Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 9 Picks:
NFL Week 8 was not a fun time here in the Tuley’s Take home office. Regular readers probably knew that just from the fact the NFL favorites dominated at 11-2 straight-up and against the spread with the Dolphins +7.5 at the Falcons (which we had, fortunately, in a 34-10 outright upset) and the Jets +6.5 at Bengals (which we did not, as that also knocked out my last personal Circa Survivor entry).
Our posted Best Bets dropped to 20-19 ATS on the 1-4 ATS weekend. Teasers didn’t fare much better at 3-4. That was frustrating as we did fine with the favorites teased down under a FG – Bills -1, Eagles -1.5 and Patriots -1 – but all of the dogs getting teased up over a TD let us down even with the added points.
Hopefully, we can close the first half of the regular season (Week 9 of 18) strong this weekend. The further hope here is that with the chalk-betting public doing so well lately, oddsmakers will be forced to raise the lines to make them pay a premium, thus giving some more value on our underdog plays (though I do warn you we have some really ugly dogs this week!).
Let’s get to this week’s relatively short 14-game card (Eagles, Buccaneers, Jets and Browns are on byes). For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.
Here we go in rotation order.
THURSDAY
Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami
Tuley’s Take: As stated above, the Dolphins were our lone ATS winner in Week 8. That was partly a play against the Falcons, who we felt shouldn’t have been favored by more than a touchdown, but also because we felt the Fish were being thrown under the bus with coach Mike McDaniels on the hot seat and Tua Tagovailoa’s recent play, but that could still be dangerous like a wounded animal fighting for its life. I feel the same way with this Thursday nighter. Added to that, Lamar Jackson is returning for the Ravens and everyone seems to assume the Ravens’ offense will get back to normal, like when Jackson was 100 percent. I’m not so sure and certainly willing to back the Dolphins getting more than a TD at home.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Dolphins +7.5 (pool play: Dolphins 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF, but Ravens, still 67/33 in SU pools).
SUNDAY
Chicago (-3) at Cincinnati
Tuley’s Take: The advance line for this game was Bengals -1.5 last week before they lost 39-38 to the previously winless Jets. I get how that caused this line to reopen Bears -1.5, though they also lost 30-16 to the Ravens, snapping a four-game win streak. Regular readers will recognize this as a “mini anti-swagger” play against the Bears, but I’m not willing to take the Bengals ATS and instead want to use them to start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. Again (like last week when it didn’t turn out so well no matter what combos we used) we have several choices in the so-called “teaser zone” to capture the key numbers of 3 and 7: Giants +8.5/+9 vs. 49ers, Steelers +9 vs. Colts (though not sure if I’ll use this one myself), Lions -2.5 vs. Vikings, Broncos +7.5 at Texans, Bills +8 vs. Chiefs and Cardinals +8.5/+9 at Cowboys. Mix and match as you see fit, and hopefully you choose better than I did last week, and certainly shop around for the best lines and lower juice.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Bengals +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Bears still 65/35 in SU pools).
San Francisco (-2.5/-3) at New York Giants
Tuley’s Take: The 49ers have overcome a lot of injuries and are 5-3 despite losing to the Texans on Sunday, so it’s not surprising they’re road favorites here. The Giants have been much more competitive since Jaxson Dart took over at QB, though they’ve dropped two straight, starting with the historic fourth-quarter collapse in Denver and then at Philadelphia on Sunday when they also lost rookie stud RB Cam Skattebo. However, I expect them to bounce back at home. The last time they were at Met Life Stadium was the 34-17 upset of the Eagles in the Week 6 Thursday nighter. There have been some +3s out there (for newbies, that’s what the -2.5/-3 means in the header), so I would consider them ATS getting a field goal, but otherwise the play is to put in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with the other aforementioned teams.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Giants +8.5 or +9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Giants 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).
Atlanta at New England (-5.5)
Tuley’s Take: The advance line on this game was Patriots -3 last week and reopened -4.5 after the Patriots routed the Browns 32-13, especially because the Falcons were routed 34-10 by the Dolphins. The Pats were quickly bet to -5.5 on Sunday night and went to 6 early in the week, but I believe that was an overadjustment. Unfortunately, we missed the +6 as it has dropped to +5.5 as of deadline late Wednesday afternoon (mostly because Atlanta coach Raheem Morris said earlier that QB Michael Penix Jr. is trending toward a return), but I still feel comfortable at +4.5 or better.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Falcons +5.5 (pool play: Falcons 60/40 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 67/33 in SU pools).
Indianapolis (-3) at Pittsburgh
Tuley’s Take: It’s tough to fade the Colts, who have the NFL’s best record at 7-1, right now at such a low number. As I stated above, I’ve been considering them for my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio. Still, I’m a little gun-shy after they weren’t able to keep up with the Packers on Sunday night (also at home), and the Colts’ offense is clicking (league-high 33.8 points per game) even more than the Packers, and the Indy defense is also better than Green Bay’s D.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Steelers +9 possibly in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests and 65/35 in SU pools).
Carolina at Green Bay (-13)
Tuley’s Take: The Panthers are tough to bet on the road, but they did manage to beat the Jets 13-6 two weeks ago. They’re coming off an ugly 40-9 home loss vs. the Bills, but that was with Andy Dalton, and they should get a boost with the return of Bryce Young, who earlier this season led back-to-back upsets of the Dolphins and Cowboys. The Packers are 5-1-1, but I don’t feel they’ve been as dominant as their record indicates and the defense is a little overrated since the arrival of Micah Parsons (yes, they make big plays, but still give up a lot of yards and points to be laying this many in my humble opinion). The Packers haven’t won by two TDs since Week 1, so another 10-point win like last week makes everyone happy.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Panthers +13 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contest, but Packers still 90/10 in SU pools).
Minnesota at Detroit (-8.5)
Tuley’s Take: Sticking in the NFC North, the advance line for this was Lions -7.5 and jumped to -9.5 even with Detroit on a bye last week after the Vikings were routed 37-10 by the Chargers on TNF. With Carson Wentz placed on injured reserve on Monday and J.J. McCarthy returning, the line has settled at 8.5. I’m not looking to back the Vikes with McCarthy in this spot (and not motivated to fade the Lions now either), so let’s add Detroit as a chalky leg in our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as they just have to beat their divisional rivals by a field goal.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Lions -2.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 80/20 in SU pools).
Denver at Houston (-1.5)
Tuley’s Take: This was pick ’em on the advance line last week. With the way the Texans struggled to start the season and how the Broncos have played, I wasn’t surprised to see this reopen Broncos -1 after both teams won on Sunday. However, I am shocked, shocked that the line has flipped to Texans -1.5 as I’m not sure the right team is favored now. I’m tempted to take Denver on the money line, but the safer/better bet looks like teasing the Broncos up over a TD and just cheering for a one-score game.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Broncos +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Texans still 60/40 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5) at Tennessee
Tuley’s Take: I circled this game as a potential double-digit home underdog earlier this week, but the line has dipped from +10 to +9.5. That doesn’t seem like a big deal, but it got me questioning if I should still take Tennessee. I said in the intro that we had several ugly dogs this week, but I can’t pull the trigger here. Even though I’ve seen glimmers of competence from Cam Ward and the Titans, they’ve continually come up short, even when getting a lot of points. The latest was being unable to cover +15 against the Colts on Sunday (granted, no shame in that with how the Colts are rolling), but in their prior games they lost by 18 vs. the Patriots and by 10 at the lowly Raiders as you have to go back to Week 8 and their miracle rally against the Cardinals to find a close game (and they should have been down even more in that came and never had a chance except the Cardinals imploded in every possible way)..
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 90/10 in SU pools).
Jacksonville (-3) at Las Vegas
Tuley’s Take: This line has been the most solid on the board with both teams coming off bye weeks, though Circa did dip to Jaguars -2.5 -115 on Wednesday. I don’t know who is backing the Raiders (maybe rich Las Vegas locals?), but it’s not me. Hard pass.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Jaguars 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at -2.5, and 65/35 in SU pools).
New Orleans at Los Angeles Rams (-14)
Tuley’s Take: If you read the intro about me landing on some ugly dogs this week, I’m sure you circled this game without looking. You know I love double-digit NFL underdogs, even in this era where they’re not the automatic play they used to be, and we get this with the Rams coming off their bye week (the public usually loves betting teams off byes, especially when playing an unpopular team) against a Saints team that has lost three straight since the Week 5 win over the Giants (pre-Dart). I’m also going to go with the Under 44 (correlated parlay, anyone?) as the Rams’ defense is No. 3 in the league at 16.7 points per game and the Saints’ D has been playing better in recent weeks, so expect a relatively low-scoring game, which also helps dogs getting big points.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Saints +14 and Under 44 points (pool play: Saints 67/33 in ATS contests, but Rams still 90/10 in SU pools).
Kansas City (-2) at Buffalo
Tuley’s Take: I guess the NFL and the networks can’t put these teams in prime time every week, but this is the marquee game of Week 9 on Sunday afternoon. These teams have been duking it out for years now, and we expect another shootout that should be decided late. That puts us obviously on the Bills as the pivotal game in the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio as we capture the key numbers of 3 and 7 with the live home dog.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Bills +8 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contest, but Chiefs still 60/40 in SU pools).
Seattle (-3) at Washington
Tuley’s Take: The Commanders let us down at +12.5 on Monday night in their 28-7 loss at the Chiefs. They stuck around as we expected and were tied 7-7 at halftime, and I hope some longtime readers/followers did a mini-hedge/shot at a middle” on the Chiefs -5.5 in the second half. That’s a situation I’ve written about many times over the years. With Jayden Daniels expected back this week, I’ll give the Commanders another shot as this game should be closer to pick ‘em, and I could make the argument that they should be favored at home against a Seattle team that isn’t as good as its 5-2 record.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Commanders +3 (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, higher if contest offers +3.5, but Seahawks will 65/35 in SU pools).
MONDAY
Arizona at Dallas (-2.5/-3)
Tuley’s Take: I guess this MNF game looked good on paper before the season with Dak Prescott vs. Kyler Murray. Maybe. Anyway, the Cowboys are basically favored just due to home-field advantage in a game that should be a back-and-forth shootout, assuming Murray is fully recovered from his mid-foot sprain. The line is too short to take the inconsistent Cardinals ATS, but we’ll see how many legs from our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio we can get live to the Cardinals on Monday night to cap off the weekend.
NFL Week 9 Best Bet: Cardinals +9 or +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests and 67/33 in SU pools).
For more Week 9 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 9 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
