On Sunday, December 14, the Dallas Cowboys welcome the Minnesota Vikings to AT&T Stadium in a Week 15 Sunday Night Football showdown. We’re diving into all of the primetime NFL games this season and this one is no different. So keep reading for a Vikings vs. Cowboys betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 15 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Vikings vs. Cowboys
When: Sunday, December 14 at 8:20 pm ET
Where: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Channel: NBC
Vikings vs. Cowboys Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday, December 12. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Cowboys -270, Vikings +220
Spread: Cowboys -5.5 (-112), Vikings +5.5 (-108)
Total: Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110)
Vikings vs. Cowboys Analysis
Who’s playing quarterback for the Vikings in this Sunday night game: JJ McCarthy or ‘Nine,’ his gameday alter ego? Since returning from an ankle injury, McCarthy has been extremely inconsistent under center. He had three total touchdowns in a win over the Lions on November 2. That was his first game back. The 22-year-old then struggled mightily in his next three starts. However, McCarthy might be coming off his game as a professional, as he threw for 163 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in a 31-0 win over the Commanders last week. And realistically, Minnesota will have a shot to win this game as long as the young quarterback can avoid back-breaking turnovers.
It was pretty evident last week that Dallas’ defense is still a bit of an issue. The Cowboys allowed Jared Goff to throw for 309 yards in a highly efficient outing, and the Lions averaged 7.2 yards per play in that one. That said, this isn’t the worst matchup in the world for McCarthy. Dallas is actually 30th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.198) this year, even if the last few weeks have been a little better. I’m also pretty convinced the Vikings are going to be able to run on the Cowboys. While Dallas has a talented defensive line, Minnesota is first in the NFL in Run Block Win Rate (75%). The Vikings are starting to get healthier up front, which is going to be big for this offense. Not only will it allow Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason to get going, but a successful running game will makes things a lot easier on McCarthy.
Minnesota will, however, have to show up defensively. The Dallas wide receivers are spectacular, with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens making up one of the league’s most lethal one-two punches. Dak Prescott is also highly accurate to all parts of the field. That’s a little scary when talking about a Vikings defense that has been a little shaky throughout the year. However, Minnesota’s -0.042 Dropback EPA per play allowed is good for sixth in the league, plus the team has one of the best coordinators on the planet calling the shots. Brian Flores should have his group ready to go here, even if it means playing a bit of a bend-don’t-break defense. As long as the Vikings can keep the Cowboys from hitting home runs, this should be a game they can keep close.
In general, the coaching in this game favors Minnesota in a big way. While this Vikings team has been a little disappointing, it’s hard not to feel like Kevin O’Connell and Flores give Minnesota the better coaches on both sides of the ball. You also have to wonder if last week’s win over Washington will be the thing that gets this team going. While the Commanders aren’t very good, the Vikings are 9-2 straight-up and 6-4-1 against the spread under O’Connell when coming off a game in which they scored at least 30 points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are just 2-4 ATS as favorites under Brian Schottenheimer.
It’s also hard not to like that Steve Makinen had this spread estimated as Dallas -4.8 as of Friday. That means there’s a nice edge on the Minnesota side when looking at the actual spread of 6/6.5.
Vikings vs. Cowboys Player Props
LEAN: Justin Jefferson Over 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Jefferson has had some trouble getting going with McCarthy under center, but 60 receiving yards in this specific matchup seems reasonable. Our WR-CB Matchup Tool actually likes Jefferson to do well against DaRon Bland. Also, while this isn’t exactly a huge edge to the Over, our OptaAI player prop projections have Jefferson finishing with 60.83 receiving yards here. You’d also have to think that there will be a serious effort to get Jefferson the ball here. He’s one of the best receivers in football, but he comes into this game having had four catches for 15 yards over the last two weeks. That’s unacceptable.
Vikings vs. Cowboys Pick
I would prefer to have 7 or 7.5 in this game, but I’ll take the 6.5. Dallas still has some issues to work through defensively, so this is a matchup that I believe O’Connell can exploit. That said, I’d be a little surprised if the Cowboys just run the Vikings off the field. While Minnesota hasn’t lived up to expectations this year, this is still a talented and well-coached group. That should be enough to give Dallas a game.
Bet: Vikings +6.5 (-115)
