Using Calendar Invites as an NFL Betting Tool:

Let’s face it, no one loves calendar reminders. Every time one pops up it takes me back to my corporate America days grinding away with a loaded Outlook schedule. However, now that I’ve flipped to the sports gambling world, they are some of my favorite things to see, especially for the NFL.

Each year heading into the NFL season, I go through each team’s schedule and pick out specific points in time where they have key moments. No team has a “balanced” schedule; there are going to be tough patches and cupcakes. Bad travel spots pop up. Teams will have players return and start to perform to the expected level. All of these things affect the futures, division odds and awards markets. 

 

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The problem, though, is that during the week-to-week grind of the college and NFL season with the NHL and NBA kicking off and MLB playoffs winding down, it’s easy to miss an opportunity. That’s where calendar invites can be a valuable tool for bettors.

At this point, I’ve got over 20 calendar invites just waiting to pop up on Monday or Tuesday mornings throughout the season with player or team-specific bets that I want to check up on. It is my way of being able to put my preseason opinions on in-season plays “on autopilot”. With so much going on, I know I won’t miss setups that I have identified before the season starts. 

Of course, not all of the invites will result in a bet, but for one minute of work, I can guarantee I will not miss or forget any of these setups.

Here are a couple of examples of the invites I am looking forward to the most!

Arizona Cardinals

I like the chances for the Cardinals this season. The offense could be special with the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and a healthy Kyler Murray, which should help carry a defense that very well could stink. The preseason win total for them is 6.5 and heavily juiced to the Over. The apex moment in their schedule is Week 6. They open at Buffalo, then host the Rams, Lions and Commanders before road tilts at San Francisco and Green Bay. They will be meaningful underdogs in 5 of those 6 games and 1-5 is the most likely outcome. 

That is where my calendar invite pops up. The rest of the schedule includes home games against the Chargers, Bears, and Patriots, with road games against the Vikings and Panthers. 

A 1-5 start will lower the market’s value on a Cardinals team when really all they did was play to expectations and it could present an opportunity to get a 5.5 in-season win total. Worst case, it’s 6.5 without the juice or a simple pass.

MVP Market

How about Patrick Mahomes? I have a ticket in on Jared Goff at a big number and I expect the Lions offense to start out hot. Mahomes is the other candidate that I’m interested in and he’s got an invite in my calendar. 

The Chiefs start out with Baltimore, Cincinnati and Atlanta – three likely playoff teams – before a pair of easier games and then their bye. After the bye is a visit to the 49ers. I’ve got an invite before and after the game. It’s a marquee game so it could shift the market with a Chiefs win thus why I have it before, but a loss may be even better. Mahomes will jump up in price and Kansas City may not lose a game the rest of the way. The toughest two remaining games are at the Bills, a team I have serious concerns about, and the Texans in KC in December. There is a real chance the Chiefs finish 11-0 or 10-1 after that road tilt at San Francisco. If that’s the case, Mahomes is a legit MVP target that you can add to the portfolio at the right price (Chiefs SB and AFC No. 1 seed would also be in play at the correct number).

Those are just two of the examples that I have set up. You can find similar linchpin moments for every team and some players. Injuries may happen, and your opinion of a team will shift, but it is always nice to see a calendar invite pop up. Even if you just laugh it off, it is a chance to see if you can attack a betting market.

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