Tuley’s Takes – NFL Wild Card Best Bets, Picks and Predictions:

The NFL regular season is over, we’re on to the Wild Card round of the playoffs, and we couldn’t be happier in the Tuley’s Takes home office. The season started great with our “dog or pass” plays benefitting from a lot of underdogs covering against the spread (17-12-1 ATS in the first two weeks, 58.6%, and 35-25-2 ATS, 58.3%, after four weeks), but it all reversed once the calendar turned to October with favorites going 10-4 ATS in Week 5 on Oct. 3-7 on the way to finishing 20 games over .500 (30 after Week 2) at 140-120-7 ATS (53.8%) with five games closing pick ’em.

Dogs actually led 8-7-1 ATS to close the regular season in Week 18, but we still only managed to split 3-3 ATS as I swept my three plays in the early Sunday window with the Bears +10 at the Packers, Panthers +8.5 at the Falcons and Cowboys +6.5 vs. the Commanders while losing the rest.

 

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My “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio,” which has carried me most of the season, started great with the first leg of our 2–team, 6-point teasers using the Steelers +7.5 vs. the Bengals on Saturday night, but split Sunday’s legs with a win on the Patriots +8.5 vs. the Bills and losing on the Vikings +8.5 at the Lions.

We’re obviously hoping that the trend of chalk covering again and again reverses back in the playoffs, but as always, we take it one game at a time with our “dog or pass” approach.  We’ll also continue looking for the top plays for our “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” each weekend of the playoffs. I usually don’t do my patent-pending “Pool Play Percentages” once the regular season ends, but I’ve heard from more readers who like to hear me quantify the team’s SU and ATS chances for their own money-line wagers, plus I’m entering more postseason picking contests this year and will use them as well.

Los Angeles Chargers (-2/-3; 42.5) at Houston Texans 

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET

Regular readers know I made the Texans my value play for the Super Bowl at 22-1 way back after last season’s Big Game. Fortunately, I’ve already cashed on their Over/Under 9.5 wins and to win the AFC South, but I was obviously hoping they would contend more for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. I feel pot-committed to stick with them here in the Wild Card round, especially with home dogs being 10-3-2 ATS (76.9%) in the NFL playoffs the last 10 years, but I’m not thrilled with how they were playing down the stretch. So, the play is to use them as the first leg in my “Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio” in 2-team, 6-point teasers to get the spread up over a touchdown. The other Wild Card teaser options are the Commanders +9 at the Buccaneers and Rams +7 (hopefully +7.5) vs. the Vikings

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Texans +9 or +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 55/45 in ATS contests, but Chargers 60/40 in SU pools).

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5; 43.5)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET

The Ravens finished the season strong to pass the Steelers for the AFC North title and are clearly the better team, but I still don’t think this line should be anywhere near double digits. As I said on “Follow the Money” with Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard on Wednesday when Moss asked for my favorite underdog of the Wild Card round, these two teams obviously know each other very well since they play at least twice a year and usually play close games. I think the market is putting too much stock in the Ravens’ 34-17 win at home in their last meeting just three weeks ago, but don’t forget that the Steelers won the first meeting 18-16 in Week 11. I expect this playoff matchup to be closer to that game, with the Steelers covering the whole way with a shot at the upset. This line did hit 10. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see it again as the public gets more involved as the weekend approaches since they should be flush with cash after riding the favorites all season.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Steelers +9.5 or higher (pool play: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +10, but Ravens still 70/30 in SU pools).

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-9; 47)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET

I’m not as confident in this big dog as I am in the Steelers, but I still can’t resist getting more than a touchdown with a Bo Nix-led Broncos team that surprisingly averages 25 points a game. Granted, Josh Allen had an MVP-worthy season, and the Bills average 30.9 points per game, but the Broncos defense is actually better (allowing just 18.3 points per game compared to 21.6 for the Bills), and they lead the league in sacks. I certainly understand the Bills deserve to be favored here, but I have it as just over a field goal, not anywhere near a touchdown.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Broncos +9 (pool play: Broncos 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bill still 80/20 in SU pools).

Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5; 45.5)

Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET

I know it’s hard to use the “pass” part of “dog or pass” in the NFL playoffs, but I will in Sunday’s middle game. This is a rematch of the Week 1 game in Brazil that was won 34-29 by the Eagles. That’s just over this spread here, and I haven’t seen anything from either of these teams this season that makes me doubt this game will play out the same way. There’s also the uncertainty about the status of Green Bay QB Jordan Love, who left Sunday’s game against the Bears with an elbow injury. Love did practice Wednesday, so he’s probably good to go, but I’m still not taking the dog here. I kinda lean to the Under 45.5, but not enough to make that a Best Bet, either.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Eagles 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3; 50.5)

Sunday, 8 p.m. ET

I was hoping to get the hook at +3.5 on the Commanders here, but while some books have gone to -3 -115 on the Bucs, others look more likely to move to 2.5 as opposed to 3.5. Still, I’m going to play the Commanders one way or another, as they’ve certainly shown they can play with anyone with the maturation of rookie QB Jayden Daniels. Their stats are very similar to the Bucs, who have slight edges in points for and against, but the Commanders’ defense actually allows fewer yards per game. I have this as pick-’em, so I’ll fade the oddsmakers giving the Bucs points for home-field advantage. If you’re only able to get +3 (and having to settle for a push if the Bucs win by exactly a field goal, which they could in this seemingly inevitable one-score game), I’d opt to just tease Washington up over a touchdown.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Commanders at +3.5 or even +3, and/or +9/+8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Buccaneers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Minnesota Vikings (-1; 47.5) at Los Angeles Rams 

Monday, 8 p.m. ET

This line has been drifting down, but as of deadline late Wednesday afternoon, the VSiN Betting Splits page was still showing 60% of the bets and 85% of the money at Circa Sports on the Vikings and more than 60% on both at DraftKing, so we expect the Vikings to stay favored. The Vikings are certainly known for playing one-score games, so again, we’re looking to take the home dog to keep it close.

NFL Wild Card Best Bet: Rams +7 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Vikings 55/45 in all SU and ATS contests).

For more NFL Wild Card analysis, visit the NFL Wild Card Hub, exclusively at VSiN.com.

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