Tuley’s Takes – Super Bowl 60:
It feels like just yesterday that we were celebrating the start of the NFL regular season in the Tuley’s Takes home office, and yet nearly five months have passed, and we’re days away from Super Bowl Sunday.
We come into the Big Game (the euphemism used by a lot of Las Vegas sports books from the era earlier this century when the litigious NFL told our then-pariah of a city to not use the trademarked title) with a lot of momentum after cashing both our Best Bets in this column on the Broncos +4.5 in their 10-7 home loss vs. the Patriots and a 2-team, 6-point teaser on the Rams +8.5/Over 41 in their 31-27 loss at the Seahawks. That improved our playoff record to 6-2 (75%). We’re pretty happy with those results as followers of my betting recaps at @ViewFromVegas on Twitter/X know that favorites are 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS overall through the first three rounds, so dog bettors still had to be selective and we were. For totals bettors (and our overall record included 1-1 on totals), Over/Unders are also 6-6 heading into Sunday.
But enough looking back (except to learn from what we saw). Without further ado, let’s get to Super Bowl LX. For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on the game from my “dog or pass” point of view trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game (though no one we know ever passes on the Super Bowl, though there have been a few years when I couldn’t make a case for the dog and went with the total). I’ll then go through my recommended prop bets, starting with ones that are tied to my handicap of the game (you’ll see what I mean below) and then props that are independent from how I expect the game to play out but are either sharp plays or fun bets because it is Super Sunday after all.
Seattle (-4.5, 45.5) vs. New England
Sunday, February 8, 6:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Levi’s Stadium – Santa Clara, CA.
We almost got a matchup of No. 1 seeds as the Bo Nix injury in the divisional playoffs was probably the difference in the Broncos losing 10-7 in the AFC Championship Game (though we were thrilled they still covered for us). The Super Bowl advance line was mostly NFC -2.5 late in the regular season and playoffs, but crossed the key number of 3 to the Seahawks/Rams winner -3.5 if the Patriots made the Big Game. When the matchup was finalized two Sundays ago, DraftKings opened Seattle -3.5 while most Nevada books opted for -4 or -4.5. The line mostly settled at 4.5 during the bye week and still stood there late Monday while going to -5 at the Westgate SuperBook and South Point in Vegas as of this writing, so we’ll see if it continues to trend upward.
In my humble opinion, the adjustment has already been too much as I feel it should be closer to pick ’em (certainly not higher than a field goal) with this even matchup and I went ahead and took the Patriots +4.5 early last week in case the line movement reversed. I’m not too concerned with missing out on +5 as it’s a dead number that rarely lands (though I’m praying I don’t jinx myself by saying that!).
I also like that I’m fading the early betting as 66% of the wagers and 73% of the handle have been on the Seahawks at DraftKings, according to our VSiN Betting Splits page, with 67% of the bets and only 54% of the handle at Circa.
We all know the Seahawks have the No. 1 scoring defense at 17.1 points allowed per game, but the Patriots are No. 2 at 17.3 ppg. And an argument can be made that the Pats’ D is playing even better now after allowing just 3 points vs. the Chargers, 16 vs. the Texans and 7 at the Broncos. That’s 26 points in 3 games or 8.7 ppg. Handicapper Marc Lawrence of playbooksports.com, a frequent VSiN guest, points out that teams that have allowed fewer than 10 ppg in their playoff runs are 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS in the Super Bowl (3-2 SU and ATS if the underdog, as those dominant teams are usually favored).
The Seahawks’ offense has been a little more consistent (No. 2 at 29.2 ppg with the Patriots ranking No. 8 at 27.2 ppg), but not by much, as all those stats look more like a 1- to 2-point favorite in what should be a back-and-forth game decided by a field goal, so +4.5 or anything higher looks like value.
NFL Best Bet for Super Bowl LX: Patriots +4.5 or better
Super Bowl Props tied to my handicap
Game tied after 0-0 (following PATs) -120
This is tied to my handicapping of a close game, and I’ve loved this prop in the recent era with Super Bowl point spreads relatively close to pick ’em. I was at the Westgate SuperBook’s release of their prop last Wednesday night and got the +105 opener. They moved quickly to -120 (which was the price last year when it lost as the Eagles jumped out to a 24-0 halftime lead over the Chiefs on the way to a 40-22 blowout win), dropped to -110, but it’s back to -120 as of Monday morning, Feb. 2. I still recommend laying the short price as it cashed the two prior years and is 8-4 over the last 12 years (so the true odds are closer to -200 in my mind or at least -180, not that I would lay it if that high). It can happen as early as 3-3 in the 2019 game between the Patriots and Rams, or as late as 28-28 in 2017 when the Patriots famously rallied to catch up with the Falcons with 57 seconds left in regulation.
Largest lead Under 14.5 points -150
This is another prop tied to our prediction of a close, back-and-forth game, as we don’t expect either team to go up by more than two touchdowns. Since joining VSiN, I’ve gone 6-2 with this prop (and 8-3 the last 11 years despite also losing last year in the Eagles’ rout of the Chiefs). Again, we’re counting on both offenses to be able to rally if falling behind by two scores. I’m not crazy about the increased juice (I got it at -130 at the Westgate’s openers), but I’ve been actually relieved in recent years with the low spreads in most Super Bowls that the oddsmakers haven’t lowered the number to 13.5 (or increased the juice further).
Halftime Tie/Seahawks Win +1200 and Halftime Tie/Patriots Win +1800
This is basically a bet on there being a tie at halftime, again based around our prediction of this being a close, back-and-forth Super Bowl and hoping to cash our anytime tie bet at intermission to guarantee a win here, too. Since we don’t see “Will the game be tied at halftime?” prop offered anywhere, we turn to this “Double Result” at the Westgate and played both the Halftime Tie/Seahawks Win” at +1250 (missed the +1400 opener) and “Halftime Tie/Patriots Win” at the +2200 opener. This has been a long-term profitable play the years we’ve played it, as we cashed six years ago when the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl LIV was tied at 10-10 at the half and the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX that was tied 14-14. We just missed a couple of other times, so I believe it’s still worth a shot in games lined around a field goal (or that should be lined around there).
Sam Darnold to win Super Bowl MVP +120
I’m obviously pulling for the Patriots with my +4.5 wager, but in the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide, I went with a final score of Seahawks 24, Patriots 21 with the Seahawks winning but the Patriots covering, so that’s why I’m including this in the top section of props tied to my handicapping of the game. I guess you could see this as a bit of a hedge/shot at a middle, but I see it as value since the MVP is usually the winning team’s QB (and if we hit the middle, that’s just an added bonus!). I also got this at a better price of +130 at the Westgate last Wednesday night, but +120 or even +115 is still far better than hedging with the Seahawks’ money-line price around -220 or -230 (and also climbing).
Super Bowl props independent of my handicap
“Any other score” for first score +130
The first score is usually a touchdown, which is why TD is priced at -150, but with both teams having very strong defenses, we’ll count on an early stand to force a FG as the first score (though we also cash if there’s a safety). I could have included this in the correlated section due to my defensive comments, but I don’t see it that way as it doesn’t matter to me which team gets the first score, though it does help our cause overall if it’s the Patriots (and I will say that if you’re wanting to bet which team scores first that I’d also give the lean to the Patriots +105 in a coin-flip result).
First TD by Sam Darnold 40-1
This is always the most bet prop as everyone loves to cheer for who scores the first touchdown and it draws the biggest cheer of the whole game in all the Super Bowl parties I’ve attended over the years– and especially since it comes with a juicy payoff (I’ve cashed this several times over the years with my favorite being when the Bears’ Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a TD against the Colts in Super Bowl XLI at 50-1!). Seattle RB Kenneth Walker III is the +400 favorite with Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njiba the second choice at +600. But if I’m going to play it I’d rather shoot for the moon with a real long shot, and we again turn to Darnold. He’s not a running QB (like Hurts last year), but we often see QBs take matters into their own hands in big games, so it’s actually value on Darnold at 40-1 (which would also improve his MVP case). If you want to apply that logic to Drake Maye, he’s much lower at 16-1 (which we also wouldn’t mind for our game wager).
Shortest TD Under 1.5 -160
We used to get a nice, juicy plus price on this each year, but then we cashed on it in eight of nine years, so oddsmakers gradually started raising the juice each year. We didn’t mind – until it didn’t hit two years ago at -160 – but then it cashed again last year with Jalen Hurts scoring the first TD on a 1-yard run. So, it’s been an awesome play for yours truly. As I’ve written over the years, this can cash in multiple ways: organically with a team moving the ball to the 1-yard line and punching it in, or by having a defensive pass interference call in the end zone place the ball at the 1-yard line. Note: it’s much more rare, but it also would cash if an offensive player falls on a fumble in the end zone for a 0-yard fumble recovery or if a defensive player were to score on a fumble recovery or interception in the opposing team’s end zone for a 0-yard score.
Will there be a 2-point conversion attempt, Yes +140
The days of NFL coaches being afraid of going for 2-point conversions (or on fourth down for that matter) are over, and we don’t even need for one to be successful to cash this bet, just an attempt (FYI: a successful 2-point conversion pays +290).
Number of different players to throw a pass, Over 2.5 +170
If you’re looking for another plus-price prop with a decent chance to cash, I like this one as it can happen at any time (like last year with Kenny Pickett going 0-1 in relief of Jalen Hurts in the Eagles’ rout). An injury to a starting QB is the easiest way to win this prop, but can also come on trick plays (like the “Philly Special” in Super Bowl LII with TE Trey Burton throwing a TD pass to QB Nick Foles). The Seahawks haven’t had a non-QB throw a pass in two postseason games, but Cooper Kupp did throw a pass in the regular season. I’m mostly expecting the Patriots to try a trick play as WR Efton Chism did throw a pass to QB Drake Maye in the wild-card win over the Chargers, plus coach Mike Vrabel was famously part of so-called gadget plays when he was a Patriots TE, so I fully expect him to have something up his sleeve for his first Super Bowl as a head coach.
For more Super Bowl predictions and analysis, visit the Super Bowl Betting Hub, exclusively on VSiN.
