Tuley’s Takes Today 9/12: Monday Best Bets, NFL Week 2 leans, Contest Corner


Sunday was Christmas morning in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we had the opening Sunday of NFL action. It was worth the wait, at least from an entertainment standpoint and your overall experience probably depended on how your bets and contest plays went (47 percent of Circa Survivor entrants are one and done).
The big news was the upsets even though favorites and underdogs actually split 7-7 ATS on the day (see all my betting stats in the recap section below). Look at this list of the teams that lost (or tied, as you must win) on Sunday and the number of players who used them out of the 6,133 entrants in Circa Survivor:

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Colts 875
Titans 708
49ers 703
Bengals 460

That took care of 40 percent of the field, and when the dust had finally settled on Sunday night, 47 percent of the field was gone as only 3,254 remain alive with 569 still needing the Broncos on Monday Night Football (1 on Seahawks).
Personally, it was a bit of a disappointing day for yours truly, Dave Tuley, as we went 1-2 ATS with our Best Bets posted here in my columns last week (win on Steelers but losses on Raiders and Cardinals, plus losing our teasers on Ravens/Colts and Vikings/Cowboys) and going 2-3 ATS with our contest entries in Circa Sports Million and Westgate SuperContest. It was frustrating as there were plenty of dogs to find but we were just on the wrong ones.
Let’s recap the rest of the Sunday action and try to close the weekend with Best Bets on Monday.

Sunday’s recaps

NFL: Buccaneers beat Cowboys 19-3 on SNF to wrap up opening Sunday. They also covered after closing as 2.5-point road favorites (game stayed way Under the closing betting total of 49.5 points; bettors were on the right side as it opened 52 at several books). Faves went 9-4-1 SU on Sunday and tied dogs at 7-7 ATS (10-4-1 SU and 8-7 ATS overall in Week 1, including Thursday Night Football). Road teams went 8-5-1 SU Sunday but home teams led 8-6 ATS (road 9-5-1 SU, home 8-7 ATS including TNF). Unders 9-5 (10-5 including TNF).

More NFL: Faves 5-3-1 SU (Colts-Texans ended in 20-20 tie with Texans covering %plussign% 7), but dogs led 6-3 ATS. The psets were by the Steelers (%plussign% 7 in OT at Bengals), Bears (%plussign% 6.5 vs. 49ers) and Browns (%plussign% 1.5 at Panthers). The Lions (%plussign% 6) covered in loss vs. Eagles. Road teams 5-3-1 SU but home teams 6-3 ATS (home dogs 4-1 ATS). Unders 5-4. In the “afternoon” session (4:25 p.m. ET/1:25 p.m. PT kickoffs), faves went 3-1 SU and ATS with only upset by Giants %plussign% 5.5 in 21-20 win at TEN on late 2-point conversion (note: Vikings closed -2 in 23-7 win  vs. Packers after being a dog all summer). Chiefs -6.5 and Chargers -3.5 both covered. Home/road teams split 2-2 SU and ATS. Unders went 3-1.

MLB: Faves went 10-5 Sunday with upsets by the A's (%plussign% 150 in 10-3 rout vs. White Sox), Mariners (%plussign% 112 in wild 8-7 win vs. Braves), Rangers (%plussign% 105 in 4-1 win at Blue Jays), Red Sox (%plussign% 105 in 1-0 win at Orioles) and Giants (-102 in 4-2 win at Cubs). Home teams 8-7. Overs 9-6.

More MLB: Faves lead 1,245-811 SU (60.6 percent) on the season with 32 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now back well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 1,106-990 (52.8 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 1,024-962-108 (51.5 percent).

Contest Corner

Circa Sports Million (4,691 entrants at $1,000 apiece) Top 5 Most-Selected Teams are 3-1 in Week 1 with Broncos -6.5 at Seahawks pending Monday Night Football. Wins were by No. 1 choice Vikings %plussign% 1.5 vs. Packers, Ravens -7 at Jets and Steelers %plussign% 6.5 at Bengals while the lone loss so far was by the Eagles -4 at Lions.

SuperContest (1,598 entrants at $1,000 apiece) Top 5 Most-Selected Teams went 3-2 in Week 1 with wins on Vikings %plussign% 1.5, Ravens -7 and Steelers %plussign% 6.5. Losses were by the Eagles-4 and Panthers -1.5; SuperContestGold (80 entrants in the $5,000 winner-take-all version of the SC) went 4-2 with Browns and Patriots tying for No. 5 spot. 

Monday’s Takes

Broncos -1/Over 38 (2-team, 6-point teaser): This wasn’t a Best Bet in my columns last week, but I gave it out on the “Greg Peterson Experience” show on VSiN last night (shameless plug: check me out at 12:15 a.m. ET Monday/9:15 p.m. PT after the games are done to hear the above betting recap numbers as well as my takes on the day’s action and looks ahead to the MNF game and next week’s openers). Russell Wilson makes his Denver debut against his former team and we just need the Broncos to basically win the game (bettor beware: this didn’t work out so well with the Colts teased down to -1 on Sunday!). As I told Peterson, we saw Unders get off to a strong start, but we believe the crackdown on defensive holding will still lead to more Overs moving forward and this total is low enough that these two teams can get Over just 38 points. I’m looking at something like a 23-17 or 27-13 score, so it’s not like we even need a shootout.

Rangers 1st 5 %plussign% 110 at Marlins: We’ve had some success with the Rangers and Glenn Otto (5-8, 4.80 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and Rangers are 2-1 in his last 5 starts). Those aren’t great numbers, but they’re still better than Miami’s Trevor Rogers, plus we know how hard it is for the Marlins to score many runs.

Early NFL Week 2 leans (also given out on “Greg Peterson Experience”):
VIkings %plussign% 3 at Eagles on Monday Night Football
Seahawks %plussign% 8.5 at 49ers (fading Trey Lance; line to be affected by MNF)
Saints TBD vs. Buccaneers (Saints’ D has Tom Brady’s number…off the board with Bucs playing Sunday night)