VSiN Analytics NFL Week 2 Report

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VSiN Staff
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VSiN Analytics Report for Week 2

The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 2. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

 

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NFL Odds | NFL Betting Splits | NFL Matchups

 

NFL betting systems turn Week 1 results into Week 2 profit

These systems take into account the NFL Week 1 results and use them to build actionable betting concepts for Week 2 (article with further analysis on VSiN website).

1. Week 2 teams playing as favorites OR underdogs of less than 3 points against an opponent that scored more than 30 points in the prior week are 44-16 SU & 38-19-3 ATS (66.7%) since ’03 (+17 units, R.O.I.: 28.3%, Grade 62)

2023 Plays: SAN FRANCISCO, KANSAS CITY, NEW ENGLAND, ATLANTA

2. Teams that beat their Week 1 point spread by 8 points or more in non-conference games are 20-9-3 UNDER (69%) the total in Week 2 since 2002 (+10.1 units, R.O.I.: 31.6%, Grade 64)

2023 Play: PLAY UNDER in SAN FRANCISCO-LA RAMS

3. Teams playing a second straight divisional game in Week 2 are an impressive 34-16-1 SU and ATS (68%) since 2003 (+16.4 units, R.O.I.: 32.2%, Grade 65)

2023 Plays: CLEVELAND, CINCINNATI, CAROLINA, LA RAMS, INDIANAPOLIS

4. Teams playing as underdogs in their second of back-to-back divisional games are 15-14-1 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in Week 2 since 2004 (+9 units, R.O.I.: 30%, Grade 63)

2023 Plays: LA RAMS, CAROLINA

5. Teams that lost (or tied) as road favorites in Week 1 have bounced back with a record of 20-11 SU and ATS (64.5%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons (+7.9 units, R.O.I.: 25.5%, Grade 60)

2023 Plays: CINCINNATI, BUFFALO

6. Teams that lost on the point spread by more than 14 points in Week 1 divisional games are 14-7 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) in Week 2 since 2007 (+7.4 units, R.O.I.: 35.2%, Grade 65)

2023 Plays: SEATTLE, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, NY GIANTS

7. Teams that won close games in Week 1 (3 points or less) are 37-18-1 UNDER (67.3%) the total in Week 2 since ’05 (+16.1 units, R.O.I.: 28.8%, Grade 65)

2023 Plays: UNDER in Seattle-DETROIT, Chicago-TAMPA BAY, LAS VEGAS-Buffalo, MIAMI-New England, NEW ORLEANS-Carolina

8. Week 2 teams that went under their Week 1 total by at least 17 points are 25-17 OVER (59.5%) the total since 2008 (+7.3 units, R.O.I.: 17.5%, Grade 52)

2023 Plays: OVER in Baltimore-CINCINNATI, CLEVELAND-Pittsburgh

9. Teams that lost by double-digits in Week 1 have responded by going 45-25-2 ATS (64.3%) in Week 2 over the last 11 seasons (+17.5 units, R.O.I.: 24.3%, Grade 60)

2023 Plays: SEATTLE, CAROLINA, CHICAGO, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS

10. Teams whose opponent played in the weeknight season-opening game and thus have extra rest are 14-22 SU but 21-14-1 ATS (60%) in Week 2 since ’05 (+5.6 units, R.O.I.: 15.6%, Grade 55)

2023 Plays: SEATTLE, JACKSONVILLE

11. Teams that recorded big Week 1 divisional wins by 7 points or more are 26-20 SU and 25-17-2 ATS (59.5%) since ’06 in week 2 (+6.3 units, R.O.I.: 14.3%, Grade 52)

2023 Plays: DALLAS, CLEVELAND, LA RAMS, JACKSONVILLE

 

Strategies using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 season. The stats of these systems are as of the start of the season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated article on Sunday morning.

DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “supermajority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BUFFALO, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, DETROIT, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, DALLAS, MIAMI, CLEVELAND

 

DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all sports that can be bet. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em. It’s safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, DALLAS, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

 

DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:

DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.

System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

 

DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).

System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

 

DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.

System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS, KANSAS CITY, LA CHARGERS, GREEN BAY, NY GIANTS, SAN FRANCISCO, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

 

DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of BETS backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) & 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, CLEVELAND

 

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher, and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.

System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, LAS VEGAS, BALTIMORE, KANSAS CITY, DETROIT, MIAMI

 

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a supermajority in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): LVR-BUF, BAL-CIN, IND-HOU, LAC-TEN, SEA-DET, CHI-TB, WAS-DEN, NYJ-DAL, CLE-PIT

 

DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for the supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.

System Matches (PLAY UNDER): KC-JAX, SF-LAR

 

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as retread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).

 

Rookie Coach Systems

In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 120-133-7 ATS (47.4%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.

System Match: *CONFLICT b/c HOUSTON and INDIANAPOLIS play against each other

 

Re-tread Coach Systems

Like the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. In fact, their record in home games is 79-116 ATS (40.5%).

System Match: FADE CAROLINA

Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites since 2013. They’ve gone 86-64 SU but just 49-90-11 ATS, for 35.3%!

System Match: FADE DENVER

Digging deeper into the two trends described just above, as home favorites, retread coaches have gone just 55-39 SU and 29-60-5 ATS (32.6%) in their first seasons over the last decade.

System Match: FADE DENVER

Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-135-5 ATS (39.7%)

System Match: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA

There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these retread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-126-6 ATS (42.7%).

System Match: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA

 

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward

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