VSiN Analytics Report for Week 6
The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.
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Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the Betting Splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published in the 2023 NFL Betting Guide Part 2, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the ’22 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
DK Betting Splits system #1: When more than 65% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 35-53 ATS (39.8%). The number for this “supermajority” in college football was closer to 80%. In other words, if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TENNESSEE, MIAMI, SAN FRANCISCO, INDIANAPOLIS, DETROIT, LAS VEGAS, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #2: The percentage breakdown can be expanded a bit for the number of bets. When 63%+ of the number of bets were on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group was just 66-92 ATS (41.8%). The NFL is the most public of all bet-able sports. If 63%+ of the bettors at DraftKings likes a particular side, fade ‘em.
It’s safe to assume that you don’t want to be part of the supermajority of DraftKings bettors on ATS wagers.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, MIAMI, CINCINNATI, SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, DETROIT, LAS VEGAS, PHILADELPHIA, LA RAMS, BUFFALO
DraftKings bettors were at their absolute worst last season when analyzing divisional games:
DK Betting Splits system #3: In NFL divisional games of 2022, DK majority handle bettors were absolutely awful, as this majority group was just 36-64 ATS (36%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, INDIANAPOLIS, MINNESOTA, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #4: Similarly to #3 above, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game last year, this majority group was just 37-60 ATS (38.1%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, JACKSONVILLE, MINNESOTA, LA RAMS
DK Betting Splits system #5: When the majority handle and the number of bets were on road favorites for an ATS wager, these majority groups were just 36-52 ATS (40.9%) & 35-53 ATS (39.8%) respectively. Both are losing propositions, and most often, these majorities match up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games, these majority groups were just 28-44 ATS (38.9%) and 29-44 ATS (39.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, BUFFALO, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group was 26-22 ATS (54.2%). This is another situation where going against the grain paid off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY): TENNESSEE
DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total last year was 44.2. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and odds makers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, the majority number of bettors struggled, going 28-53 ATS (34.6%). Not surprisingly, they sided with the favored team in 59 of the games.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, MIAMI, LA RAMS, DALLAS
DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the handle was on the Under in an NFL game total, this majority group was quite sharp, 26-18 ATS (59.1%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets produced a 23-17 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER BOTH): DEN-KC, NE-LVR
DK Betting Splits system #11: Quite the opposite of #11, the magic mark for a supermajority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably last season with a record of 38-63 (37.6%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses. On the number of bets, this same supermajority percentage produced a slightly improved 41-52 record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-TEN, CAR-MIA, IND-JAX, DET-TB, ARI-LAR, DAL-LAC
DK Betting Splits system #12: Call this one the Over trap, but when a supermajority (>=64%) of handle was on the Over, and DraftKings moved the opening total lower throughout the week, this majority group lost big, going just 9-29 (23.7%). Almost as if they were trying to bait more people into taking the Over. This is a classic example of where those behind the counter are smarter than those trying to cash the tickets.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): BAL-TEN, CAR-MIA, DET-TB
NFL Rookie/Re-Trend Coaching Systems
This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2023 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Jonathan Gannon (Arizona), DeMeco Ryans (Houston), Shane Steichen (Indianapolis) as well as re-tread coaches Sean Payton (Denver) and Frank Reich (Carolina).
Rookie Coach Systems
In a trend that seems to make sense as far as familiarity is concerned, the more familiar the opponent, the less successful rookie head coaches have been. Divisional games 123-135-7 ATS (47.7%), These are not groundbreaking betting numbers by any means, but it could serve as a foundational concept that the more familiar the opponent, the less successful the rookie coach.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE ARIZONA
Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #5-#12, they’ve gone 159-179-9 ATS (47%). Think of these trends when you see the schedules of the six rookie head coaches in 2023 released shortly.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE HOUSTON, FADE ARIZONA
Among the key challenges new head coaches face is keeping teams grounded after wins as they’ve gone 138-152-10 ATS (47.6%) in that situation.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS
Re-tread Coach Systems
Re-tread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons more successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in Weeks 1-10 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 89-141-7 ATS (38.7%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2013, when coming off a loss, the record has been just 94-131-8 ATS (41.8%)
System Matches: FADE DENVER, FADE CAROLINA
NFL rookie quarterback systems
These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The starters out of the gate in 2023 include Bryce Young (Carolina), CJ Stroud (Houston), and Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis), although others could join them down the road.
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are trending downward
Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.9% straight up and 50.4% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2004. The results of late are far worse. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie quarterbacks who started at least seven games in a season are just 148-277-2 SU (34.8%) and 195-229-3 ATS (46%).
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE CAROLINA, FADE HOUSTON
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 102-109-1 ATS (48.3%) in home games but just 93-115 ATS (44.7%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-18, they are just 27-80 SU and 42-63-2 ATS (40%).
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – Don’t fall for the big underdog point spreads with rookie quarterbacks
Since 2004, rookie starting quarterbacks facing underdog lines of 7 points or more have won just 26 games, going 26-159 SU and 75-101-9 ATS (42.6%).
System Matches: FADE CAROLINA
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #9 – By type of opponent, divisional matchups have been tough for rookie starting quarterbacks
The breakdown of success levels against Division, Conference, and Nonconference opponents has been definitive for rookie starting quarterbacks. Since the start of the 2013 season, versus non-divisional conference and nonconference opponents, they are about 49% ATS. However, against divisional foes, they are just 65-87-1 ATS (42.8%). As divisional dogs of 5 points or more, rookie QBs are just 7-61 SU and 25-42-1 ATS (37.3%) in that span.
System Matches: FADE INDIANAPOLIS
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QBs
In their last 102 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QBs have gone just 33-75-1 SU and 45-63-1 ATS (41.7%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Matches: FADE HOUSTON, FADE CAROLINA
NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
Shutouts Are Extreme
Teams that get shut out in a game have been solid bounce-back teams in the next outing, going 22-33 SU but 33-20-2 ATS (62.3%) since 2012.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+3 at Las Vegas)
Big-Time Offensive Performances
NFL teams that have gained an explosive 8.75 yards per play or more in any given game have responded the next week by going just 21-20-1 SU and 14-26-2 ATS (35%) in their last 43 tries.
System Matches: FADE MIAMI ATS (-13.5 vs Carolina)
Blowout Games Are Red Flags
NFL teams that lose on a point spread by 30 points or more in any given game have rebounded nicely the next week when playing as road underdogs of 3 points or more, going 8-18-2 SU but 20-7-1 ATS (74.1%) in their last 28 tries.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+3 at Las Vegas)
Don’t Dismiss Teams Off Dreadful Offensive Outings
NFL teams that lost, scored 7 points or fewer, and had 10 or fewer first downs in a game have performed admirably as underdogs in the next contest, 17-29 SU but 32-14 ATS (69.6%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches: PLAY NEW ENGLAND ATS (+3 at Las Vegas)
TNF, SNF and MNF Team Trends and Systems for the NFL
The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular-season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Since the home teams last won three straight ATS on TNF in September 2020, road teams have been on a roll, 28-23 SU and 32-17-2 ATS (65.3%) in the last 51.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER ATS
There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 18-17 SU but 9-24-2 ATS (27.3%). However, home-field advantage has picked up slightly in the second half of the season in recent years, with week 9-17 home teams going 14-17 SU and 15-18 ATS (75%) in that same time span. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Week 9 and later are 30-23 SU and 31-20-2 ATS (60.8%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY ATS
NFL Home Favorites of 7 points or more are on a 26-2 SU and 19-7-2 ATS (73.1%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season.
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY ATS
A long-running trend of Thursday night home-field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 12-13 SU but 7-18 ATS (28%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Matches: FADE KANSAS CITY
There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 3+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 15-12 SU and 20-6-1 ATS (76.9%) record.
System Matches: PLAY DENVER
Good TNF Team Trends
Kansas City 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in the last five
System Matches: PLAY KANSAS CITY
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
The biggest home favorites on Sunday nights, or those laying 7 points or more, have been solid of late going 15-2 SU and 10-7 ATS (58.8%) in their last 17 tries. Prior to that they were on a 5-13-1 ATS skid.
System Matches: PLAY BUFFALO
In SNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are just 19-20 SU and 14-23-2 ATS (37.8%) in the last 39. Under the total is also 19-12 (61.3%) in the last 31.
System Matches: FADE BUFFALO, also play UNDER in NYG-BUF
Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 9-14 SU and 9-13-1 ATS (40.9%) in their last 23, but those coming off a win are on a current 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS (64.7%) surge.
System Matches: FADE BUFFALO
Strangely, the league’s highest-scoring teams have not fared well on SNF of late, as those scoring 30+ PPG are 9-6 SU but 3-12 ATS (20%) in their last 15 tries against teams not scoring that much.
System Matches: FADE BUFFALO ATS
More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 8-20 SU and 10-18 ATS (35.7%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Matches: FADE BUFFALO
Good SNF Team Trends
Buffalo 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS wins since 2019
System Matches: PLAY BUFFALO
Under the Total SNF Team Trends
NY Giants eight straight Unders, scoring 11.6 PPG
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in NYG-BUF
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 9-8 SU and 11-5-1 ATS (68.8%) dating back to September 2021. The last 15 of these games have seen Under the total go 13-1-1 (92.9%) as well, games producing just 34.4 PPG.
System Matches: PLAY LA CHARGERS ATS, also PLAY UNDER in DAL-LAC
In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 21-19 SU but 10-28-2 ATS (26.3%) in the last 40.
System Matches: FADE LA CHARGERS ATS
Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 27-20 SU but just 16-29-2 ATS (35.6%) in the last 47 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Matches: FADE DALLAS ATS
Good MNF Team Trends
Dallas 6-2 SU and ATS in the last eight
System Matches: PLAY DALLAS ATS
Under the Total MNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 8-2 Under in the last 10
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DAL-LAC
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good Primetime (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Buffalo 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS primetime run
Dallas 9-3 ATS in the last 12
Kansas City 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS in the last 19 road primetime games
Systems Match: PLAY on these three teams
Bad Primetime (TNF. SNF & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 5-18 SU and 7-14-2 ATS in the last 23
NY Giants 3-20 SU since last back-to-back wins (9-14 ATS)
Systems Match: FADE on these two teams
Over the total Primetime (TNF, SNF, & MNF) Team Trends
Kansas City 17-5 Over surge in road games
System Matches: PLAY OVER in DEN-KC
Under the Total Primetime (TNF, SNF & MNF) Team Trends
Denver 14-2 UNDER since 2017
System Matches: PLAY UNDER in DEN-KC
Pre-Bye Week Systems and Trends
The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
Pre-bye week system #3
Play on HOME UNDERDOGS heading into their bye week. (Record: 32-17-2 ATS since 2015, 65.3%, +13.3 Units, 27.1% R.O.I., Grade 68)
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON ATS, PLAY NY JETS ATS
Pre-bye week system #5
Play Over the total in Monday night games featuring a team heading into their bye week. (Record: 30-15-1 since 2009, 66.7%, +13.52 Units, 30% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Match: PLAY OVER in DAL-LAC
Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday night. (Record: 23-18 SU and 26-13 ATS since 1996, 66.7%, +12.6 Units, 32.3% R.O.I., Grade 65)
System Match: PLAY DALLAS
CAROLINA Pre-Bye Week Game: 10/15 at Miami
