p.m. ET

Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are clearly one of the feel-good stories of the season, while the Giants are disappointing again. I’m sure some regular readers are sure I’m going to take the Giants as divisional home underdogs, especially with the possible letdown for the Commanders after their miracle Hail Mary victory over the Bears, but it’s still not enough points for me.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (pick ’em)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

The advance line on the game was Bears -1.5 before that gut-wrenching loss on the Hail Mary to the Commanders and the Cardinals upsetting the Dolphins 28-27. The line reopened Cardinals -1.5, which made sense. At either number, I would have considered teasing the underdog up to +7.5, but at pick ’em, I have to sit this one out. If the line steams to 1.5 either way, I give my blessing to tease away.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass for now (pool play: Cardinals 55/45 in all SU & ATS contests).

Los Angeles Rams (-1.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

If you read that Bears-Cardinals preview, you know I’m taking the Seahawks in teasers, especially as this line has also flipped with the Seahawks being favored on the advance line last week at -1.5 before the Rams showed new life in upsetting the Vikings 30-20 on Thursday night and the Seahawks lost 31-10 vs. the Bills on Sunday. This is a coin-flip that should be a one-score game either way.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Seahawks +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Rams 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Green Bay Packers

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET

This is a key NFC North game as the whole division is above .500. as they’ve been beating up on other divisions, but now we’re going to see more divisional games. The Lions lead the NFC North at 6-1, with the Packers at 6-2 without a bye yet and the Vikings at 5-2. Still, I have the Lions as the class of the division and are probably done fading them like I did Sunday with the Titans and three weeks ago with the Cowboys.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET

I was a little bummed that I only used the Eagles in teasers this past Sunday instead of betting them ATS or to pull the minor upset as their 37-17 rout was one of the easier wins of Week 8. However, I still don’t think that warranted this line going from -6.5 across the key number of 7 to -7.5. The Jaguars are still a mess overall at 2-6, but they returned from their two-game stretch in London to nearly upset the Packers before covering in a 30-27 loss, and if they can keep within a FG of the Packers, they can keep within a TD of the Eagles.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Jaguars +7.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 70/30 in SU pools).

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs (-9)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET

There are a bunch of NFL teams that are tough to handicap whether we’ll see their best or worst efforts in a given week, and that seems to be the case even more this year. However, the back-to-back defending champion Chiefs (the only undefeated team left at 7-0) are pretty consistent as they’re in every game, and I made the right call two weeks ago when they were underdogs vs. the 49ers. But as I’ve written often, they also let teams stick around and are often a great team to take points against like we did last week with the Raiders +10 as we cashed in the Chiefs’ 27-20 victory. Everyone was happy – except for those laying points with the Chiefs. The Buccaneers have lost two straight and are losing weapons, but Baker Mayfield should keep them within one score here even if Patrick Mahomes pulls out another straight-up win.

NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Buccaneers +9 (pool play: Buccaneers 65/35 in ATS contests, though Chiefs still 75/25 in SU pools).

For more NFL Week 9 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 9 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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