Super Bowl LVIII Betting Recap

As we come down from the high of another winning Super Bowl here in the Tuley’s Takes home office, we still can’t wrap our head around the fact that the football season is over. On the one hand, we’re five months removed from the start of the NFL season, and that seems like another lifetime ago, but on the other, it felt like yesterday, and it’s flown by. Super Bowl LIX seems so far away.

But it’s always great to end a season on a winning note, and we certainly did that with our Best Bets here (and in the VSiN Super Bowl Betting Guide) on the Chiefs +2 and Under 47.5 points in the Chiefs’ 25-22 overtime win over the 49ers. Hopefully, those following along grabbed the Under as we gave it out at 47.5 (some 48s were available), though I’m sure some waited too long and got a push at 47 points. I trust none of my loyal longtime readers waited and then took Under 46.5, as that would go against everything we preach here.

 

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I also hit my recommended 2-team, 6-point teaser on Chiefs +8/Under 53.5, as well as my two top prop bets on “Game to be Tied After 0-0” as it was tied 16-16 with 5:46 remaining in the fourth quarter and also “Largest Lead Under 14.5 points” as the only time that was really in jeopardy was when the 49ers jumped out to a 10-0 lead.

I also won on Chiefs First Half +1.5 -115 and 49ers Under 24.5 points -120, but I did lose my long-shot props on the “Halftime Tie,” but that’s OK as it was paying between +750 and +950, and we don’t have to hit that every year (or even every couple of years) to make it worth playing. I also lost other long-shot props on Patrick Mahomes (16-1) and Brock Purdy (20-1) to score the game’s first TD, as well as Isiah Pacheco to win MVP (30-1), but I can live with those, too, as we had a winning day. 

For a full recap of Super Bowl LVIII from a betting perspective, check out the VSiN story I file right after the game on Sunday night as I run through the Top 10 Prop Bets that tell the narrative of the Big Game.

Super Bowl LIX Futures

Invariably, when the Super Bowl ends every year, everyone starts asking if the champion will repeat – and, in this case, if the Chiefs will three-peat – and who are the best future bets for those who don’t mind tying up part of their bankroll for a full year. Odds are from DraftKings, but obviously, shop around for the best prices.

Houston Texans (22-1): This would be an amazing story, as the Texans are basically one year removed from blowing the chance at the No. 1 overall draft pick. That cost coach Lovie Smith his job (well, that was never given as the official reason, but it didn’t help, right?). The Houston organization recovered quickly by hiring DeMeco Ryans and then taking CJ Stroud with the No. 2 pick, and all he did was end up as Offensive Rookie of the Year.

For most of the season, it looked like the Jaguars would run away with the AFC South, but the Texans stole the division and routed the Browns 45-15 in the wild-card round (after not getting the respect they deserved as 2-point underdogs despite being at home) before being ousted by the Ravens in the divisional playoffs. I know several people who took a flier on the Texans this past season. They were live longshots (in my humble opinion) and certainly have the opportunity to take another step forward if Ryans can continue to improve the defense to go with the already high-powered offense. Tuley noted: The Texans are also 12-1 to win the AFC.

Dallas Cowboys (20-1): It’s very trendy to knock the Cowboys’ championship drought (their last Super Bowl title was in 1996 at Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe, Arizona, when I was single, running around Phoenix and had Cardinals season tickets) and recent postseason woes (they were upset 48-32 as 7-point home favorites in the wild-card round last month). However, the fact remains that they were No. 1 in the NFL in scoring offense (29.9 points per game) and No. 5 in scoring defense (18.5 points per game), and they should be right there in the mix again.

Frankly, I’m surprised they’re offered this high since they are such a public team overall (unlike the Texans above, with a much smaller fan base). I could make the argument, and I guess I am, that this is the better betting value just based on the fact the Texans’ price is probably a little short just because of how far they’ve come in such a short time after being the longest odds on the board last season at a consensus 200-1. 

Super Bowl LIX Odds (DraftKings)

  • San Francisco 49ers +550
  • Kansas City Chiefs +650
  • Baltimore Ravens +900
  • Buffalo Bills +950
  • Detroit Lions +1200
  • Cincinnati Bengals +1200
  • Miami Dolphins +1700
  • Philadelphia Eagles +2000
  • Green Bay Packers +2000
  • Dallas Cowboys +2000
  • Houston Texans +2200
  • New York Jets +2500
  • Los Angeles Chargers +2500
  • Jacksonville Jaguars +3000
  • Chicago Bears +3000
  • Atlanta Falcons +3000
  • Los Angeles Rams +3500
  • Cleveland Browns +3500
  • Indianapolis Colts +4500
  • Minnesota Vikings +5500
  • Seattle Seahawks +6000
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6500
  • Pittsburgh Steelers +7500
  • Arizona Cardinals +8000
  • New Orleans Saints +8000
  • Washington Commanders +10000
  • New York Giants +10000
  • New England Patriots +10000
  • Las Vegas Raiders +10000
  • Denver Broncos +10000
  • Tennessee Titans +15000
  • Carolina Panthers +25000

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