Saturday was an action-packed day in and out of the Tuley’s Takes home office.
It started with me staying up late and filing Saturday’s edition of this column (and frankly falling asleep before I posted). Then, I had to get up early to post my Team Tuley’s Thoroughbred Takes column.
I also signed up some proxy clients for a couple of the football contests here in town and was able to finally find shock for my pool (I bought a whole box in case the shortage continues!).
In between all the other stuff, I was also following horse racing picks (didn’t go so well) and I was also playing in two online horse racing tournaments (those didn’t go well either).
In the morning, I also lost my lone NFL preseason game on the day with the Broncos-Bills Under 42.5. I didn’t expect either team to be playing many starters and just wanting to get out of the game healthy, but someone forgot to tell the Bills’ backups the plan as they jumped out to a 28-6 halftime lead and I stopping following along when it went Over the total at 35-9 on the way to the Bills’ 42-15 victory.
The day got better with my Best Bet as the A’s 1st %plussign% 160 cashed as the A’s were trailing 2-0 going into the bottom of the 5th and rallied for 3 runs to get me the cash! I didn’t luck out as well with the Rangers 1st 5 %plussign% 146 as they were leading the Twins 1-0 heading into the bottom of the 5th but the Twins rallied to tie it 1-1 for a push. But, hey, it’s better than a loss!
Let’s recap the rest of Saturday’s (full-game) betting results and then look for more 1st 5 plays on Sunday along with my last NFL Preseason Week 2 pick for the weekend.
Saturday’s recaps
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Leon Edwards stunned Kamaru Usman with 5th-round KO to win UFC welterweight belt at UFC 278. The ViewFromVegas is he did it as consensus closing %plussign% 300 underdog (high of %plussign% 320 at Westgate SuperBook, Wynn Las Vegas and Station Casinos) and was around %plussign% 1500 before the final round at some books.
NFL preseason: Faves went 4-3 SU with Steelers-Jaguars closing pick-'em. Faves/dogs split 3-3-1 ATS with that 1 PK. The push was Lions (-1) in a 27-26 win at Colts. Road teams went 5-3 SU and 4-3-1 ATS. Unders 5-3. In Preseason Week 2, faves are 7-4 SU and 6-4-1 ATS, road teams are 7-5 SU and 6-5-1 ATS, while Unders lead 8-4 (after Overs were 13-3 in Preseason Week 1).
More NFL: Faves lead 15-12 SU with 2 pick-'ems and tied 13-13-1 ATS overall. Road teams lead 15-13 SU, but home teams lead 14-13-1 ATS (home/road stats don't include neutral-site Hall of Fame Game). Overs only lead 18-11 after 8-0 start (so Unders lead 11-10 since then).
MLB: Dogs went 10-6 Saturday with biggest upsets by the A's (%plussign% 175 in 4-3 win vs. Mariners), Blue Jays (%plussign% 170 in 5-2 win at Yankees), Rangers (%plussign% 156 in 4-3 win at Twins), White Sox (%plussign% 153 in 2-0 win at Guardians) and Rockies (%plussign% 150 in 4-3 win vs. Giants). Home teams went 9-7. Unders 9-5-2 with pushes in KC-TB (7) and SEA-OAK (9).
More MLB: Faves lead 1,070-708 SU (60.2 percent) on the season with 27 pick-'ems (faves usually win around 59 percent; still ahead of pace; gap had been narrowing but now well over 60 percent). Home teams lead 955-849 (52.9 percent, usually closer to 54 percent but on the rise). Unders lead 884-822-96 (51.8 percent).
Sunday’s Takes
Cardinals %plussign% 6 or higher vs. Ravens: This line was as high as 7 earlier this week as oddsmakers were trying to make bandwagon jumpers pay a premium on the Ravens, who have won a preseason record 21 straight games and are 19-2 or 18-2-1 ATS depending on whose betting stats you follow. However, early bettors agreed with us that the line was set way too high for an exhibition game (even with the Ravens’ streak) and it was bet down to %plussign% 5.5 or even %plussign% 5 at most books. I’m still hoping we see a better line by Sunday’s 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT kickoff. As I wrote in Saturday’s column, the Wynn and William Hill books were back up to 6 as of early Saturday, and now on early Sunday morning it’s 6 at most books and we hope it continues to go higher as DraftKings (VSiN’s parent company) has the line at Ravens -6 -115. I’m pretty much pot-committed with this play as it’s been featured in the newsletter as me saying to “fade the Ravens' preseason winning streak,” but frankly, it’s OK with me if they win their 22nd preseason game in a row – as long as they don’t cover the spread.
Blue Jays 1st 5 %plussign% 100 at Yankees: The Yankees continue to struggle, so I have no problem fading them, especially with a lineup like the Blue Jays plus Alek Manoah (12-6, 2.71 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) on the mound. We’re also going to go against the Dodgers here with the Marlins 1st 5 %plussign% 120 with Sandy Alcantra (11-5, 1.92 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) on the mound.
Good luck today (and every day!).
