Vikings vs. Chargers – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
TJ Hockenson Over 34.5 receiving yards (-109, DraftKings)
TJ Hockenson Over 3.5 receptions (-146, DraftKings)
I’ve had recent success double-dipping on TE props in national games recently with Noah Fant last Thursday Night, and Zach Ertz on MNF in Week 6, so I’m doing it again with Hockenson to open Week 8 (TE Week). Los Angeles gives up the sixth-fewest receiving YPG (38.7) and the fifth-fewest receptions per game (3.9) to TEs, but they haven’t played many great ones, and they give up the 15th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs in-line, so it’s more of a middling matchup than a tough one. Last week, Tyler Warren got them for 4/69/1 on five targets and Darren Waller in Week 6 put up 2/21/1 on only three targets. Back in Week 4, they gave up 4/40 with a TD to Giants TEs on six targets. Out of 34 TEs to run at least 75 routes, Hockenson’s .42 FP/RR against Cover 3 is 13th-best, and his .38 FP/RR against Cover 4 is ninth-best. He’ll see those two shells around 59% of the time, and he averages a strong 2.00 YPRR on 56 routes against those coverages. He’s averaged 5.3/42.3 receiving and 6.5 targets per game with a TD in four games with Carson Wentz, and the Vikings are 3.5-point road underdogs, so we’re likely looking at another 35-40 pass attempts for Wentz. Hockenson also got hosed on a called TD on the field that was overturned last week because no one knows what a catch is now, so he may get a payback TD in this one.
Ladd McConkey Over 55.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
It’s not an incredible schematic matchup for Ladd, but he’ll see a lot of slot corner Josh Metellus, who is targeted at the fifth-highest rate among all starting CBs in Week 8, per Fantasy Points Data. He also gives up 0.36 FP/RR, the most among their top three CBs, and he got roasted by the Eagles last week. He’ll likely need to catch 5 balls to get to 56 yards, but this is a passing team now, as LA is averaging 42 pass attempts a game in their last five, and the Vikings are potent enough on offense to keep Justin Herbert throwing the ball 35+ times, Getting LT Joe Alt back (along with RT Trey Pipkins) should increase Herbert’s chances of pushing the ball downfield.
Carson Wentz Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Los Angeles allows the third-most rushing YPG (30.6) to QBs along with the 10th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to QBs in the running game only (+.08). Wentz has been banged up for a few weeks, but he doesn’t have an injury designation this week, and his rushing line has crept up in each of the last three weeks: 2/4 > 2/12 > 3/13 > 4/28. With the Vikings 3.5-point road underdogs, we’ll probably see another 40+ pass attempts, which gives him a good chance to take off 2-3 times at least.
Jalen Nailor Over 15.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
Ancillary guys like Nailor are always a little risky, but they can also hit on a single catch, and Nailor has been a consistent force for the Vikings. He has between 3-5 targets in all six games with two or more catches and 28 yards or more in five of six games. Nailor came up small in Week 4 in Ireland with only 1 catch for 2 yards on four targets, but that was their ugliest offensive showing of the season with Carson Wentz. Nailor’s longest reception in each of his other games would have hit this prop, as he’s hauled in passes for 26, 20, 22, 17, and 28 yards in those five games. He’ll often see CB Tarheeb Still, who gives up the most FP/RR among their top three corners, and with 35-40 pass attempts likely with the Vikings being 3.5-point road underdogs, clearing 16 yards should be incredibly doable for Nailor.
Jordan Mason Over 54.5 rushing yards (-118, BETMGM)
As of 9 a.m. on Thursday morning, everyone is waiting for word on Aaron Jones, but I think Mason can get to this number even if Jones is active, since it’s a short week and he’s been out for five weeks with a hamstring, so he should be limited if he returns. If Jones ends up being inactive, then this line will go up 10+ yards and I’ll be out, so I’ll go in before the news breaks and take my chances (but I’ll also list this prop last on my list this week, just in case). Backup Zavier Scott is questionable with a wrist injury, which should help Mason’s chances. The Chargers allow the third-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.43), 5.13 YPC, and the 13th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to RBs in the running game only. Jonathan Taylor (16/94/3 rushing), De’Von Achane (16/128/2), and Jacory Croskey-Merrit (14/111/2) have all crushed them in their last three. Out of 37 RBs with at least 50 carries, Mason is fifth with a 63.9% success rate on man/gap concept runs, and his 4.8 YPC is 10th-best. A solid 42.9% of his runs are on those concepts, against which LA is giving up a 56.5% success rate (seventh-highest) and 4.90 YPC (9th-highest) along with 5 TDs (fifth-most). The Vikings desperately need to run the ball to stay ahead of the down and out of third-and-long situations, and their OL will have four of five starters back (assuming LT Christian Darisaw isn’t a surprise inactive), so they should have success with Mason.
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